Broadcast August 16, 2012 | With J. J. Messner

What makes a failed state? Each year the Fund for Peace (FFP) releases its Failed States Index, a country ranking based on a set of indicators assessing stability and vulnerability. FFP hopes that governments and NGOs can use it as a policy tool for improvements. But critics question the value and fairness of the Index, suggesting it paints an incomplete picture.

In this episode of The Stream, we speak to J.J. Messner (@fundforpeace), Co-Director of the Failed States Index; Elliot Ross, writer at Africa is a Country (@africasacountry); and Syed Mohammad Ali, columnist at The Express Tribune.

Broadcast July 13, 2012 | With Suzanne Malveaux and Gen. Michael Hayden

Failed States Index 2012 released: CNN's Suzanne Malveaux talks with Former Director of CIA Michael Hayden.

Held July 13, 2012 | The Fund for Peace Event, Washington, D.C.

Published June 18, 2012 | The Fund for Peace

2012 Failed States Index Released:
Somalia ranked most troubled state for 5th straight year; Finland remains at best position; Libya, Japan and Syria Tumble

WASHINGTON, D.C. - The Fund for Peace today released the eighth edition of its annual Failed States Index (FSI), highlighting global political, economic and social pressures experienced by states.

The 2012 FSI ranks Somalia as number one for the fifth consecutive year, citing widespread lawlessness, ineffective government, terrorism, insurgency, crime, and well-publicized pirate attacks against foreign vessels.

Meanwhile, Finland has remained in the best position, with its Scandinavian neighbors Sweden and Denmark rounding out the best three rankings. All three nations benefit from strong social and economic indicators, paired with excellent provision of public services and respect for human rights and the rule of law.

The FSI ranks 178 countries using 12 social, economic, and political indicators of pressure on the state, along with over 100 sub-indicators. These include such issues as Uneven Development, State Legitimacy, Group Grievance, and Human Rights. Each indicator is rated on a scale of 1-10, based on the analysis of millions of publicly available documents, other quantitative data, and assessments by analysts. A high score indicates high pressure on the state, and therefore a higher risk of instability.

Published June 18, 2012 | By J. Messner, N. Haken, K. Hendry, P. Taft, K. Lawrence, T. Anderson, R. Jaeger, N. Manning, F. Umaña, A. Whitehead

The Failed States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Failed States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

Published June 18, 2012 | By Krista Hendry

One of the greatest challenges in assessing the potential for violent conflict or state collapse is data collection. Despite ten years of constant work to find or develop new ways to collect or create data, there is still much left to be done. Working with partners in the air and on the ground, we are trying to improve our ability to perform assessments with greater efficiency, accuracy, and at levels of granularity that makes the analysis more useful in the design of responses.

The Failed States Index (FSI) is a very high-level view of the world. It is possible to generate the Index each year for the entire world because we allow ourselves to focus on the nation-state. We recognize, however, that areas within each nation-state can be vastly different. We are also combining data for an entire year, and as we all know, the world changes much more dramatically. Sometimes a single event – one perhaps not foreseen even just the day before – can start a series of events that can lead to sudden violence or collapse.

Published June 18, 2012 | By J. J. Messner

Upon first glance, it could be easy to assume that there is very little new to be found in the 2012 Failed States Index. After all, Finland has managed to win back-to-back best-place on the Index and Somalia now has the ignominious distinction of five-straight worst-place finishes. Nine of the worst ten in 2012 are the same as in 2011; meanwhile, the “best ten” at the sustainable end of the index are the same ten countries as in 2011. So, nothing has really changed, right?

Wrong.

Though a quick glance of the 2012 Failed States Index could suggest business as usual, the Index actually saw some of the most dramatic shifts in the eight-year history of the Index, which was first published in 2005. In those eight years, three of the four most significant “worsenings” occurred in 2012. Prior to this year’s Index, the most significant decline had been Lebanon in 2007 – which worsened by 11.9 points – coinciding with the conflict with neighboring Israel. This year, two countries managed to beat that record, and both for very different reasons.

Unsurprisingly, the greatest worsening was that of Libya (a 16.2 point year-on-year rise from 2011), as the country endured a civil war, sustained NATO bombing and the overthrow and assassination of its reviled leader, Colonel Muammar Qaddafi. After finishing 111th on the 2011 Index, Libya now finds itself at 50th.

Published June 18, 2012 | By T. Anderson, R. Jaeger, F. Umaña, N. Manning, A. Whitehead.

