Published July 19, 2012 | By Felipe Umaña

Before the 2011 revolution and civil war, Libya was a beacon of success on the African continent, albeit a paradoxical one. In 2009, for instance, Libya boasted the highest human development index score in Africa, and was also amongst the five best performers in terms of GDP per capita. And yet, the country’s eastern region saw — and continues to see — little economic development. The rule of law and the state’s legitimacy declined markedly during dictator Muammar Gaddafi’s near 42-year rule, while Gaddafi’s unorthodox and frequently bizarre antics won the country international pariah status for many years, in part due to the regime’s links to global terrorism.

The 2011 violence left Libya with much to rebuild, in terms of both physical infrastructure and the social, economic, and political fabric of the nation. Numerous buildings and roads, as well as key oil facilities, sustained heavy damage as a result of the struggle between pro-Gaddafi forces and the National Transitional Council (NTC) rebels.

The 16.2 point worsening between 2011-2012 was the largest year-on-year change for a country in the 8-year history of the Failed States Index, underscoring the seriousness of the situation in Libya. Post-war Libya faces myriad threats to its future development, not least of which is the existence a youthful population clamoring for jobs and increased economic growth despite the country’s current state of disarray.

Published June 18, 2012 | By J. J. Messner

Upon first glance, it could be easy to assume that there is very little new to be found in the 2012 Failed States Index. After all, Finland has managed to win back-to-back best-place on the Index and Somalia now has the ignominious distinction of five-straight worst-place finishes. Nine of the worst ten in 2012 are the same as in 2011; meanwhile, the “best ten” at the sustainable end of the index are the same ten countries as in 2011. So, nothing has really changed, right?

Wrong.

Though a quick glance of the 2012 Failed States Index could suggest business as usual, the Index actually saw some of the most dramatic shifts in the eight-year history of the Index, which was first published in 2005. In those eight years, three of the four most significant “worsenings” occurred in 2012. Prior to this year’s Index, the most significant decline had been Lebanon in 2007 – which worsened by 11.9 points – coinciding with the conflict with neighboring Israel. This year, two countries managed to beat that record, and both for very different reasons.

Unsurprisingly, the greatest worsening was that of Libya (a 16.2 point year-on-year rise from 2011), as the country endured a civil war, sustained NATO bombing and the overthrow and assassination of its reviled leader, Colonel Muammar Qaddafi. After finishing 111th on the 2011 Index, Libya now finds itself at 50th.

Published June 18, 2012 | By J. J. Messner

It probably comes as little surprise that the most worsened country in the 2012 Failed States Index was Libya. As the convulsions of the Arab Spring reached Libya, the nation spiraled from protest to brutal repression to civil war to regime change.

Though Libya’s decline in the 2012 Index is hardly shocking, what does make it all the more remarkable is the scale of that decline. Indeed, the 16.2 point year-on-year increase since the 2011 Index marks the largest single year decline of a country in the history of the Failed States Index, eclipsing the previous record of 11.9 point jump experienced by Lebanon between 2006 and 2007 as a result of the short conflict with neighboring Israel. Libya also shot up 61 places, from 111th in 2011 to 50th in 2012.

With the support of NATO airstrikes, the rebels of the National Transitional Council (NTC) managed to overthrow the tyrannical Muammar Qaddafi and move the country more towards democratic governance. Were it not for the relative stability imposed upon the country towards the end of the year, there is every possibility that Libya could have worsened even more than it actually did.

Published June 18, 2012 | By Nate Haken

In analyzing the Arab Spring, metaphors matter. If it was a seasonal awakening of democracy we should throw open the windows, that is, welcome it. If it was a contagion of unrest, then we should board up the doors, i.e., control it. If it was a pressure cooker blowing its top, the response should be cautious and deliberate; in other words, we should manage it.

The Failed States Index (FSI) does not conclusively answer the question of which metaphor is most apt, though CAST, the methodology behind the index would tend to preference the last one, with its basic construct of pressures and institutional capacities as a theoretical framework for understanding state fragility and failure.

A look at the content analysis data, aggregated monthly by country, gives us a better picture of what happened over the course of the year. The beginning of the year was the most eventful in terms of protest and collective action. First, in January, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia went into exile. Then, in February, President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt stepped down. This was followed by three months (February, March, and April), of protests spilling across the region, including in Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Yemen. Taking an average of the protest scores for all 19 Middle East and North African, or “MENA” countries, the regional trend is clear.

