Published December 10, 2012 | By Nate Haken, Filipa Carreira, Elizaveta Egorova, Rachel Hersh

Not every explosion in northern Nigeria stems from the radicalism of Boko Haram. Nor is every outbreak of violence in the Niger Delta the result of militants fighting over oil revenues. Rather, violence in its different forms is an expression of a broader and deeper fabric of social, economic, political, and security challenges. Given the wrong set of underlying conditions, collective violence can spark seemingly out of nowhere, whether or not there is a formal paramilitary group active in the region. Even when such organizations do not exist, in an area with past and current episodes of insecurity, latent structures may still be there, to be crystallized at a moments notice--in the event of a political contest, land dispute, turf warfare, or chieftaincy tussle.  Violence can sometimes be self-organizing.  Just add water.

The government’s amnesty program in the Niger Delta has been partially successful. Attacks by militants on oil facilities and state assets have been much reduced. However, since 2009, organized insurgency in the Niger Delta has morphed into a situation of general lawlessness — abductions, murders, gang violence, intra-communal violence, land disputes, mob justice, and political thuggery. Meanwhile, in the North, ethnic and sectarian violence has polarized communities causing some to migrate into religious enclaves out of fear. During the period of May-October 2012, there were bombings in Kaduna and large scale communal violence in Plateau. In addition to the shifting patterns of violence in the North and the South, there were also devastating floods — Nigeria’s worst in 40 years — which further exacerbated pressure on the state’s ability to manage conflict risk.

Published November 8, 2012 | By Kendall Lawrence, Nate Haken, Patricia Taft, Nóra Loncsár

On April 26, 2012, the International Criminal Court convicted Liberia’s former president Charles Taylor for his role in the commission of crimes against humanity during the war in Sierra Leone in the 1990s. For Sierra Leone, this brought a dark chapter to a close — and for Liberia as well.

From 1989 to 1990, Charles Taylor and Prince Johnson fought to overthrow then-president Samuel Doe. After Johnson captured and killed Doe (sipping a Budweiser as he chopped off his ears), he and Taylor fought a bloody war for control of Monrovia. Taylor eventually took power, but the country was plunged into a civil war that lasted until 2003 when peacekeepers were deployed and Taylor was exiled to Nigeria.

Researchers from The Fund for Peace (FFP) and Liberia Democracy Watch (LDW) were present in Gbarnga, Taylor’s erstwhile base of operations, for a conflict assessment workshop on the day of the conviction. Riot police and UNMIL forces were deployed en masse, standing by in the event of protest. However, time had apparently passed Taylor by. People went about their businesses. “It’s over,” one person said.

Published August 23, 2012 | By Felipe Umaña

The Straits of Malacca consist of a narrow but lengthy waterway that extends more than 500 miles from the eastern limits of the Andaman Sea to the South China Sea in Southeast Asia. Straddling the sea route between the Indonesian island of Sumatra, the Thai-Malay Peninsula, and the small city-state of Singapore, the Straits of Malacca are known globally for their economic, political, environmental, and strategic importance. The Straits themselves link the Indian Ocean to some of Asia’s most powerful economies, as well as many other trade-influential countries, like the United States, Germany, and Russia.

More than 60,000 vessels traverse the critical chokepoint per year, carrying more than a third of global trade. Due to the amount of traffic, the region is also home to some of the busiest ports in the world, particularly in Singapore. The Straits attract foreign investment with the amount of commerce and trade it supports. The Straits are also the focal point of legal and political issues, such as the sovereignty of territorial waters and the responsibility to secure the waterway. Likewise, the waterway is a source of environmental concern for the littoral countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. The maintenance of the environment is important to all three states in order to not deter tourism or development projects in the area, both of which can in turn influence the economic and political sectors directly. Finally, the Straits are crucial for worldwide communication and resource exchange, making them internationally significant.

Published June 27, 2012 | By Nate Haken, Natalie Manning, Megan Turner, Amelia Whitehead

As Goodluck Jonathan begins his new term as President of Nigeria, he faces many challenges. Even as a fragile peace takes hold in the Niger Delta, gang violence and criminality continue unabated. In the North, Boko Haram, an Islamist terrorist group, continues to wreak havoc. Though the government has taken some steps towards strengthening the democratic process, instances of corruption and vote rigging have been reported at the state and local levels over the past seven months. The Nigerian government, civil society, and other stakeholders must take steps to address these governance and security issues, or risk further instability in the future.

This report compiles the incidents and issues documented by civil society representatives in the UNLocK Nigeria early warning network from October 2011 to April 2012, with a particular focus on the state and local government area levels of Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Delta and Kaduna.

Incidents and issues summarized here include election irregularities surrounding gubernatorial elections, such as political corruption and intimidation, as well as social and economic pressures relating to land competition, group grievance and violent crime. These incidents and issues are categorized according to the Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST) framework, which allows for a holistic evaluation of the pressures on society and the state that could increase the risk of instability.

