June 20, 2011
By Annie Janus
The Failed States Index

With much of the world’s attention turned to the Arab Spring, Kyrgyzstan’s 2010 revolution seems to have been forgotten. Nevertheless, Kyrgyzstan’s politically tumultuous year has seen it worsen significantly in the Failed States Index, moving from 45th position to a more serious 31st, and into the Alert category.

Kyrgyzstan’s worsening in this year’s index reflects dramatic reversals in several scores that tend to indicate the state’s susceptibility to internal conflict, and as such, these worsening scores are largely are result of the 2010 revolutions.

June 20, 2011
By J. J. Messner and Melody Knight
The Failed States Index

From the earthquake in Haiti to the volcano in Iceland, 2010 was a big year for natural disasters. Over a quarter million people were killed last year, and millions displaced, as a result of blizzards, droughts, earthquakes, floods, heat waves, landslides, and super typhoons, making it the deadliest year in more than a generation. These disasters claimed the lives of over 290,000 people in 2010, compared with just 11,000 in 2009, according to Munich Re.

Though conflict and poverty tend to be the domain of countries at the worst end of the Failed States Index, natural disasters are non-discriminating, terrorizing the “rich” and “poor” alike. But their actual effect can be particularly damaging for developing states. Poor infrastructure and urban crowding maximize fatalities and disrupt the ability to provide service to survivors. Displacement can also exacerbate existing tensions between groups and strains on supplies.

June 20, 2011
By Nate Haken
The Failed States Index

After having contracted by 0.5% in 2009, global GDP is now very much in recovery mode, with growth of around 5% in 2010. However, this does not mean smooth sailing either for developing or developed countries. In the last year there have been massive protests against governments’ economic stewardship in countries as disparate as Greece and Burkina Faso, illustrating the sobering truth that under certain conditions recovery can be even more destabilizing than recession.

In 2009, economies in the developed world took a nosedive, as debt crises spread like wildfire, hopping through the Eurozone from Iceland, to Ireland, to Greece, and Portugal. Looking ahead, people are now turning their concern toward Spain. All of these countries, whether or not they have been, or will be, bailed out to stabilize their economies, are facing the necessity of austerity measures to prevent such crises from repeating themselves in the future. These austerity measures are being imposed as economies are now deemed strong enough to withstand them. Nevertheless, they have sparked protests, which have sometimes turned violent. Meanwhile, the recovering global economy is contributing to rising food and fuel prices, which have sparked massive protests and military crackdowns in Mozambique, Uganda, and Burkina Faso.

June 20, 2011
By Joelle Burbank
The Failed States Index

This will be the year of the African election, with 27 countries scheduled to choose their presidential, legislative or local leadership at the polls. Elections can be tumultuous times, particularly in conflict-affected countries, as demonstrated in recent years in Cote d’Ivoire, Kenya, Zimbabwe, and elsewhere. Given the challenges inherent in democratization, this year’s elections in Africa are being watched very closely. Here is a glimpse at a few of the African countries that have recently held, or are planning to hold, presidential elections this year and how they fared on the Failed States Index.

June 20, 2011
By Nate Haken
The Failed States Index

On December 17th, 2010, a fruit vendor named Mohamed Bouazizi started a fire in Tunisia which quickly spread with riots and revolutions across the Middle East and North Africa. The “contagion” began in late 2010 with the fall of the Tunisian leader, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. So far, the turbulence has led to the ousting of two long-standing dictators, a war in one country and serious violence in at least three others. The Failed States Index did not predict this and nor does it try. The Failed States Index measures social, economic, and political and military pressures on states. Its data collection period extends from January to December of the previous year, especially notable in this instance since much of the tumult in the region did not manifest itself in violence and severe instability until after the sample period for the 2011 Index had closed.

