Published August 3, 2012 | By Krista Hendry

We at The Fund for Peace have been very excited about the way the Failed States Index (FSI) is being publicly debated in Indonesia. Our main goal in creating the Index is to call attention to issues and challenges many countries are facing. It is not meant as a shaming tool against any government. Rather, it is a tool we hope government and civil society will use to perform more in-depth analyses of the issues we measure based on local knowledge. They can then better map priorities, measure progress on issues, and hopefully identify gaps where they can work in collaboration to strengthen the various social, economic, and political indicators we assess.

Despite its name, we are not calling any country a "failed state." We prefer to think of it as a barometer of the continued pressures on the state, and capacity of the state and the society to cope with and mitigate the pressures they experience. The fact the debate in Indonesia has begun to move away from a focus on the term “failed state” to a discussion of how people in Indonesia locally define the issues is very welcome. For policy making we believe government and civil society within the country should work together to consider the issues and set priorities – and measure progress over time.

An international organization like The Fund for Peace is able to call attention to global issues by creating a global index. These are useful tools, but they are not the end of an assessment, but just the beginning.

Published June 18, 2012 | By Krista Hendry

One of the greatest challenges in assessing the potential for violent conflict or state collapse is data collection. Despite ten years of constant work to find or develop new ways to collect or create data, there is still much left to be done. Working with partners in the air and on the ground, we are trying to improve our ability to perform assessments with greater efficiency, accuracy, and at levels of granularity that makes the analysis more useful in the design of responses.

The Failed States Index (FSI) is a very high-level view of the world. It is possible to generate the Index each year for the entire world because we allow ourselves to focus on the nation-state. We recognize, however, that areas within each nation-state can be vastly different. We are also combining data for an entire year, and as we all know, the world changes much more dramatically. Sometimes a single event – one perhaps not foreseen even just the day before – can start a series of events that can lead to sudden violence or collapse.

Published June 18, 2012 | By J. J. Messner

Upon first glance, it could be easy to assume that there is very little new to be found in the 2012 Failed States Index. After all, Finland has managed to win back-to-back best-place on the Index and Somalia now has the ignominious distinction of five-straight worst-place finishes. Nine of the worst ten in 2012 are the same as in 2011; meanwhile, the “best ten” at the sustainable end of the index are the same ten countries as in 2011. So, nothing has really changed, right?

Wrong.

Though a quick glance of the 2012 Failed States Index could suggest business as usual, the Index actually saw some of the most dramatic shifts in the eight-year history of the Index, which was first published in 2005. In those eight years, three of the four most significant “worsenings” occurred in 2012. Prior to this year’s Index, the most significant decline had been Lebanon in 2007 – which worsened by 11.9 points – coinciding with the conflict with neighboring Israel. This year, two countries managed to beat that record, and both for very different reasons.

Unsurprisingly, the greatest worsening was that of Libya (a 16.2 point year-on-year rise from 2011), as the country endured a civil war, sustained NATO bombing and the overthrow and assassination of its reviled leader, Colonel Muammar Qaddafi. After finishing 111th on the 2011 Index, Libya now finds itself at 50th.

Published June 18, 2012 | By T. Anderson, R. Jaeger, F. Umaña, N. Manning, A. Whitehead.

1. Somalia As the situation in Somalia continued to deteriorate in 2011, the country remains at the top of the Failed States Index for the fifth year in succession. Ten out of twelve of Somalia’s indicators scores were above 9.0 on a scale of 10. Indeed, the Refugees and IDPs as well as the Security Apparatus indicator scores remain at the highest possible level of 10.0. The absence of a permanent national government for twenty years was aggravated in 2011 by an upsurge of violence, massive human rights abuses and natural disasters. Worsened social conditions have added to political instability which led to mass displacement and impoverishment. Somalia also continues to be a relentless headache for international shipping, with the unrelenting activities of Somali pirates deep into the Indian Ocean. Despite attempts by external actors such as the African Union and neighboring Kenya to intervene in the conflict, terrorist activity by al-Shabaab and general unabating lawlessness has hampered such efforts.
—Raphaël Jaeger

Published June 18, 2012 | By Patricia Taft

The most improved country in the 2012 Failed States Index, the landlocked Central Asian nation of Kyrgyzstan, seems an unlikely one. Since independence from Russia in 1991, the country has been beset with a host of problems that have spanned political, social and economic lines.

