Published June 11, 2012
By Kendall Lawrence, Nate Haken, Patricia Taft, Tierney Anderson, Samantha Levine
Publication CULRR1207
Report available in PDF and Flash formats

The year 2011 was an illuminating period with respect to pressures and resilience in Liberia. Early in the year, Liberia experienced significant social pressures from abroad as neighboring Cote d’Ivoire descended into a major political crisis sending thousands of refugees into Nimba and Grand Gedeh counties. Then, internally, Liberia experienced heightened political pressure as the election season peaked in November. Despite this dangerous confluence of conflict drivers and triggers, there were no major outbreaks of violence during the year. Liberia was able to weather external shocks and internal pressure, reinforcing the notion that the country has come a long way since 2004. This report takes a look at Nimba and Montserrado counties within the broader national context, in terms of pressures and resilience throughout 2011 and beyond. It draws on data generated by local civil society networks, from automated content analysis data (from a sample of 28,634 news articles), and a qualitative review of the data, informed by field visits and desktop research.

It has now been almost ten years since the war ended in 2004. And while Liberia has made strides forward in rebuilding since then, progress has been slow. Perhaps most significantly, the Liberian government, under the leadership of President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, has focused on the long process of repairing the country’s shattered institutions although there remain significant gaps in capacity. Sirleaf’s reelection in November 2011 was generally deemed free and fair, demonstrating the country’s trajectory towards a more functional democracy. However, despite these gains, there is still much work to be done. For example, there is no recent data on paved roads in Liberia but, as of 2007, Liberia had the second lowest number of motor vehicles per capita, tied with Somalia, according to the World Bank Development indicators. Electrical power consumption per capita was the 187th lowest in the world, despite the fact that the country has a population of less than 4 million people. Even in the capital city of Monrovia, where a third of the country’s population lives, the electrical grid has not been repaired and people who can afford them use private generators.

The inability of the government to provide adequate public services throughout the country remains a serious shortcoming and source of tension. In November 2011, President Johnson Sirleaf was granted another six-year term to consolidate human security and development in the country. To a degree, the state of Liberia appears able to weather shocks and pressures, based on the experience of 2011. However, looking ahead, if the government does not better manage expectations and service delivery, the risk of conflict could escalate once again. Particularly if the price of commodities like rice and charcoal continue to rise, and state agencies are perceived to be corrupt, there is the strong possibility that ethnic groups will compete for influence and resources. Although this has focused on Montserrado and Nimba, the issues encountered in these two counties highlight the larger-scale issues endemic to modern Liberia.

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