May 3, 2011
By Kenneth C. Brill and Nate Haken
The Fund for Peace Commentary

Compared to past Nigerian elections, this one was relatively free and fair. Now the hard work begins for President Goodluck Jonathan. In the North, post election violence has killed over 100 people and displaced thousands. But the real worry, in many ways, is the situation in the South. Indeed, whether Nigeria slides inexorably towards state failure or joins the world’s emerging powers will be determined in the Niger Delta, the heart of the nation’s oil economy. Nigeria’s oil exports matter to Nigeria—they account for more than 80% of government revenue. Nigeria, as an oil producer matters to the world—it is the fourth largest exporter worldwide. The absence of sustainable development and security in the Niger Delta could impact the price of gas at the pump and the pace of the global economic recovery.

February 25, 2011
By Kenneth C. Brill
The Fund for Peace Commentary

In June 2010, Mohammed ElBaradei told a meeting of Egyptian reformers and lawyers that Egypt’s negative ranking (in the lowest quartile) in The Fund for Peace’s “Failed States Index” was a “disaster” that demanded the urgent attention of the Egyptian people. With President Mubarak’s departure, those involved in the ongoing transition process in Cairo and, indeed, all the Egyptian people now have a chance to provide that urgent attention.

In the wake of the Tahrir Square demonstrations, many promises have been made, principally to address the democratization and human rights demands of the demonstrators and the public more broadly. This is a good start. However, a careful look at the reasons Egypt ranked so poorly on the “Failed States Index” suggests there are other important areas that must be addressed if Egypt is to move from failing to successful state status.

February 23, 2011
By J. J. Messner
The Failed States Index

On February 9, The Economist published an Index of Unrest among Arab League countries, which was also dubbed “The Shoe-Throwers Index.” The Index combined factors such as youth bulge, longevity of administration, corruption indicators, GDP per head and media censorship. The Fund for Peace decided to compare The Economist’s Shoe-Throwers Index against our own Failed States Index.

February 17, 2011
By Kenneth C. Brill and Nate Haken
The Fund for Peace Commentary

Elections are intended as a renewal of the social contract between the people and their government. But they can also violate that contract. In Africa, the 2011 election calendar is packed, adding to the hopes and fears of people across the content. So while the international spotlight is currently focused on the drama playing out in Egypt, a larger drama may be about to unfold elsewhere on the continent.

This is the year of the African election, with national-level elections scheduled in sixteen countries between January and December. Apart from Egypt, Central African Republic, Nigeria, Liberia, Djibouti, Benin, Niger, Madagascar, Chad, Cape Verde, Gambia, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Uganda all have national level elections this year. Some may be contested with force, not just ballots; others will be peaceful and possibly transformative. While democracy requires much more than a single election, good elections support democracy, development and security. Bad elections, including those whose results are overturned, can destabilize entire regions.

February 11, 2011
By Heidi Ann Davis
The Fund for Peace Commentary

As the Egyptian government of Hosni Mubarak falls, it is remarkable that the outpouring of popular anger on the streets of Cairo that led to his ouster actually began 2,109 km away in Tunisia.

On 28 December 2010, a 26-year-old sat down in front of the municipal building in Sidi Bouzid, Tunisia, doused himself with a liter and half of gasoline and lit himself on fire. Five years from now, it is doubtful that people will remember the name of Mohamed Bouazizi, but they will remember he started a revolution, not only in his own country, but in Egypt as well. The story of a desperate college graduate committing suicide in such a public and particularly gruesome manner for losing his vegetable cart is now one for the history books.

January 19, 2011
By Kenneth C. Brill
The Fund for Peace Commentary

It is fair to say that developments in Tunisia over the last week surprised virtually all observers and we at The Fund for Peace count ourselves among those who would not have predicted the timing of the middle class revolt against the Tunisian regime. Nonetheless, Tunisia’s ranking of 122 (out of 177 states reviewed), which put it in the “warning zone,” in The Fund for Peace’s Failed States Index was based on the very factors that produced the “surprising” events of last weekend.

Published March 1, 2010 | By Krista Hendry

Extractive companies have come under increasing scrutiny due to their operations in areas with weak or oppressive governments, impoverished communities and overall potential for conflict. Often blamed for creating or exacerbating conditions that could cause violence to erupt or human rights abuses to occur, extractive companies have become more aware of their potential impact on and within communities. To protect their employees, physical assets, ability to operate and international reputations, extractive companies assess not only their own security, but also that of neighboring communities and often the country as a whole.