Like several of its Central Asian neighbors, the country plays host to various ethnic minorities, with Uzbeks the predominant group in the south of the country. Keeping in line with several other Central Asian Republics, Kyrgyzstan was ruled from independence by a series of authoritarian regimes which brutally quelled opposition and strangled freedom of expression in all its forms. Adding to the tinderbox are myriad demographic pressures resulting from disputes over natural resources, particularly in the Ferghana Valley, as well as the country’s complex relationship with Russia and, at times, the U.S.

When looking at Kyrgyzstan’s improvement in this year’s Index, it is impossible not to point out that last year, the country came second only to earthquake-ravaged Haiti in the category of states that had most worsened. Roiled by political turmoil that led to the ouster of long-time President Kurmanbek Bakiyev in April of 2010, the year quickly turned bloody when clashes between ethnic Kyrgyz and Uzbeks resulted in over 200 deaths in June. Clashes in the south of the country in 2010 also caused a large scale humanitarian emergency and IDP crisis, with hundreds of thousands of people, mostly ethnic Uzbeks, fleeing their homes. The attacks against ethnic Uzbeks in Kyrgyzstan further heightened tensions with neighboring Uzbekistan, already at a boiling point over Tashkent’s decision to shut down natural gas supplies to the country by 50%. Spillover from the June uprising, coupled with a generally worsening economy also caused upheaval in the Ferghana Valley, leading to riots and protests where dozens were injured.

Published June 18, 2012 | By J. J. Messner

It probably comes as little surprise that the most worsened country in the 2012 Failed States Index was Libya. As the convulsions of the Arab Spring reached Libya, the nation spiraled from protest to brutal repression to civil war to regime change.

Though Libya’s decline in the 2012 Index is hardly shocking, what does make it all the more remarkable is the scale of that decline. Indeed, the 16.2 point year-on-year increase since the 2011 Index marks the largest single year decline of a country in the history of the Failed States Index, eclipsing the previous record of 11.9 point jump experienced by Lebanon between 2006 and 2007 as a result of the short conflict with neighboring Israel. Libya also shot up 61 places, from 111th in 2011 to 50th in 2012.

With the support of NATO airstrikes, the rebels of the National Transitional Council (NTC) managed to overthrow the tyrannical Muammar Qaddafi and move the country more towards democratic governance. Were it not for the relative stability imposed upon the country towards the end of the year, there is every possibility that Libya could have worsened even more than it actually did.

Published June 18, 2012 | By Nate Haken

In analyzing the Arab Spring, metaphors matter. If it was a seasonal awakening of democracy we should throw open the windows, that is, welcome it. If it was a contagion of unrest, then we should board up the doors, i.e., control it. If it was a pressure cooker blowing its top, the response should be cautious and deliberate; in other words, we should manage it.

The Failed States Index (FSI) does not conclusively answer the question of which metaphor is most apt, though CAST, the methodology behind the index would tend to preference the last one, with its basic construct of pressures and institutional capacities as a theoretical framework for understanding state fragility and failure.

A look at the content analysis data, aggregated monthly by country, gives us a better picture of what happened over the course of the year. The beginning of the year was the most eventful in terms of protest and collective action. First, in January, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia went into exile. Then, in February, President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt stepped down. This was followed by three months (February, March, and April), of protests spilling across the region, including in Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Yemen. Taking an average of the protest scores for all 19 Middle East and North African, or “MENA” countries, the regional trend is clear.

The content analysis data measuring trends in protests for these countries were highly correlated—some more so than others. A group of countries that was particularly correlated over the course of the year was, Bahrain, Iran, Libya, Oman, Syria, and Yemen.

Published June 18, 2012 | By Natalie Manning

The Arab Spring was one of the biggest stories of 2011, and many of its effects have been registered in the 2012 Failed States Index — Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia and Yemen all saw their scores seriously worsen. For some, the tension has eased, at least for now. For others, conflict and instability continues.

The Arab Spring hit Syria in April 2011 with demonstrations in the southern town of Dara’a against the government’s heavy handed response to students who had spray painted anti-government slogans. The uprising quickly spread and President Bashar al-Assad’s security forces brutally cracked down on the population. By late 2011, the opposition had transformed from a peaceful movement into an armed insurrection. An estimated 13,000 people have died since the conflict began, and thousands more have been displaced as the country spirals further towards civil war.

