Published June 18, 2012 | By J. J. Messner

Upon first glance, it could be easy to assume that there is very little new to be found in the 2012 Failed States Index. After all, Finland has managed to win back-to-back best-place on the Index and Somalia now has the ignominious distinction of five-straight worst-place finishes. Nine of the worst ten in 2012 are the same as in 2011; meanwhile, the “best ten” at the sustainable end of the index are the same ten countries as in 2011. So, nothing has really changed, right?

Wrong.

Though a quick glance of the 2012 Failed States Index could suggest business as usual, the Index actually saw some of the most dramatic shifts in the eight-year history of the Index, which was first published in 2005. In those eight years, three of the four most significant “worsenings” occurred in 2012. Prior to this year’s Index, the most significant decline had been Lebanon in 2007 – which worsened by 11.9 points – coinciding with the conflict with neighboring Israel. This year, two countries managed to beat that record, and both for very different reasons.

Unsurprisingly, the greatest worsening was that of Libya (a 16.2 point year-on-year rise from 2011), as the country endured a civil war, sustained NATO bombing and the overthrow and assassination of its reviled leader, Colonel Muammar Qaddafi. After finishing 111th on the 2011 Index, Libya now finds itself at 50th.

Published June 18, 2012 | By Nate Haken

In analyzing the Arab Spring, metaphors matter. If it was a seasonal awakening of democracy we should throw open the windows, that is, welcome it. If it was a contagion of unrest, then we should board up the doors, i.e., control it. If it was a pressure cooker blowing its top, the response should be cautious and deliberate; in other words, we should manage it.

The Failed States Index (FSI) does not conclusively answer the question of which metaphor is most apt, though CAST, the methodology behind the index would tend to preference the last one, with its basic construct of pressures and institutional capacities as a theoretical framework for understanding state fragility and failure.

A look at the content analysis data, aggregated monthly by country, gives us a better picture of what happened over the course of the year. The beginning of the year was the most eventful in terms of protest and collective action. First, in January, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia went into exile. Then, in February, President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt stepped down. This was followed by three months (February, March, and April), of protests spilling across the region, including in Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Yemen. Taking an average of the protest scores for all 19 Middle East and North African, or “MENA” countries, the regional trend is clear.

The content analysis data measuring trends in protests for these countries were highly correlated—some more so than others. A group of countries that was particularly correlated over the course of the year was, Bahrain, Iran, Libya, Oman, Syria, and Yemen.

August 19, 2011
By Colston Reid
The Fund for Peace Commentary

“The people want to change the regime.” It was the chant which started in Tunisia and quickly spread across the Arab World. But nowhere did these words resonate more strongly than in Egypt where angry protesters remained stoic in the face of increasingly brutal repression by government forces loyal to President Hosni Mubarak. For 18 days President Mubarak clung to the last vestiges of power before fading into history, not as a celebrated hero like Anwar al Sadat or Gamal Abdel Nasser before him, but as an impotent despot out of touch with the changing face of his nation.

Egypt has known no other leader for nearly thirty years. It then comes as no surprise that February’s protests, which led to Mubarak’s ouster, where fueled in large part by Egypt’s youth. Unemployed and disenfranchised these well-educated twenty-somethings were constantly reminded of the Egypt their grandparents knew: wealthy, strong, and the ideological cornerstone of the Arab World. The Egypt they know today is far different: poor, repressive and corrupt.

June 20, 2011
By Nate Haken
The Failed States Index

After having contracted by 0.5% in 2009, global GDP is now very much in recovery mode, with growth of around 5% in 2010. However, this does not mean smooth sailing either for developing or developed countries. In the last year there have been massive protests against governments’ economic stewardship in countries as disparate as Greece and Burkina Faso, illustrating the sobering truth that under certain conditions recovery can be even more destabilizing than recession.

In 2009, economies in the developed world took a nosedive, as debt crises spread like wildfire, hopping through the Eurozone from Iceland, to Ireland, to Greece, and Portugal. Looking ahead, people are now turning their concern toward Spain. All of these countries, whether or not they have been, or will be, bailed out to stabilize their economies, are facing the necessity of austerity measures to prevent such crises from repeating themselves in the future. These austerity measures are being imposed as economies are now deemed strong enough to withstand them. Nevertheless, they have sparked protests, which have sometimes turned violent. Meanwhile, the recovering global economy is contributing to rising food and fuel prices, which have sparked massive protests and military crackdowns in Mozambique, Uganda, and Burkina Faso.

February 25, 2011
By Kenneth C. Brill
The Fund for Peace Commentary

In June 2010, Mohammed ElBaradei told a meeting of Egyptian reformers and lawyers that Egypt’s negative ranking (in the lowest quartile) in The Fund for Peace’s “Failed States Index” was a “disaster” that demanded the urgent attention of the Egyptian people. With President Mubarak’s departure, those involved in the ongoing transition process in Cairo and, indeed, all the Egyptian people now have a chance to provide that urgent attention.

In the wake of the Tahrir Square demonstrations, many promises have been made, principally to address the democratization and human rights demands of the demonstrators and the public more broadly. This is a good start. However, a careful look at the reasons Egypt ranked so poorly on the “Failed States Index” suggests there are other important areas that must be addressed if Egypt is to move from failing to successful state status.

February 11, 2011
By Heidi Ann Davis
The Fund for Peace Commentary

As the Egyptian government of Hosni Mubarak falls, it is remarkable that the outpouring of popular anger on the streets of Cairo that led to his ouster actually began 2,109 km away in Tunisia.

On 28 December 2010, a 26-year-old sat down in front of the municipal building in Sidi Bouzid, Tunisia, doused himself with a liter and half of gasoline and lit himself on fire. Five years from now, it is doubtful that people will remember the name of Mohamed Bouazizi, but they will remember he started a revolution, not only in his own country, but in Egypt as well. The story of a desperate college graduate committing suicide in such a public and particularly gruesome manner for losing his vegetable cart is now one for the history books.