Published June 18, 2012 | By J. Messner, N. Haken, K. Hendry, P. Taft, K. Lawrence, T. Anderson, R. Jaeger, N. Manning, F. Umaña, A. Whitehead

The Failed States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Failed States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

Published June 11, 2012 | By K. Lawrence, N. Haken, P. Taft, T. Anderson, S. Levine

The year 2011 was an illuminating period with respect to pressures and resilience in Liberia. Early in the year, Liberia experienced significant social pressures from abroad as neighboring Cote d’Ivoire descended into a major political crisis sending thousands of refugees into Nimba and Grand Gedeh counties. Then, internally, Liberia experienced heightened political pressure as the election season peaked in November. Despite this dangerous confluence of conflict drivers and triggers, there were no major outbreaks of violence during the year. Liberia was able to weather external shocks and internal pressure, reinforcing the notion that the country has come a long way since 2004. This report takes a look at Nimba and Montserrado counties within the broader national context, in terms of pressures and resilience throughout 2011 and beyond. It draws on data generated by local civil society networks, from automated content analysis data (from a sample of 28,634 news articles), and a qualitative review of the data, informed by field visits and desktop research.

Published April 11, 2012 | By Felipe Umaña

The Tri-Border Area is formed by the junction of three different cities: Puerto Iguazú, Argentina; Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil; and Ciudad del Este, Paraguay. Located in the eastern-central part of the Southern Cone in South America, the triple frontier region is known for its impressive Iguaçu Falls – a group of cataracts that draw over 700,000 tourists each year – and other natural sites throughout the the Iguazú National Park. The region is also notable for being the home of the world’s largest hydroelectric plant, the Itaipu Dam.

Demographically, the area is very ethnically diverse. In addition to the native Paraguayans, Brazilians, and Argentine populations, there are also substantial pockets of people of Chinese, Colombian, Iranian, Italian, Korean, Lebanese, Palestinian, Taiwanese, and Ukrainian descent. The triple frontier boasts a large Arab minority presence of around 10,000 and 75,000 people, mostly from Lebanon and Palestine.

Of the three cities that form the Tri-Border Area, Ciudad del Este is the largest and busiest, serving as the region’s economic center. Its streets are regularly clogged with street merchants, shoppers, cambistas (informal currency exchangers), and others that help fuel its burgeoning economy. In fact, Ciudad del Este has ranked third worldwide in cash transactions, averaging well over US$12 billion annually in the early 2000s.2 Foz do Iguaçu, which boasts some of the region’s most frequented tourist destinations (including Latin America’s largest mosque), is the second largest city. Puerto Iguazú rounds out the trio in terms of population size.

Published February 29, 2012 | By J. J. Messner

Libya is currently undergoing a period of reconstruction after having endured a months-long civil war that brought to an end over four decades of dictatorial rule by Colonel Muammar al-Qadhafi. As the country stabilizes and rebuilds, there will be significant interest in new and renewed investment in the country. It will be necessary for businesses to understand the challenges facing Libya in the short- and medium-term and to invest and operate responsibly in the country.

Only the rapid and urgent creation of economic opportunity carries the power to prevent the worsening of a multitude of potential conflict drivers. Increased investment will be a key catalyst for these economic opportunities and such investment will require a more secure and stable operating environment. This security and stability will be reliant on professional and adequately trained state security forces. The international community is uniquely positioned to take advantage of this window of opportunity to engage the Libyan government, and in turn provide technical assistance to pursue the objective of security sector reform and capacity building in the “New Libya.”

Published February 15, 2012 | By Ed Nagle

Not long after the dawn of the nuclear age, few experts were optimistic that the spread of nuclear weapons could be contained. In 1963 it was anticipated that fifteen to twenty nations would likely come to possess nuclear weapons, let alone nuclear power, by the 1970s.1 It is easy to lose sight of this in contemporary discussions on nuclear proliferation. Yet at present we are faced with renewed pressure from state and non-state actors who desire to acquire nuclear arms. The apparent success of North Korea and potential success of Iran have created new regional pressures that have the potential to greatly increase the number of nuclear weapons states to a point not unlike President John F. Kennedy’s grim prediction in 1963. The years since the end of the Cold War have seen not only a transformation of the security environment, but also an evolution in the means and motives for procuring nuclear arms.

Published January 11, 2012 | By Joelle Burbank, Nate Haken, Erin Crandell, Julie Andrus

Incumbent president and recent Nobel laureate Ellen Johnson Sirleaf was declared the winner of the runoff election held on November 8th, 2011. After asserting that the October 8th election was not as fair as the United Nations and other international bodies declared it to be, opposition leader Winston Tubman and his supporters boycotted the run-off election, resulting in a turnout that was only about 37% of the voting age population, and almost half of the turnout in the October 8th election.