Until 2012, Syria’s ranking on the Failed States Index had been steadily improving, moving up 19 places since 2005. However, in 2012, Syria was the third most worsened country, slipping 8.6 points, a change that ranks it as the fourth-most significant decline in the history of the Index. Syria’s performance so far this year also puts it at risk of continued decline in the 2013 Index, as a significant uptick in violence has already been witnessed in the first half of 2012.

Published June 18, 2012 | By Patricia Taft

Continuing its downward spiral in the 2012 Failed States Index, Greece, the cradle of democracy, continued to fall into chaos. For a second year running, the country worsened across almost every indicator score with the political and economic indicators experiencing the deepest decline. In 2011, the Greek economy continued to backslide as the unemployment rate hovered around 20% for the year, with an estimated 50% of young Greeks unemployed. As in 2010, political crises ensued, and the perceived legitimacy of the Greek government plunged as more and more Greek citizens questioned the ability of elected officials to drag their country out of the morass. Indeed, throughout 2011, the general worsening of the indicators which measure economic, political and social pressures evidenced that the financial crisis that had gripped the country for two years was quickly spreading across multiple sectors. Public rage was palpable with tens of thousands of Greeks taking to the streets in June to protest proposed austerity measures that included significant tax hikes.

Adding to the mayhem and impacting the economic and political trends, the catastrophe that was occurring in Greece brought into question the viability of such lofty ideals as pan-European prosperity and social and economic equality as the country dragged down its European Union brethren. Greece, which joined the Eurozone in 2001 after failing to meet the criteria in 1999, has long been the red-headed stepchild of the monetary union. By mid-2011, after only ten years of membership, it had racked up a debt load on par with 150% of its GDP, unheard of elsewhere in the union. Meanwhile, other E.U. countries were beginning to show similar strains. Ireland, Italy and Portugal continued to worsen in 2011, with the economic and political indicators taking the hardest hits. Spain, although holding steady throughout most of the year, began to show signs of steady decline by the end of the year.

Published June 18, 2012 | By Felipe Umaña

The year 2011 was a difficult one for Japan. On March 11, the 9.0-magnitude T?hoku earthquake struck the northeastern coast of Japan, triggering a powerful tsunami that left destruction in its wake as it traveled over five miles inland. Numerous landslides occurred in the countryside and several large-scale nuclear meltdowns were reported in a number of nuclear facilities that were found to be unprepared for the strength of the waves. In the resulting calamity, the government of Japan was forced to declare a state of emergency and focus its first response teams on the afflicted northeastern areas.

Because of the extensive damage, the T?hoku earthquake and its associated disasters have quickly become the world’s single most expensive natural disaster incident in history, with costs estimated to be over USD $200 billion. Although Japan has implemented a large-scale and successful rebuilding program, the nation’s full recovery will take some time due to the severity of the destruction.

The impact of the earthquake was felt sharply in Japan’s Failed States Index score for 2011, with the country registering the second-largest year-on-year “worsening” in the history of the Index. The country’s Demographic Pressures indicator score dropped by 4.7 points in this year’s Index, consistent with the intensity of the temblors and tsunami. Though the main destruction occurred in the northeastern region of Japan and thus affected only a section of the population, the complete decimation of hundreds of thousands of homes and the subsequent uprooting of thousands of men, women, and children from their domiciles heavily deteriorated the previously stable demographic conditions. The increase in population displacement and the rush to accommodate those affected also worsened the country’s Refugee and IDP score, showing an increase of 2.9 points. Similarly, the Poverty and Economic Decline score suffered a 0.5 point uptick due to the economic hardships associated with the natural disaster and its effect on the country’s productivity.

Published June 18, 2012 | By Kendall Lawrence

Holding the title as the world’s newest nation, South Sudan gained its independence on July 9, 2011. With only a half year of data belonging to the new country, it was scored but not ranked on this year’s Failed States Index (FSI). Had it been ranked, it would have come in 4th on the index, just better than its parent to the north, Sudan.

