June 20, 2011
By J. J. Messner
The Failed States Index

It is less than three years since Russia attacked Georgia, ostensibly over the disputed regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In the 2009 Failed States Index, Georgia ranked 33rd and into the Alert category. Though the country has definitely performed better in the past (ranking as well as 60th in 2006), the fact that it has rebounded to 47th in this year’s Index is somewhat remarkable. Even more remarkable, Georgia is this year’s most improved nation in the 2011 Failed States Index, having improved by 10 positions and by a score of 4.0.

As Georgia and Russia moved away from conflict, and as relations between the government in Tbilisi and its separatist regions stabilized, this reversal of hostilities — both internal and external — are reflected in the country’s scores. The Demographic Pressures and Group Grievance scores have improved by 0.4 points each; the other two social indicators (Refugees/IDPs and Brain Drain) have also marginally improved. Similarly, the External Intervention indicator, which reached a high point of 9.5 in 2009 as a result of the Russian incursion, has now settled back to 8.5—although this is not a good score by any means, it marks a significant improvement of 1.0 points in just 2 years.

June 20, 2011
By Annie Janus
The Failed States Index

With much of the world’s attention turned to the Arab Spring, Kyrgyzstan’s 2010 revolution seems to have been forgotten. Nevertheless, Kyrgyzstan’s politically tumultuous year has seen it worsen significantly in the Failed States Index, moving from 45th position to a more serious 31st, and into the Alert category.

Kyrgyzstan’s worsening in this year’s index reflects dramatic reversals in several scores that tend to indicate the state’s susceptibility to internal conflict, and as such, these worsening scores are largely are result of the 2010 revolutions.

June 20, 2011
By J. J. Messner and Melody Knight
The Failed States Index

From the earthquake in Haiti to the volcano in Iceland, 2010 was a big year for natural disasters. Over a quarter million people were killed last year, and millions displaced, as a result of blizzards, droughts, earthquakes, floods, heat waves, landslides, and super typhoons, making it the deadliest year in more than a generation. These disasters claimed the lives of over 290,000 people in 2010, compared with just 11,000 in 2009, according to Munich Re.

Though conflict and poverty tend to be the domain of countries at the worst end of the Failed States Index, natural disasters are non-discriminating, terrorizing the “rich” and “poor” alike. But their actual effect can be particularly damaging for developing states. Poor infrastructure and urban crowding maximize fatalities and disrupt the ability to provide service to survivors. Displacement can also exacerbate existing tensions between groups and strains on supplies.

June 20, 2011
By Nate Haken
The Failed States Index

After having contracted by 0.5% in 2009, global GDP is now very much in recovery mode, with growth of around 5% in 2010. However, this does not mean smooth sailing either for developing or developed countries. In the last year there have been massive protests against governments’ economic stewardship in countries as disparate as Greece and Burkina Faso, illustrating the sobering truth that under certain conditions recovery can be even more destabilizing than recession.

In 2009, economies in the developed world took a nosedive, as debt crises spread like wildfire, hopping through the Eurozone from Iceland, to Ireland, to Greece, and Portugal. Looking ahead, people are now turning their concern toward Spain. All of these countries, whether or not they have been, or will be, bailed out to stabilize their economies, are facing the necessity of austerity measures to prevent such crises from repeating themselves in the future. These austerity measures are being imposed as economies are now deemed strong enough to withstand them. Nevertheless, they have sparked protests, which have sometimes turned violent. Meanwhile, the recovering global economy is contributing to rising food and fuel prices, which have sparked massive protests and military crackdowns in Mozambique, Uganda, and Burkina Faso.

June 20, 2011
By Joelle Burbank
The Failed States Index

This will be the year of the African election, with 27 countries scheduled to choose their presidential, legislative or local leadership at the polls. Elections can be tumultuous times, particularly in conflict-affected countries, as demonstrated in recent years in Cote d’Ivoire, Kenya, Zimbabwe, and elsewhere. Given the challenges inherent in democratization, this year’s elections in Africa are being watched very closely. Here is a glimpse at a few of the African countries that have recently held, or are planning to hold, presidential elections this year and how they fared on the Failed States Index.

June 20, 2011
By Nate Haken
The Failed States Index

On December 17th, 2010, a fruit vendor named Mohamed Bouazizi started a fire in Tunisia which quickly spread with riots and revolutions across the Middle East and North Africa. The “contagion” began in late 2010 with the fall of the Tunisian leader, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. So far, the turbulence has led to the ousting of two long-standing dictators, a war in one country and serious violence in at least three others. The Failed States Index did not predict this and nor does it try. The Failed States Index measures social, economic, and political and military pressures on states. Its data collection period extends from January to December of the previous year, especially notable in this instance since much of the tumult in the region did not manifest itself in violence and severe instability until after the sample period for the 2011 Index had closed.

Publication FS-11-11
Report available in Excel format

The Fund for Peace is pleased to provide our Failed States Index scores in spreadsheet format to allow ease of use by scholars and analysts.

The Fund for Peace and BENS Event
June 29, 2011
8.15 am - 11.00am
Washington, D.C.

Join The Fund for Peace (FfP) and BENS for the launch of this year’s Failed States Index (FSI). The FSI is a leading index that annually highlights current trends in social, economic and political pressures that affect all states, but can strain some beyond their capacity to cope. Apart from the impact on their people, fragile and failed states present the international community with a variety of challenges. In today's world, with its globalized economy, information systems and security challenges, pressures on one fragile state can have serious repercussions not only for that state and its people, but also for its neighbors and other states halfway across the globe.

February 23, 2011
By J. J. Messner
The Failed States Index

On February 9, The Economist published an Index of Unrest among Arab League countries, which was also dubbed “The Shoe-Throwers Index.” The Index combined factors such as youth bulge, longevity of administration, corruption indicators, GDP per head and media censorship. The Fund for Peace decided to compare The Economist’s Shoe-Throwers Index against our own Failed States Index.

January 19, 2011
By Kenneth C. Brill
The Fund for Peace Commentary

It is fair to say that developments in Tunisia over the last week surprised virtually all observers and we at The Fund for Peace count ourselves among those who would not have predicted the timing of the middle class revolt against the Tunisian regime. Nonetheless, Tunisia’s ranking of 122 (out of 177 states reviewed), which put it in the “warning zone,” in The Fund for Peace’s Failed States Index was based on the very factors that produced the “surprising” events of last weekend.

Publication CR-10-99-FS
Report available in PDF and Flash formats

The Failed States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Failed States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

We are pleased to present the sixth annual Failed States Index. The FSI focuses on the indicators of risk and is based on thousands of articles and reports that are processed by our CAST Software from electronically available sources.

We encourage others to utilize the Failed States Index to develop ideas for promoting greater stability worldwide. We hope the Index will spur conversations, encourage debate, and most of all help guide strategies for sustainable security.

July 1, 2010
The Failed States Index

The Fund for Peace is pleased to provide our Failed States Index scores in spreadsheet format to allow ease of use by scholars and analysts.