Published November 12, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford

In 2010, Parliament approved a package of wide-ranging constitutional reforms aimed at transferring key powers of the President to the Prime Minister. Improvements in indicators for group grievance and state legitimacy, although marginal, reflect these efforts. Massive floods in 2010 killed an estimated 2,000 people and affected more than 20 million. High water from monsoon rains in August and September 2011 have displaced an additional 1.8 million people and affected more than 5.4 million people in Sindh and Balochistan Provinces. Aided by U.S. funding, the Pakistani intelligence and security forces are fighting Taliban groups in remote sections of north-western Pakistan on the border with Afghanistan. Former President Musharraf declared rule by martial law in 2007, and this is yet to be rescinded by current President Zardari. Tensions with India over disputed territory in Kashmir often elicit concerns over war between two nuclear powers. High inflation, unemployment, and a youth bulge threaten future economic growth.

Published October 14, 2011 | By Kendall Lawrence

The Haqqani Network is an insurgent group that operates from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) region of Pakistan. The group has been active mainly in the southeast of Afghanistan—in Paktia, Paktika, Khost, Ghazni Wardak and, occasionally, Kabul provinces. For the past two years, the group has focused on gaining support and control of Kurram Agency, a province of Pakistan not far from Kabul, which is mostly beyond the scope of U.S. drone activity. It is led by Siraj Haqqani, the son of the network’s founder, the famous anti-Soviet fighter and former CIA asset, Jalaluddin Haqqani. The Network falls under the larger umbrella of the Taliban, although they maintain their own command and control structures.

Published October 14, 2011 | By Ryan Costello and Ed Nagle

Revelations from the 2004 exposure of the A. Q. Khan network have highlighted the importance of this region in global nonproliferation efforts. While terrorism is by no means constrained to the Afghanistan/Pakistan border, the confluence of intent, knowledge and materials is found in this region. It remains uncertain if all nodes of the Khan network have been identified. Other leading Pakistani scient ist s have demonstrated a willingness to share nuclear knowledge if not material capabilities. The diversity of suppliers in quantity, location and specialty has made confirmation tentative at best. Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program is extensive and ongoing. The infrastructure that enabled Khan’s prolonged success remains in place. In addition, the intentions of individual members of Pakistan’s intelligence and military leadership have been called into question as a result of revelations regarding Bin Laden’s death.

August 15, 2011
By Nate Haken
Foreign Policy Magazine

Let me be clear. We are not saying that Pakistan is a “failed state.” This index does not make that determination. Rather, it identifies pressures on states that put them at risk of failure, unless the state institutions are sufficiently professional, representative, and legitimate to deal effectively with those pressures.

The point of the Failed States Index is to provide a tool by which all stakeholders, including government, civil society, and the private sector, can clearly see which social, economic, and political/security indicators are exhibiting the most stress, so that everyone can work together for sustainable security and conflict-sensitive development over the long term. Every country in the world has a risk profile. Some states are under more pressure than others. And as the Minister points out in his letter, the state of Pakistan is under enormous pressure, which accounts for its ranking in our Index.

Published April 26, 2011 | By Jonas Vaicikonis

North Korea threatens world security by hastening the spread of nuclear weapons and related technologies to state and non-state actors interested in acquiring nuclear weapons. The North uses two pathways to acquire banned nuclear equipment for itself and for others: through state-to-state contact and through its network of individuals engaged in illicit trade. Both pathways pose a danger to the international community, but it is increasingly North Korea’s collaborations with other states interested in nuclear weapons technology that threaten the global nonproliferation regime. North Korea’s unscrupulous history of selling narcotics, counterfeiting currency, and selling arms does not encourage optimism in its willingness to refrain from spreading nuclear weapons technology. Indeed, the examples in this paper demonstrate that North Korea’s relationships with Pakistan, Syria, and Iran have advanced the nuclear programs of all four states, despite United Nation’s sanctions.

Published February 1, 2011 | By Ryan Costello

Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and materials represent a significant proliferation risk that could become a target for terrorist groups operating within the country and in neighboring countries, such as Afghanistan. Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and materials exist in the context of state instability and fragility, the legacy of the A.Q. Khan network, and alleged ties between the government and Islamist militants. The possibility that terrorists could obtain nuclear weapons or materials, either through an assault on nuclear facilities or with internal assistance, should not be underestimated.