It represents only the third occasion that the Fund for Peace has divided a country for the purpose of analysis. Most recently, Serbia has been divided twice since the beginning of the FSI: in 2007, Serbia and Montenegro were analyzed separately after the previous union was dissolved. More recently in 2011, Kosovo was removed from analysis on Serbia (though Kosovo is not analyzed as part of the Failed States Index as it is not a UN-recognized state). As countries split, pressures will shift, historically reducing, though that may not be the case with Sudan and South Sudan. Despite the split, active conflict between the neighboring states has continued.

South Sudan’s contemporary history as a nation is short and is focused primarily on its separation from the north. This year, more than any other, the scores of the two nations are intertwined. Because the split happened halfway through the year, the consequences and reactions are reflected clearly. It is important to look at where there are differences in the scores of the two countries. South Sudan has inherited many social and political problems from the older nation.

Published June 18, 2012 | By Nate Haken

Shocks and stresses rocked the international system over the last five years. A food crisis swept the globe in 2008 sparking violence and political turmoil from the Caribbean to Southeast Asia. This was followed in 2009 by the worst global economic downturn since World War II. Then, with the earthquake in Haiti and the flooding in Pakistan, 2010 was the second most deadly year since the 1980s for natural disasters. If 2010 was among the most deadly, 2011 was the most costly ever recorded, as a result of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. Then, also in 2011, a contagion of democracy and civil war was unleashed across North Africa and the Middle East, inspiring populist movements all over the world.

People experience instability locally. The Failed States Index looks at each country as a unit. But the truth of the matter is that the pressures measured in the 12 social, economic, and political/military indicators are often exacerbated by external or transnational factors, highlighting the reality that this index should not be used in and of itself as an indictment of any particular government. Rather, it is an evaluation of the pressures, both internal and external, that can undermine stability and which must be addressed and managed by the state for a more peaceful and prosperous citizenry.

Perhaps the last five years have been among the most convulsive in recent memory. By grouping the individual states by region, the Failed States Index can provide some insight into the patterns of pressure as they rippled across the world between 2007 and 2011. As measured by the average of the change in the total FSI score, the region that most worsened over the last five years was Western Europe. Western European countries are still on the “good” end of the index, but as a region, they’ve had a significant increase in both economic and political pressures that have yet to be brought back to baseline.

The Fund for Peace Event | May 11, 2012 - Washington, D.C.

As the global human rights discourse evolves to confront today’s challenges, there continue to be a number of limitations in the capacity of organizations to effectively promote and protect human rights throughout the world. These limitations include weak global compliance, uneven regional efforts, and the inability of human rights organizations to apply punitive measures or provide technical advice to actually address human rights violations, rather than just highlight them. Too often organizations may find themselves investing significant time reporting on human rights at the expense of concrete programs that can turn rhetoric into real, positive change.

In addition, the global human rights discourse continues to be challenged by those that argue that universal reporting fails to take into account local cultures or social values, and treats open countries more harshly than closed nations. As a result, while the global human rights movement has achieved much success in promoting a human rights culture through international treaties, laws, and institutions, progress in the implementation of human rights norms across the world has been much more limited.

Published May 1, 2012 | By Raphaël Jaeger

The National League for Democracy’s landslide victory in the latest by-elections is a strong sign that Myanmar’s long-standing junta has finally outlived even its own perceptions of state health and functionality.

Nevertheless, after decades of ruling the country with an iron fist and allowing state institutions to become barely functional rubble, it is hard not to question the future viability of the country and its institutions.

Can Myanmar escape the trappings of a failed state and withstand the social, economic and political pressures it faces to avoid implosion?

A failed state cannot or will not fulfil its obligations under the social contract to provide essential services and security to the population, which can lead to instability and conflict. In the case of Myanmar, there is limited institutional and technical capacity to implement some of the reform measures being adopted.

Other symptoms of a vulnerable state are the loss of physical control of territory, or the loss of a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. Additionally, most weak and fragile states exhibit disharmonies between communities as there are no formal processes for the airing of grievances.

In spite of the ceasefires with most of Myanmar’s ethnic insurgencies, no peace agreements have been signed and many speculate that the recent ‘peace’ is only skin deep. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of Kachin people were reportedly displaced in recent months and some speculate that it is ‘business as usual’ within the country despite the purported governmental reforms.