This is the second election held in Liberia after years of civil war, and this is the first to be overseen by an independent Liberian election board. While international observers declared the election to be free and fair, there were multiple reports gathered during the June to November period of intimidation of political opponents, election irregularities and government corruption. In this atmosphere, the boycott further undermines the perceived legitimacy of the government in the eyes of the local population.

Published December 6, 2011 | By Sonia Hausen

On the 7th of September 2011, members of civil society, government, and the private sector convened in New York City to discuss the World Gold Council’s (WGC) draft Conflict-Free Gold Standards. The day-long Roundtable was facilitated by the independent, nonpartisan, and nonprofit organization, The Fund for Peace. WGC, the initiator of the meeting, sought feedback and guidance to ensure the Standard does what it intends and addresses what matters to all relevant stakeholders in order to build consensus and support within a broader global context. Experts assembled to share perspectives, make further recommendations, discuss efficacy and practical implementation, and jointly recognize the challenges facing companies operating in complex and sensitive environments. The following is an overview of the various discussion topics, opinions, and advice brought to light by participants during the session. The session was held under the Chatham House Rule.

Published November 10, 2011 | By Krista Hendry and Diana Klein

While the Voluntary Principles on Security & Human Rights have grown over the past ten years to include 7 governments, 18 companies, and 9 NGOs, there has been too little focus on national?level implementation within the countries that have challenges related to security and human rights. At the same time, there has been little guidance, with the exception of a case study on Colombia, given to those in the countries on how they can encourage VPs adoption by host governments and extractive companies operating in the country.

The purpose of this document, which will be public, is to give guidance to those interested in initiating or supporting a national?level process to implement the VPs. The document lays out basic elements for consideration based on existing national?level processes. The Fund for Peace (FfP) and International Alert (IA) have joined in this effort as two of the participant NGOs in the international?level dialogue of the VPs, with funding from the Government of Norway and support from the Government of the Republic of Colombia, two of the governments formally involved in the process. This guidance note has been informed by existing in?country processes ? largely Colombia and Indonesia, as well as experience and insight gathered from participants at a workshop in Bogota in June 2010.

This guidance note should also not be viewed as overly prescriptive. As will be evident throughout this document, a national?level process will invariably be different in each area. Every country will have its own unique set of actors, challenges and opportunities.

Published October 28, 2011 | By Nate Haken, Tierney Anderson, Julie Andrus, Erin Crandell

Nigeria’s election in April 2011 represented a huge step forward with respect to democratization. However, there was significant resistance on the part of vested interests, which led to an escalation of many conflict risk factors at the local and national levels in the subsequent five months. Nigerian stakeholders in government, civil society, and private sectors must not rest on their laurels after this relatively successful election. Doing so would risk losing all that has been gained.

This report compiles the incidents and issues documented by civil society representatives in the UNLocK Nigeria early warning network from April -September 2011, with a particular focus on the state and local government area levels of Akwa Ibom, Rivers, Bayelsa, and Kaduna. There is a two month period of overlap between this report and the last, which covered December 2010-May 2011. The reason for this overlap is that UNLocK participants met in September for a workshop, adding considerably to the data compiled on events in April and May. Rather than archive that newly collected data, we wanted to include it in this report for a fuller picture of the landscape as perceived by the early warning network.

Published October 14, 2011 | By Kendall Lawrence

The Haqqani Network is an insurgent group that operates from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) region of Pakistan. The group has been active mainly in the southeast of Afghanistan—in Paktia, Paktika, Khost, Ghazni Wardak and, occasionally, Kabul provinces. For the past two years, the group has focused on gaining support and control of Kurram Agency, a province of Pakistan not far from Kabul, which is mostly beyond the scope of U.S. drone activity. It is led by Siraj Haqqani, the son of the network’s founder, the famous anti-Soviet fighter and former CIA asset, Jalaluddin Haqqani. The Network falls under the larger umbrella of the Taliban, although they maintain their own command and control structures.

Published October 14, 2011 | By Ryan Costello and Ed Nagle

Revelations from the 2004 exposure of the A. Q. Khan network have highlighted the importance of this region in global nonproliferation efforts. While terrorism is by no means constrained to the Afghanistan/Pakistan border, the confluence of intent, knowledge and materials is found in this region. It remains uncertain if all nodes of the Khan network have been identified. Other leading Pakistani scient ist s have demonstrated a willingness to share nuclear knowledge if not material capabilities. The diversity of suppliers in quantity, location and specialty has made confirmation tentative at best. Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program is extensive and ongoing. The infrastructure that enabled Khan’s prolonged success remains in place. In addition, the intentions of individual members of Pakistan’s intelligence and military leadership have been called into question as a result of revelations regarding Bin Laden’s death.