The content analysis data measuring trends in protests for these countries were highly correlated—some more so than others. A group of countries that was particularly correlated over the course of the year was, Bahrain, Iran, Libya, Oman, Syria, and Yemen.

Published March 30, 2012 | By Felipe Umaña

The Congress for the People of Cyrenaica, which was held in eastern Libya’s largest city, Benghazi, attracted international attention after the group demanded greater autonomy from the central government in Tripoli and a reversion to the federal Libya that existed in the 1950s.

Cyrenaica — or Barqa, as it is referred to locally — stretches from the littoral town of Sirte (known famously as the birthplace of Muammar Gaddafi) to the eastern border with Egypt. The globally recognized representative of the Libyan people, the Tripoli-headquartered National Transitional Council (NTC), immediately rejected demands for greater self-government. Believing that more self-government may lead to the division of the Libyan state, the leader of the NTC, Mustafa Abdel Jalil, promised to defend the unity of Libya by force, if necessary.

Political representatives in Cyrenaica have no intention of backing down from their recent calls for more independence from Tripoli. The reasons behind this “final and irreversible” call for Cyrenaican autonomy are plentiful and deserve attention. However, rash actions and force of any kind can transform this issue into a catalyst for civil unrest and pit Tripoli and Benghazi against each other. Any further tensions could easily push this call for greater autonomy into a large-scale division of Libya.

As a country still in political flux, Libya may not be prepared to withstand the consequences of Cyrenaica’s unofficial bid for more self-government. In order for the country to maintain peace and order, both the central government and civic leaders in Cyrenaica will have approach political talks with transparency and open minds. If not, Libya could become Africa’s next Somalia.

Published February 29, 2012 | By J. J. Messner

Libya is currently undergoing a period of reconstruction after having endured a months-long civil war that brought to an end over four decades of dictatorial rule by Colonel Muammar al-Qadhafi. As the country stabilizes and rebuilds, there will be significant interest in new and renewed investment in the country. It will be necessary for businesses to understand the challenges facing Libya in the short- and medium-term and to invest and operate responsibly in the country.

Only the rapid and urgent creation of economic opportunity carries the power to prevent the worsening of a multitude of potential conflict drivers. Increased investment will be a key catalyst for these economic opportunities and such investment will require a more secure and stable operating environment. This security and stability will be reliant on professional and adequately trained state security forces. The international community is uniquely positioned to take advantage of this window of opportunity to engage the Libyan government, and in turn provide technical assistance to pursue the objective of security sector reform and capacity building in the “New Libya.”

Published December 1, 2011 | By J. J. Messner and Michael Shank

With the excitement about Moammar Gadhafi’s downfall beginning to fade, Libya’s new management has begun governing and reconstructing the war-torn nation. Plenty of attention is being paid to the governance angle: Is the National Transitional Council a legitimate, representative body? When will elections be held? Is the new Libya going to be run by Islamists? Certainly these are important issues. Just as important, however, is the Libyan economy and how to get Libyans back to work.

The issue of employment is significant for a couple of reasons. First, though Gadhafi was a pariah who oppressed his people, these were not the only reasons Libyans eventually saw to his downfall. The Gadhafi regime had for decades deprived much of the population of economic opportunities, and the revolution was as much about economic disempowerment as it was about tyranny. Libya’s new leadership must recognize that it will be expected to deliver economic opportunities quickly.

June 20, 2011
By J. J. Messner
The Failed States Index

If the Failed States Index were a championship, then Somalia would be the undisputed four-time champion (or cellar-dweller, depending on how you look at it). In the seven years of the Failed States Index, Somalia has had the ignominious distinction of occupying the worst spot for the past four years straight. Despite having a relatively functional and pretty much autonomous ‘state’ in the north, Somaliland, the country as a whole still manages to score badly enough to make up for that glimmer of unrecognized hope. Worse still, the country is in no danger of losing its position anytime soon. A combination of widespread lawlessness, ineffective government, terrorism, insurgency, crime, abysmal development and a penchant for inconveniencing the rest of the world by taking their merchant vessels hostage has given Somalia a score that – much as they seem to try – neither Chad, Sudan, Zimbabwe nor the Democratic Republic of Congo can hope to match.