Published August 8, 2012 | By Felipe Umaña

Sudan has been characterized by war and instability for over two decades and has twice been ranked at the top of the Failed States Index, in 2006 and 2007. Despite being very resource-rich, Sudan has experienced significant internal security challenges under the leadership of Omar al-Bashir, who himself became the first sitting leader of a country to be indicted by the International Criminal Court.

The outcome of a 2011 independence referendum split the former Sudan into two countries, creating the new nation of South Sudan after years of internal disagreements. Even after the secession of South Sudan, hostilities remain between both countries, with a return to violence a constant threat. The situation with South Sudan continues to add pressure to both countries, specifically in terms of a growing refugee population, weak and unpredictable economies, and inadequate and damaged infrastructure. This is compounded by ongoing conflict in the Darfur region of the country, where human rights abuses are endemic. Sudan’s economic situation will likely worsen given that most of its former oil fields now lie on the South Sudanese side of the border. Despite a slight improving trend from 2007 to 2011, Sudan’s myriad problems will continue to heavily overshadow any improvements.

Published June 18, 2012 | By T. Anderson, R. Jaeger, F. Umaña, N. Manning, A. Whitehead.

1. Somalia As the situation in Somalia continued to deteriorate in 2011, the country remains at the top of the Failed States Index for the fifth year in succession. Ten out of twelve of Somalia’s indicators scores were above 9.0 on a scale of 10. Indeed, the Refugees and IDPs as well as the Security Apparatus indicator scores remain at the highest possible level of 10.0. The absence of a permanent national government for twenty years was aggravated in 2011 by an upsurge of violence, massive human rights abuses and natural disasters. Worsened social conditions have added to political instability which led to mass displacement and impoverishment. Somalia also continues to be a relentless headache for international shipping, with the unrelenting activities of Somali pirates deep into the Indian Ocean. Despite attempts by external actors such as the African Union and neighboring Kenya to intervene in the conflict, terrorist activity by al-Shabaab and general unabating lawlessness has hampered such efforts.
—Raphaël Jaeger

Published June 18, 2012 | By Kendall Lawrence

Holding the title as the world’s newest nation, South Sudan gained its independence on July 9, 2011. With only a half year of data belonging to the new country, it was scored but not ranked on this year’s Failed States Index (FSI). Had it been ranked, it would have come in 4th on the index, just better than its parent to the north, Sudan.

It represents only the third occasion that the Fund for Peace has divided a country for the purpose of analysis. Most recently, Serbia has been divided twice since the beginning of the FSI: in 2007, Serbia and Montenegro were analyzed separately after the previous union was dissolved. More recently in 2011, Kosovo was removed from analysis on Serbia (though Kosovo is not analyzed as part of the Failed States Index as it is not a UN-recognized state). As countries split, pressures will shift, historically reducing, though that may not be the case with Sudan and South Sudan. Despite the split, active conflict between the neighboring states has continued.

South Sudan’s contemporary history as a nation is short and is focused primarily on its separation from the north. This year, more than any other, the scores of the two nations are intertwined. Because the split happened halfway through the year, the consequences and reactions are reflected clearly. It is important to look at where there are differences in the scores of the two countries. South Sudan has inherited many social and political problems from the older nation.

Published October 31, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford

Instability and violence continue to define Sudan. The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), signed in January 2005, granted a referendum on independence for Southern Sudan. The southern half of the country voted to secede from the north in January 2011 and Southern Sudan became an independent country on 9 July 2011. Initially, it was hoped that this may reduce sectarian violence between the Muslim-dominated North and the generally Christian and animist South, though new clashes are being reported, especially around the disputed town of Abyei. The discovery of oil in southern Sudan in 2005 exacerbated an already complex secession crisis and it remains to be seen how peaceful the planned separation will be. Violence also continues in Darfur, a region in western Sudan, sending refugees into central Sudan and also neighboring states, giving the conflict a regional dimension. Leaders in the North and the South will have to exercise restraint and restrict the use of violence by fringe rebel groups if the fragile peace is to be consolidated.

June 20, 2011
By J. J. Messner
The Failed States Index

If the Failed States Index were a championship, then Somalia would be the undisputed four-time champion (or cellar-dweller, depending on how you look at it). In the seven years of the Failed States Index, Somalia has had the ignominious distinction of occupying the worst spot for the past four years straight. Despite having a relatively functional and pretty much autonomous ‘state’ in the north, Somaliland, the country as a whole still manages to score badly enough to make up for that glimmer of unrecognized hope. Worse still, the country is in no danger of losing its position anytime soon. A combination of widespread lawlessness, ineffective government, terrorism, insurgency, crime, abysmal development and a penchant for inconveniencing the rest of the world by taking their merchant vessels hostage has given Somalia a score that – much as they seem to try – neither Chad, Sudan, Zimbabwe nor the Democratic Republic of Congo can hope to match.

June 20, 2011
By Kristen Blandford, Annie Janus and Kendall Lawrence
The Failed States Index

1. Somalia

On this year’s Failed States Index, Somalia scored as the worst offender for Refugees and IDPs, Economic Decline, Human rights and Security Apparatus. The absence of a permanent national government for almost twenty years has led to ongoing civil violence, economic hardship, poor social conditions, and the displacement of several million Somali citizens. It has become increasingly difficult for international agencies to provide aid to Somalia in light of the recent troubles with piracy and hostility towards foreigners. An upsurge of civil violence in the southern part of the nation has created further destabilization and threatens any potential improvements to Somalia’s condition.