Published August 22, 2012 | By Natalie Manning

Despite some gains made after the 2011 revolution, such as a successful transition of government, new President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi faces many challenges. Ousted President Ali Abdullah Saleh still yields considerable power in the country, and President Hadi has been unable to purge many of Saleh’s loyalists who hold top positions in the government and military. The South remains unsettled due to the presence of a militant insurgency. In addition, the extreme terrain in Yemen makes it the ideal haven for rebels and al-Qaeda militants, with several terrorist bomb attacks occurring in Yemen in early 2012. Many Yemeni are still very poor, there is a high illiteracy rate and rampant government corruption.

Published June 18, 2012 | By T. Anderson, R. Jaeger, F. Umaña, N. Manning, A. Whitehead.

1. Somalia As the situation in Somalia continued to deteriorate in 2011, the country remains at the top of the Failed States Index for the fifth year in succession. Ten out of twelve of Somalia’s indicators scores were above 9.0 on a scale of 10. Indeed, the Refugees and IDPs as well as the Security Apparatus indicator scores remain at the highest possible level of 10.0. The absence of a permanent national government for twenty years was aggravated in 2011 by an upsurge of violence, massive human rights abuses and natural disasters. Worsened social conditions have added to political instability which led to mass displacement and impoverishment. Somalia also continues to be a relentless headache for international shipping, with the unrelenting activities of Somali pirates deep into the Indian Ocean. Despite attempts by external actors such as the African Union and neighboring Kenya to intervene in the conflict, terrorist activity by al-Shabaab and general unabating lawlessness has hampered such efforts.
—Raphaël Jaeger

Published June 18, 2012 | By Nate Haken

In analyzing the Arab Spring, metaphors matter. If it was a seasonal awakening of democracy we should throw open the windows, that is, welcome it. If it was a contagion of unrest, then we should board up the doors, i.e., control it. If it was a pressure cooker blowing its top, the response should be cautious and deliberate; in other words, we should manage it.

The Failed States Index (FSI) does not conclusively answer the question of which metaphor is most apt, though CAST, the methodology behind the index would tend to preference the last one, with its basic construct of pressures and institutional capacities as a theoretical framework for understanding state fragility and failure.

A look at the content analysis data, aggregated monthly by country, gives us a better picture of what happened over the course of the year. The beginning of the year was the most eventful in terms of protest and collective action. First, in January, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia went into exile. Then, in February, President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt stepped down. This was followed by three months (February, March, and April), of protests spilling across the region, including in Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Yemen. Taking an average of the protest scores for all 19 Middle East and North African, or “MENA” countries, the regional trend is clear.

The content analysis data measuring trends in protests for these countries were highly correlated—some more so than others. A group of countries that was particularly correlated over the course of the year was, Bahrain, Iran, Libya, Oman, Syria, and Yemen.

Published November 14, 2011 | By Annie Janus and Raphaël Jaeger

Yemen’s performance has worsened for the 5th consecutive year. The situation has especially worsened recently, as the country has experienced significant turmoil since January 2011, when anti-government protestors began. Despite a violent response from the government, the protests have not abated. The situation has further deteriorated with divisions among tribal leaders in their support of President Saleh, resulting in clashes between the opposition and Saleh’s supporters. On 21 October 2011, the UN Security Council Resolution 2014 urged President Saleh to step down after human rights violations and the excessive use of force by the authorities against protesters supported by sections of the army. President Saleh has promised to step down, but has yet to do so. The instability is giving greater opportunity for human traffickers and smugglers while 400,000 refugees and IDPs are reported in Yemen. The country is also facing external intervention pressures, as the United States has recently intensified its covert war against the Yemen-based al Qaeda branch. Even when this period of turmoil calms, Yemen will still require long-term socio-political reforms and reconciliation efforts.

June 20, 2011
By J. J. Messner
The Failed States Index

If the Failed States Index were a championship, then Somalia would be the undisputed four-time champion (or cellar-dweller, depending on how you look at it). In the seven years of the Failed States Index, Somalia has had the ignominious distinction of occupying the worst spot for the past four years straight. Despite having a relatively functional and pretty much autonomous ‘state’ in the north, Somaliland, the country as a whole still manages to score badly enough to make up for that glimmer of unrecognized hope. Worse still, the country is in no danger of losing its position anytime soon. A combination of widespread lawlessness, ineffective government, terrorism, insurgency, crime, abysmal development and a penchant for inconveniencing the rest of the world by taking their merchant vessels hostage has given Somalia a score that – much as they seem to try – neither Chad, Sudan, Zimbabwe nor the Democratic Republic of Congo can hope to match.