Published July 20, 2012 | By Erin Crandell

The Ba’ath Party has dominated Syrian politics since its ascent to power in 1968. President Bashar al-Assad, who succeeded his father in 2000, has consolidated political and military power in the hands of the Alawite minority. Ethnic tensions between the ruling Alawites and the country’s Sunni majority have existed for generations, manifesting themselves in the 1989 Hama massacre. Syria was swept up in the Arab Spring beginning in late January, when activists began holding widespread protests against the ruling Ba’ath Party. In response to the protests, Assad briefly attempted to institute reforms similar to those attempted in the early 2000s; however, after decades of emergency rule and one-party politics, the reforms were seen as inadequate. April 2011 marked the beginning of what has been over a year of bloodshed perpetrated by government forces against the opposition movement.

Syria skyrocketed up the Failed States Index from 48th place in 2011 to 23rd in 2012, the fourth-largest year-on-year worsening in the history of the Index. As the overall situation deteriorates the country is likely to continue rising. In total, nine of the twelve indicators worsened significantly. Civilian protestors and army defectors fighting under the banner of the “Free Syria Army” have engaged the government in clashes nationwide, leading to a high number of civilian casualties. Extreme human rights abuses committed by both sides have caused a stream of refugees to flee into neighboring countries, further destabilizing the region.

Published June 18, 2012 | By J. J. Messner

Upon first glance, it could be easy to assume that there is very little new to be found in the 2012 Failed States Index. After all, Finland has managed to win back-to-back best-place on the Index and Somalia now has the ignominious distinction of five-straight worst-place finishes. Nine of the worst ten in 2012 are the same as in 2011; meanwhile, the “best ten” at the sustainable end of the index are the same ten countries as in 2011. So, nothing has really changed, right?

Wrong.

Though a quick glance of the 2012 Failed States Index could suggest business as usual, the Index actually saw some of the most dramatic shifts in the eight-year history of the Index, which was first published in 2005. In those eight years, three of the four most significant “worsenings” occurred in 2012. Prior to this year’s Index, the most significant decline had been Lebanon in 2007 – which worsened by 11.9 points – coinciding with the conflict with neighboring Israel. This year, two countries managed to beat that record, and both for very different reasons.

Unsurprisingly, the greatest worsening was that of Libya (a 16.2 point year-on-year rise from 2011), as the country endured a civil war, sustained NATO bombing and the overthrow and assassination of its reviled leader, Colonel Muammar Qaddafi. After finishing 111th on the 2011 Index, Libya now finds itself at 50th.

Published June 18, 2012 | By Nate Haken

In analyzing the Arab Spring, metaphors matter. If it was a seasonal awakening of democracy we should throw open the windows, that is, welcome it. If it was a contagion of unrest, then we should board up the doors, i.e., control it. If it was a pressure cooker blowing its top, the response should be cautious and deliberate; in other words, we should manage it.

The Failed States Index (FSI) does not conclusively answer the question of which metaphor is most apt, though CAST, the methodology behind the index would tend to preference the last one, with its basic construct of pressures and institutional capacities as a theoretical framework for understanding state fragility and failure.

A look at the content analysis data, aggregated monthly by country, gives us a better picture of what happened over the course of the year. The beginning of the year was the most eventful in terms of protest and collective action. First, in January, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia went into exile. Then, in February, President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt stepped down. This was followed by three months (February, March, and April), of protests spilling across the region, including in Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Yemen. Taking an average of the protest scores for all 19 Middle East and North African, or “MENA” countries, the regional trend is clear.

The content analysis data measuring trends in protests for these countries were highly correlated—some more so than others. A group of countries that was particularly correlated over the course of the year was, Bahrain, Iran, Libya, Oman, Syria, and Yemen.

Published June 18, 2012 | By Natalie Manning

The Arab Spring was one of the biggest stories of 2011, and many of its effects have been registered in the 2012 Failed States Index — Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia and Yemen all saw their scores seriously worsen. For some, the tension has eased, at least for now. For others, conflict and instability continues.

The Arab Spring hit Syria in April 2011 with demonstrations in the southern town of Dara’a against the government’s heavy handed response to students who had spray painted anti-government slogans. The uprising quickly spread and President Bashar al-Assad’s security forces brutally cracked down on the population. By late 2011, the opposition had transformed from a peaceful movement into an armed insurrection. An estimated 13,000 people have died since the conflict began, and thousands more have been displaced as the country spirals further towards civil war.

Until 2012, Syria’s ranking on the Failed States Index had been steadily improving, moving up 19 places since 2005. However, in 2012, Syria was the third most worsened country, slipping 8.6 points, a change that ranks it as the fourth-most significant decline in the history of the Index. Syria’s performance so far this year also puts it at risk of continued decline in the 2013 Index, as a significant uptick in violence has already been witnessed in the first half of 2012.

Published April 26, 2011 | By Jonas Vaicikonis

North Korea threatens world security by hastening the spread of nuclear weapons and related technologies to state and non-state actors interested in acquiring nuclear weapons. The North uses two pathways to acquire banned nuclear equipment for itself and for others: through state-to-state contact and through its network of individuals engaged in illicit trade. Both pathways pose a danger to the international community, but it is increasingly North Korea’s collaborations with other states interested in nuclear weapons technology that threaten the global nonproliferation regime. North Korea’s unscrupulous history of selling narcotics, counterfeiting currency, and selling arms does not encourage optimism in its willingness to refrain from spreading nuclear weapons technology. Indeed, the examples in this paper demonstrate that North Korea’s relationships with Pakistan, Syria, and Iran have advanced the nuclear programs of all four states, despite United Nation’s sanctions.