Published June 18, 2012 | By J. J. Messner

Upon first glance, it could be easy to assume that there is very little new to be found in the 2012 Failed States Index. After all, Finland has managed to win back-to-back best-place on the Index and Somalia now has the ignominious distinction of five-straight worst-place finishes. Nine of the worst ten in 2012 are the same as in 2011; meanwhile, the “best ten” at the sustainable end of the index are the same ten countries as in 2011. So, nothing has really changed, right?

Wrong.

Though a quick glance of the 2012 Failed States Index could suggest business as usual, the Index actually saw some of the most dramatic shifts in the eight-year history of the Index, which was first published in 2005. In those eight years, three of the four most significant “worsenings” occurred in 2012. Prior to this year’s Index, the most significant decline had been Lebanon in 2007 – which worsened by 11.9 points – coinciding with the conflict with neighboring Israel. This year, two countries managed to beat that record, and both for very different reasons.

Unsurprisingly, the greatest worsening was that of Libya (a 16.2 point year-on-year rise from 2011), as the country endured a civil war, sustained NATO bombing and the overthrow and assassination of its reviled leader, Colonel Muammar Qaddafi. After finishing 111th on the 2011 Index, Libya now finds itself at 50th.

Published June 18, 2012 | By Nate Haken

In analyzing the Arab Spring, metaphors matter. If it was a seasonal awakening of democracy we should throw open the windows, that is, welcome it. If it was a contagion of unrest, then we should board up the doors, i.e., control it. If it was a pressure cooker blowing its top, the response should be cautious and deliberate; in other words, we should manage it.

The Failed States Index (FSI) does not conclusively answer the question of which metaphor is most apt, though CAST, the methodology behind the index would tend to preference the last one, with its basic construct of pressures and institutional capacities as a theoretical framework for understanding state fragility and failure.

A look at the content analysis data, aggregated monthly by country, gives us a better picture of what happened over the course of the year. The beginning of the year was the most eventful in terms of protest and collective action. First, in January, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia went into exile. Then, in February, President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt stepped down. This was followed by three months (February, March, and April), of protests spilling across the region, including in Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Yemen. Taking an average of the protest scores for all 19 Middle East and North African, or “MENA” countries, the regional trend is clear.

The content analysis data measuring trends in protests for these countries were highly correlated—some more so than others. A group of countries that was particularly correlated over the course of the year was, Bahrain, Iran, Libya, Oman, Syria, and Yemen.

June 20, 2011
By J. J. Messner
The Failed States Index

If the Failed States Index were a championship, then Somalia would be the undisputed four-time champion (or cellar-dweller, depending on how you look at it). In the seven years of the Failed States Index, Somalia has had the ignominious distinction of occupying the worst spot for the past four years straight. Despite having a relatively functional and pretty much autonomous ‘state’ in the north, Somaliland, the country as a whole still manages to score badly enough to make up for that glimmer of unrecognized hope. Worse still, the country is in no danger of losing its position anytime soon. A combination of widespread lawlessness, ineffective government, terrorism, insurgency, crime, abysmal development and a penchant for inconveniencing the rest of the world by taking their merchant vessels hostage has given Somalia a score that – much as they seem to try – neither Chad, Sudan, Zimbabwe nor the Democratic Republic of Congo can hope to match.

Published May 17, 2011 | By Alessandra Wasserstrom

Due to Tunisia’s strong economic connections to Europe, it has been hit hard by the economic recessions that has affected multiple European countries. This has created high unemployment and rising food prices and ultimately deep dissatisfaction and unrest amongst the people. This discontent came to the fore when protests erupted in December 2010, ultimately leading to the ouster of long-standing president, Zine Ben Ali. The resignation of Ben Ali has left a power vacuum as the Tunisian people struggle to find an appropriate form of governance to fill the gaping leadership hole while searching for a solution of their economic woes. Regional instability — not least the ongoing conflict across the border in Libya — will also continue to undermine Tunisia’s transition.

February 11, 2011
By Heidi Ann Davis
The Fund for Peace Commentary

As the Egyptian government of Hosni Mubarak falls, it is remarkable that the outpouring of popular anger on the streets of Cairo that led to his ouster actually began 2,109 km away in Tunisia.

On 28 December 2010, a 26-year-old sat down in front of the municipal building in Sidi Bouzid, Tunisia, doused himself with a liter and half of gasoline and lit himself on fire. Five years from now, it is doubtful that people will remember the name of Mohamed Bouazizi, but they will remember he started a revolution, not only in his own country, but in Egypt as well. The story of a desperate college graduate committing suicide in such a public and particularly gruesome manner for losing his vegetable cart is now one for the history books.

January 19, 2011
By Kenneth C. Brill
The Fund for Peace Commentary

It is fair to say that developments in Tunisia over the last week surprised virtually all observers and we at The Fund for Peace count ourselves among those who would not have predicted the timing of the middle class revolt against the Tunisian regime. Nonetheless, Tunisia’s ranking of 122 (out of 177 states reviewed), which put it in the “warning zone,” in The Fund for Peace’s Failed States Index was based on the very factors that produced the “surprising” events of last weekend.