1. Somalia As the situation in Somalia continued to deteriorate in 2011, the country remains at the top of the Failed States Index for the fifth year in succession. Ten out of twelve of Somalia’s indicators scores were above 9.0 on a scale of 10. Indeed, the Refugees and IDPs as well as the Security Apparatus indicator scores remain at the highest possible level of 10.0. The absence of a permanent national government for twenty years was aggravated in 2011 by an upsurge of violence, massive human rights abuses and natural disasters. Worsened social conditions have added to political instability which led to mass displacement and impoverishment. Somalia also continues to be a relentless headache for international shipping, with the unrelenting activities of Somali pirates deep into the Indian Ocean. Despite attempts by external actors such as the African Union and neighboring Kenya to intervene in the conflict, terrorist activity by al-Shabaab and general unabating lawlessness has hampered such efforts.
—Raphaël Jaeger

Published June 18, 2012 | By Patricia Taft

The most improved country in the 2012 Failed States Index, the landlocked Central Asian nation of Kyrgyzstan, seems an unlikely one. Since independence from Russia in 1991, the country has been beset with a host of problems that have spanned political, social and economic lines.

Like several of its Central Asian neighbors, the country plays host to various ethnic minorities, with Uzbeks the predominant group in the south of the country. Keeping in line with several other Central Asian Republics, Kyrgyzstan was ruled from independence by a series of authoritarian regimes which brutally quelled opposition and strangled freedom of expression in all its forms. Adding to the tinderbox are myriad demographic pressures resulting from disputes over natural resources, particularly in the Ferghana Valley, as well as the country’s complex relationship with Russia and, at times, the U.S.

When looking at Kyrgyzstan’s improvement in this year’s Index, it is impossible not to point out that last year, the country came second only to earthquake-ravaged Haiti in the category of states that had most worsened. Roiled by political turmoil that led to the ouster of long-time President Kurmanbek Bakiyev in April of 2010, the year quickly turned bloody when clashes between ethnic Kyrgyz and Uzbeks resulted in over 200 deaths in June. Clashes in the south of the country in 2010 also caused a large scale humanitarian emergency and IDP crisis, with hundreds of thousands of people, mostly ethnic Uzbeks, fleeing their homes. The attacks against ethnic Uzbeks in Kyrgyzstan further heightened tensions with neighboring Uzbekistan, already at a boiling point over Tashkent’s decision to shut down natural gas supplies to the country by 50%. Spillover from the June uprising, coupled with a generally worsening economy also caused upheaval in the Ferghana Valley, leading to riots and protests where dozens were injured.

Published June 18, 2012 | By J. J. Messner

It probably comes as little surprise that the most worsened country in the 2012 Failed States Index was Libya. As the convulsions of the Arab Spring reached Libya, the nation spiraled from protest to brutal repression to civil war to regime change.

Though Libya’s decline in the 2012 Index is hardly shocking, what does make it all the more remarkable is the scale of that decline. Indeed, the 16.2 point year-on-year increase since the 2011 Index marks the largest single year decline of a country in the history of the Failed States Index, eclipsing the previous record of 11.9 point jump experienced by Lebanon between 2006 and 2007 as a result of the short conflict with neighboring Israel. Libya also shot up 61 places, from 111th in 2011 to 50th in 2012.

With the support of NATO airstrikes, the rebels of the National Transitional Council (NTC) managed to overthrow the tyrannical Muammar Qaddafi and move the country more towards democratic governance. Were it not for the relative stability imposed upon the country towards the end of the year, there is every possibility that Libya could have worsened even more than it actually did.

Published June 18, 2012 | By Nate Haken

In analyzing the Arab Spring, metaphors matter. If it was a seasonal awakening of democracy we should throw open the windows, that is, welcome it. If it was a contagion of unrest, then we should board up the doors, i.e., control it. If it was a pressure cooker blowing its top, the response should be cautious and deliberate; in other words, we should manage it.

The Failed States Index (FSI) does not conclusively answer the question of which metaphor is most apt, though CAST, the methodology behind the index would tend to preference the last one, with its basic construct of pressures and institutional capacities as a theoretical framework for understanding state fragility and failure.

A look at the content analysis data, aggregated monthly by country, gives us a better picture of what happened over the course of the year. The beginning of the year was the most eventful in terms of protest and collective action. First, in January, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia went into exile. Then, in February, President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt stepped down. This was followed by three months (February, March, and April), of protests spilling across the region, including in Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Yemen. Taking an average of the protest scores for all 19 Middle East and North African, or “MENA” countries, the regional trend is clear.

