Published October 4, 2011
By Nate Haken, Tierney Anderson, Julie Andrus, Erin Crandell
Publication CUUGR1125
Report available in PDF and Flash formats

In February, Ugandans reelected President Museveni to a fifth term in office by a landslide. A few weeks after the election, massive protests over the government’s management of the economy broke out in cities across the country and sometimes turned violent. Since then, the protests have subsided, but food prices remain high and segments of the population still feel politically disenfranchised. This context poses a challenge to continued progress for democracy and human rights in Uganda.

This report is a summary of incidents and issues from May to August 2011, with a special focus on pastoral conflict in Karamoja and land conflict in Acholi, as reported by a network of local civil society representatives who have been using FFP’s Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST) since 2008. The project engages local civil society for better conflict assessment, early warning, and prevention.

Published August 19, 2011 | By Annie Janus

The world is facing its second food crisis in three years. In 2008, soaring food prices led to widespread famine, political instability, and violent riots from Bangladesh to Egypt. Recently, food prices have resurged, placing pressure on many countries as they reached record highs earlier this year.

The sharp increase in food prices presents many far-reaching threats. In addition to humanitarian concerns, hunger is an instant source of instability. Due to the intense pressure spiked food prices have placed on many countries, food riots have recently erupted Algeria, Jordan, and Tunisia. Unless the situation improves, the international community is at risk of the widespread protests, land grabbing, and political upheavals that plagued the 2007-08 food crisis.

Published September 1, 2011 | By Annie Janus and Kendall Lawrence

Al Shabaab, a hard-line militia group, controls most of southern Somalia and, until recently, a large swath of Mogadishu. Though the exact origins of al-Shabaab are unknown, most scholars believe that the group started as a military faction of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), which took over Mogadishu and large parts of the south after intense factionalized fighting in 2006. Al-Shabaab has waged an insurgency against Somalia's transitional federal government (TFG) and its Ethiopian supporters over the past five years. The full name of the group is Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (HSM) meaning ‘Movement of Striving Youth.’ The fighters are a mix of local and foreign youth, attracted to the group by its claims to be the defenders of Somali dignity from outside invaders while it also calls for a broader global jihad.

Published August 16, 2011 | By Joelle Burbank, Nate Haken, Colston Reid

For the second time since the end of their devastating civil war, Liberian voters will go to the polls to democratically elect their president. The general election, scheduled for October 2011, will decide the presidency, all seats in the House of Representatives, and half the seats in the Senate. Although Liberia has come a long way since the end of the civil war, many challenges remain, including corruption, weak public services, and crime. Liberia has also been affected by external factors such as spillover from the recent violence in neighboring Cote d’Ivoire. Many people, both in Liberia and abroad, see the upcoming elections as an important test of Liberia’s progress towards democracy and stability.

This report is a summary of incidents and issues from February to May 2011, as reported by a network of local civil society representatives in Liberia who have been trained in conflict assessment. The project engages local civil society for better conflict assessment, early warning, and prevention.

Publication CR-11-19-UL
Published June 30, 2011
By Nate Haken, Kendall Lawrence

Despite a relatively smooth election in February—not violent by historical standards—stability in Uganda appeared a little shaky during the period of January-April 2011. Although there were reports of some irregularities and the use of state funds to shore up the incumbency, overall the election itself was considered reasonably free, if less than fair. Opposition candidates refused to concede defeat. Then, after a failed attempt to inspire popular protest against the election results, the opposition successfully mobilized a massive campaign of protests in multiple cities against rising food and fuel prices. This was seen as a demonstration of popular discontent with the effectiveness of government. These protests went on for days and frequently became violent. Several people were shot dead and hundreds were reportedly arrested during these protests.

Published June 20, 2011
Publication CR-11-14-FS
Report available in PDF and Flash formats

The Failed States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Failed States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

Published May 20, 2011 | By Kendall Lawrence

Conventional weapons continue to proliferate around the globe at an astonishing rate, representing a threat to civilian populations. The term, ‘conventional weapons’ generally refers to weapons that are in wide use and are not weapons of mass destruction, such as nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons. They include small arms and light weapons, sea and land mines, as well as (non-nuclear) bombs, shells, rockets, missiles and cluster munitions. Their use during war is governed by the Geneva Conventions and other agreements and conventions. Conventional weapons are widely used in conflict around the globe. They are used by both state and non-state actors, though trade is tracked on the state level.
Conventional weapons are a topic of discussion on many levels on the international field. Examining the trends in international arms transfers helps to create a broader understanding of the scope and effect of conventional weapons.

This fact sheet provides a basic overview of the trade in conventional weapons.

