Published January 11, 2012 | By Joelle Burbank, Nate Haken, Erin Crandell, Julie Andrus

Incumbent president and recent Nobel laureate Ellen Johnson Sirleaf was declared the winner of the runoff election held on November 8th, 2011. After asserting that the October 8th election was not as fair as the United Nations and other international bodies declared it to be, opposition leader Winston Tubman and his supporters boycotted the run-off election, resulting in a turnout that was only about 37% of the voting age population, and almost half of the turnout in the October 8th election.

This is the second election held in Liberia after years of civil war, and this is the first to be overseen by an independent Liberian election board. While international observers declared the election to be free and fair, there were multiple reports gathered during the June to November period of intimidation of political opponents, election irregularities and government corruption. In this atmosphere, the boycott further undermines the perceived legitimacy of the government in the eyes of the local population.

Publication CR-11-18-UL
Published June 22, 2011
By Nate Haken, Annie Janus

Nigeria’s national and state elections, held in April of this year were rightly praised as the freest and fairest of Nigeria’s history. But that success was not necessarily tangible to everyone on the ground. As reported by local civil society organizations in the UNLocK early warning network, there were significant problems before, during, and after the elections, including ballot box snatching, vote buying, and a lot of political violence. These ongoing problems need to be recognized and addressed for this successful election to be consolidated as a turning point for democracy in Nigeria.

June 20, 2011
By Joelle Burbank
The Failed States Index

This will be the year of the African election, with 27 countries scheduled to choose their presidential, legislative or local leadership at the polls. Elections can be tumultuous times, particularly in conflict-affected countries, as demonstrated in recent years in Cote d’Ivoire, Kenya, Zimbabwe, and elsewhere. Given the challenges inherent in democratization, this year’s elections in Africa are being watched very closely. Here is a glimpse at a few of the African countries that have recently held, or are planning to hold, presidential elections this year and how they fared on the Failed States Index.

Publication CR-11-08-UL
Report available in PDF and Flash formats

The period of August—December 2010 was a very political season in Uganda, with the NRM (National Resistance Movement) primaries in August, the nomination of presidential candidates in October, followed by the beginning of the campaigns for the February 2011 elections. Thus, as could be expected, there was a sharp increase in reports coming from the UNLocK participants relating to political factors. Whereas in the previous five months there were relatively few reports relating to state legitimacy, this issue, particularly incidents of corruption and election irregularities, were reported frequently by participants from August to December. There were fears expressed about the potential for election violence, especially considering the 2009 and 2010 riots in Kampala, which some felt could be reignited in the heat of the contest. However, although there were a few reports of violence and intimidation, this was less of an issue in the run-up to the election than many had anticipated, especially as compared with previous Ugandan elections.

Publication CR-11-13-UL
Report available in PDF and Flash formats

Elections are important for the renewal of the social contract between the people and their government.  But that process of renewal can be rocky, as was vividly illustrated in Côte d’Ivoire in late 2010.  In light of how difficult elections can be, the Fund for Peace has been working with civil society in Nigeria, Liberia, and Uganda for improved local capacity in communication and conducting situational assessments in the run-up to 2011 elections.  The Ugandan election took place on February 18, the Liberian election is scheduled for October, and the Nigerian election is scheduled for April, 2011. This report, the latest in a series of reports on Liberia, analyses events in the country during 2010 and examines some of the challenges that face Liberia in the lead-up to the 2011 presidential elections.

Publication CR-11-09-UL
Report available in PDF and Flash formats

During the period covered by this report (August-November 2010) the election season was getting under way. This report compiles the incidents and issues documented by civil society in the UNLocK Nigeria early warning network, with a particular focus on the state and local levels in the Niger Delta region. According to these incident reports, candidates reportedly engaged in intimidation against their opponents. Candidates and their family member were kidnapped or killed. Criminal and vigilante elements were reportedly co-opted or recruited for political reasons. Officials were accused of corruption. The government’s rebel amnesty program continued to falter due in part to ambiguity and controversy over who is eligible to participate. Floods destroyed homes and poverty.