The content analysis data measuring trends in protests for these countries were highly correlated—some more so than others. A group of countries that was particularly correlated over the course of the year was, Bahrain, Iran, Libya, Oman, Syria, and Yemen.

Published June 18, 2012 | By Natalie Manning

The Arab Spring was one of the biggest stories of 2011, and many of its effects have been registered in the 2012 Failed States Index — Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia and Yemen all saw their scores seriously worsen. For some, the tension has eased, at least for now. For others, conflict and instability continues.

The Arab Spring hit Syria in April 2011 with demonstrations in the southern town of Dara’a against the government’s heavy handed response to students who had spray painted anti-government slogans. The uprising quickly spread and President Bashar al-Assad’s security forces brutally cracked down on the population. By late 2011, the opposition had transformed from a peaceful movement into an armed insurrection. An estimated 13,000 people have died since the conflict began, and thousands more have been displaced as the country spirals further towards civil war.

Until 2012, Syria’s ranking on the Failed States Index had been steadily improving, moving up 19 places since 2005. However, in 2012, Syria was the third most worsened country, slipping 8.6 points, a change that ranks it as the fourth-most significant decline in the history of the Index. Syria’s performance so far this year also puts it at risk of continued decline in the 2013 Index, as a significant uptick in violence has already been witnessed in the first half of 2012.

Published June 18, 2012 | By Patricia Taft

Continuing its downward spiral in the 2012 Failed States Index, Greece, the cradle of democracy, continued to fall into chaos. For a second year running, the country worsened across almost every indicator score with the political and economic indicators experiencing the deepest decline. In 2011, the Greek economy continued to backslide as the unemployment rate hovered around 20% for the year, with an estimated 50% of young Greeks unemployed. As in 2010, political crises ensued, and the perceived legitimacy of the Greek government plunged as more and more Greek citizens questioned the ability of elected officials to drag their country out of the morass. Indeed, throughout 2011, the general worsening of the indicators which measure economic, political and social pressures evidenced that the financial crisis that had gripped the country for two years was quickly spreading across multiple sectors. Public rage was palpable with tens of thousands of Greeks taking to the streets in June to protest proposed austerity measures that included significant tax hikes.

Adding to the mayhem and impacting the economic and political trends, the catastrophe that was occurring in Greece brought into question the viability of such lofty ideals as pan-European prosperity and social and economic equality as the country dragged down its European Union brethren. Greece, which joined the Eurozone in 2001 after failing to meet the criteria in 1999, has long been the red-headed stepchild of the monetary union. By mid-2011, after only ten years of membership, it had racked up a debt load on par with 150% of its GDP, unheard of elsewhere in the union. Meanwhile, other E.U. countries were beginning to show similar strains. Ireland, Italy and Portugal continued to worsen in 2011, with the economic and political indicators taking the hardest hits. Spain, although holding steady throughout most of the year, began to show signs of steady decline by the end of the year.

Published June 18, 2012 | By Felipe Umaña

The year 2011 was a difficult one for Japan. On March 11, the 9.0-magnitude T?hoku earthquake struck the northeastern coast of Japan, triggering a powerful tsunami that left destruction in its wake as it traveled over five miles inland. Numerous landslides occurred in the countryside and several large-scale nuclear meltdowns were reported in a number of nuclear facilities that were found to be unprepared for the strength of the waves. In the resulting calamity, the government of Japan was forced to declare a state of emergency and focus its first response teams on the afflicted northeastern areas.

Because of the extensive damage, the T?hoku earthquake and its associated disasters have quickly become the world’s single most expensive natural disaster incident in history, with costs estimated to be over USD $200 billion. Although Japan has implemented a large-scale and successful rebuilding program, the nation’s full recovery will take some time due to the severity of the destruction.

The impact of the earthquake was felt sharply in Japan’s Failed States Index score for 2011, with the country registering the second-largest year-on-year “worsening” in the history of the Index. The country’s Demographic Pressures indicator score dropped by 4.7 points in this year’s Index, consistent with the intensity of the temblors and tsunami. Though the main destruction occurred in the northeastern region of Japan and thus affected only a section of the population, the complete decimation of hundreds of thousands of homes and the subsequent uprooting of thousands of men, women, and children from their domiciles heavily deteriorated the previously stable demographic conditions. The increase in population displacement and the rush to accommodate those affected also worsened the country’s Refugee and IDP score, showing an increase of 2.9 points. Similarly, the Poverty and Economic Decline score suffered a 0.5 point uptick due to the economic hardships associated with the natural disaster and its effect on the country’s productivity.