Published April 26, 2011 | By Jonas Vaicikonis

North Korea threatens world security by hastening the spread of nuclear weapons and related technologies to state and non-state actors interested in acquiring nuclear weapons. The North uses two pathways to acquire banned nuclear equipment for itself and for others: through state-to-state contact and through its network of individuals engaged in illicit trade. Both pathways pose a danger to the international community, but it is increasingly North Korea’s collaborations with other states interested in nuclear weapons technology that threaten the global nonproliferation regime. North Korea’s unscrupulous history of selling narcotics, counterfeiting currency, and selling arms does not encourage optimism in its willingness to refrain from spreading nuclear weapons technology. Indeed, the examples in this paper demonstrate that North Korea’s relationships with Pakistan, Syria, and Iran have advanced the nuclear programs of all four states, despite United Nation’s sanctions.

Published April 19, 2011 | By Ryan Costello

Concerns regarding the safety of nuclear energy, particularly after the meltdowns at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl, have hindered its continued development over the past few decades. However, increasing energy demand and fears of climate change have led to a “nuclear renaissance” in which states have increasingly pursued nuclear power as a carbon-free energy source.1 Given the evolving nuclear crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, the future of nuclear energy is once again in doubt because of concerns about safety and health risks. When discussing the potential hazards of nuclear power, it is useful to bear in mind the cost of burning fossil fuels, such as coal. The burning of coal is a primary contributor to global warming, and it emits numerous hazardous air pollutants that likely result in thousands of deaths annually. Furthermore, around the globe thousands of coal miners die each year in mine accidents.2 Thus, the death toll from fossil fuels is higher than that of nuclear power.

Published March 29, 2011 | By Ryan Costello

The ongoing crisis at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station has renewed international concern regarding the safety of nuclear energy. In Germany, domestic pressure has forced Chancellor Angela Merkel to temporarily close seven of the nation’s seventeen nuclear power plants. In addition, China has announced that it will suspend new plant approvals until safety regulations are reviewed. On the other hand, France, which relies on nuclear energy to provide nearly eighty percent of the country’s electricity, has not indicated that it will take any steps to limit production at its nuclear plants.1 To date, there are thirty countries operating nuclear power reactors worldwide and approximately twenty others have expressed an interest in building nuclear reactors for the generation of electricity. Therefore, as nations around the world reexamine their nuclear energy policies, it is helpful to examine the pros and cons of nuclear power.

Publication CR-11-08-UL
Report available in PDF and Flash formats

The period of August—December 2010 was a very political season in Uganda, with the NRM (National Resistance Movement) primaries in August, the nomination of presidential candidates in October, followed by the beginning of the campaigns for the February 2011 elections. Thus, as could be expected, there was a sharp increase in reports coming from the UNLocK participants relating to political factors. Whereas in the previous five months there were relatively few reports relating to state legitimacy, this issue, particularly incidents of corruption and election irregularities, were reported frequently by participants from August to December. There were fears expressed about the potential for election violence, especially considering the 2009 and 2010 riots in Kampala, which some felt could be reignited in the heat of the contest. However, although there were a few reports of violence and intimidation, this was less of an issue in the run-up to the election than many had anticipated, especially as compared with previous Ugandan elections.

Publication CR-11-13-UL
Report available in PDF and Flash formats

Elections are important for the renewal of the social contract between the people and their government.  But that process of renewal can be rocky, as was vividly illustrated in Côte d’Ivoire in late 2010.  In light of how difficult elections can be, the Fund for Peace has been working with civil society in Nigeria, Liberia, and Uganda for improved local capacity in communication and conducting situational assessments in the run-up to 2011 elections.  The Ugandan election took place on February 18, the Liberian election is scheduled for October, and the Nigerian election is scheduled for April, 2011. This report, the latest in a series of reports on Liberia, analyses events in the country during 2010 and examines some of the challenges that face Liberia in the lead-up to the 2011 presidential elections.

Published February 25, 2011 | By Jonas Vaicikonis

Status of International Nonproliferation and Counterterrorism Efforts in the Caucasus & Central Asia

Published February 25, 2011 | By Jonas Vaicikonis

Status of International Nonproliferation and Counterterrorism Efforts in East and Southeast Europe

Published February 1, 2011 | By Ryan Costello

Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and materials represent a significant proliferation risk that could become a target for terrorist groups operating within the country and in neighboring countries, such as Afghanistan. Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and materials exist in the context of state instability and fragility, the legacy of the A.Q. Khan network, and alleged ties between the government and Islamist militants. The possibility that terrorists could obtain nuclear weapons or materials, either through an assault on nuclear facilities or with internal assistance, should not be underestimated.