Published July 8, 2011 | By J. J. Messner, Nate Haken, Joelle Burbank and Kendall Lawrence

As a result of the January 2011 referendum for independence, South Sudan formally declared its autonomy from the Republic of Sudan on July 9. Amid the celebration, there is growing recognition that from the start, the world’s newest country is guaranteed to face enormous pressures both from within its territory and from across the border. Testing its legitimacy, the Government of South Sudan will face the challenge of accommodating minority groups struggling for representation and power within the new structure. At the same time, the state will need to establish control over the entire territory without violating the human rights of those groups which are loathe to integrate politically and militarily. Border skirmishes between the SPLA and northern forces are likely, which could implicate affinity groups that straddle both countries, further complicating the internal pressures cited above.  Disputes with the Republic of Sudan over oil revenues could prove combustible, with implications for development and security in South Sudan. These political and security issues will occur in the context of ethnic tensions, poverty, drought, disease, population displacement, rudimentary infrastructure, and inadequate essential service delivery.  It will take much work and support for the Republic of South Sudan to succeed.

June 20, 2011
By J. J. Messner
The Failed States Index

If the Failed States Index were a championship, then Somalia would be the undisputed four-time champion (or cellar-dweller, depending on how you look at it). In the seven years of the Failed States Index, Somalia has had the ignominious distinction of occupying the worst spot for the past four years straight. Despite having a relatively functional and pretty much autonomous ‘state’ in the north, Somaliland, the country as a whole still manages to score badly enough to make up for that glimmer of unrecognized hope. Worse still, the country is in no danger of losing its position anytime soon. A combination of widespread lawlessness, ineffective government, terrorism, insurgency, crime, abysmal development and a penchant for inconveniencing the rest of the world by taking their merchant vessels hostage has given Somalia a score that – much as they seem to try – neither Chad, Sudan, Zimbabwe nor the Democratic Republic of Congo can hope to match.

Published May 13, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford

Serbia has made significant progress in recent years, as it has seriously pursued social, economic, and political reforms in order to continue its progress towards eligibility for E.U. membership. However, there remain areas of concern which have the potential to reverse Serbia’s progress toward stability. In order to sustain economic development, the country will need to address unemployment problems while managing its external debt and pursue tax reform. In addition, political polarization, corruption and the impunity of organized criminal groups could threaten the country’s institutional strength. The issue of Kosovo’s independence — and its acceptance or not by Serbia —will continue to influence Serbia’s international legitimacy and regional stability. Serbia’s transition will rest on its ability to maintain momentum for reforms.

Published February 25, 2011 | By Jonas Vaicikonis

Status of International Nonproliferation and Counterterrorism Efforts in East and Southeast Europe