June 20, 2011
By Joelle Burbank
The Failed States Index

This will be the year of the African election, with 27 countries scheduled to choose their presidential, legislative or local leadership at the polls. Elections can be tumultuous times, particularly in conflict-affected countries, as demonstrated in recent years in Cote d’Ivoire, Kenya, Zimbabwe, and elsewhere. Given the challenges inherent in democratization, this year’s elections in Africa are being watched very closely. Here is a glimpse at a few of the African countries that have recently held, or are planning to hold, presidential elections this year and how they fared on the Failed States Index.

Uganda
Elections: General, February 2011
Failed States Index Rank: 21st; Total Score: 96.3

In February 2011, Uganda’s president Yoweri Museveni won re-election in a landslide, extending his time in power to thirty years. Many stakeholders noted that harassment and intimidation were less of a problem than in previous elections. On the other hand, the use of state resources for partisan campaigning was reported to be a major problem. The opposition candidates refused to accept the results and attempted to spark protests in the spirit of the so-called Arab Spring. These protests did not gain any traction. However, when the protests were re-cast as demonstrations against rising food and fuel prices, people came out by the thousands. Several people were killed and many arrested. Among those arrested were opposition leaders Kizza Besigye (who was shot in the hand) and Norbert Mao.

According to the Failed States Index 2011 (based on events from 2010), the Ugandan state is under a great deal of pressure, especially with respect to Demographic Pressures (8.8), Uneven Development (8.4), Security Apparatus (8.6) and Factionalized Elites (8.6). Widespread poverty, particularly in rural areas, was exacerbated by the rising costs of food and fuel. Although the conflict with the Lord’s Resistance Army has ended, Uganda still faces challenges from militant groups, including Al-Shabab, which staged bombing attacks in Kampala during the 2010 World Cup that killed at least 74 people. There are also strong divisions among the political elites, with opposition leader Besigye charged with treason (charges were later dismissed by the Constitutional Court) and ongoing tensions between the kingdom of the Buganda and the elected government.

Nigeria
Elections: Presidential, Legislative and Regional, April 2011
Failed States Index Rank: 14th; Total Score: 99.9

The Nigerian elections, held in April 2011, were declared by international observers to be the most credible in the country’s history. However, turbulence comes with the broadening of the political space. Indeed, in the weeks after the election, it became clear that this election was also among the most violent in Nigeria’s history. In addition to local-level candidates who were abducted, killed, or otherwise intimidated prior to the election, post election violence led to the death of hundreds and the displacement of thousands.

Nigeria’s worst scoring indicators for the Failed States Index 2011 were Group Grievance (9.6), Uneven Development (9.0), Legitimacy of the State (9.0), Public Services (9.0), Security Apparatus (9.1), and Factionalized Elites (9.5). The country’s deep grievances along religious and communal lines have resulted in violence in the Niger Delta region, the Middle Belt, and the North. There is also endemic corruption and deep distrust of the state, inadequate public services, and security forces that often operate with impunity. The country is also subject to campaigns of violence by a number of militant and militia groups, including the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND).

Finally, there are deep divisions among the political elites. In this year’s elections, there was controversy over whether the incumbent president, Goodluck Jonathan, a southerner who took over after the death of Umaru Yar’Adau in May, should receive his party’s nomination. Traditionally, power has rotated between politicians from the North and South. President Jonathan was successful both in receiving the nomination and in winning re-election.

Liberia
Elections: General, October 2011
Failed States Index Rank: 26; Total Score: 94.0

Liberia’s elections, scheduled for October 2011, are the second presidential elections since the country’s 14-year civil war which ended in 2003. They are widely viewed as a test of whether the country can maintain its trajectory towards greater stability and democracy.
For the Failed States Index 2011, some of the areas Liberia struggled with the most were Demographic Pressures (8.3), Refugees and IDPs (8.6), Poverty and Economic Decline (8.4), Public Services (8.8), and External Intervention (9.3).

In terms of Demographic Pressures, land conflict is a serious issue that has frequently resulted in violence. There have been numerous disputes between families or individuals over a lack of records on land ownership, and there have also been disputes over the demarcation of town, district or county boundaries that have complicated the voter registration process. Liberia has also been inundated with a major influx of refugees fleeing violence in neighboring Cote d’Ivoire that has put pressure on border communities. Continued widespread poverty and insufficient public services – including education, health care and basic infrastructure such as roads and electricity – are also contributing to the pressure.

Finally, Liberia’s highest indicator score, for External Intervention, is a result of the country’s dependence on the international community for support, including the continued presence of a UN peacekeeping mission.

Democratic Republic of Congo
Elections: General, November 2011
Failed States Index Rank: 4; Total Score: 108.2

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is ranked as the world’s fourth most unstable country on the Failed States Index 2011. Presidential elections in the country have been scheduled for November 2011. These will be the second presidential elections since the end of a civil war that drew in most of the country’s neighbors and killed an estimated three million people. Despite an official end to the conflict in 2003, violence continues to this day, especially in the east of the country.

DRC’s worst scoring indicators include Demographic Pressures (9.7), Refugees and IDPs (9.6), Security Apparatus (9.6) and External Intervention (9.5). The DRC continues to suffer from a humanitarian crisis, particularly in the east. Over 2 million people are displaced within the country, according to UNHCR. Rebel and militia groups still operate within the country, including the Lord’s Resistance Army, which has been driven out of neighboring Uganda. The army has also been implicated in abuses against civilians, including rape and violence. The DRC is also currently host to one of the world’s largest UN peacekeeping missions, based primarily in the eastern provinces.

Image: Tim McKulka/UN