July 15, 2011
By Nate Haken
The Fund for Peace Commentary
Reposted from The Mark News

I have a map of Uganda on my office wall. I put little red stickers on it whenever there are incidents of land conflict, clashes between armed groups, or cases of civil unrest. My map is getting cluttered and difficult to read.

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni was re-elected by a landslide in February. Now, he has a very difficult job ahead of him. Certainly, the aging military man has shown himself to be a strong leader ever since he came to power in 1987. Early in his tenure, he was widely praised for guiding Uganda through a period of difficult economic reform. Though it took almost 20 years, he finally pushed the Lord’s Resistance Army out of Northern Uganda. Under Museveni, Uganda has been a leader in the fight against AIDS. The same is true with respect to the fight against terrorism, especially in Somalia.

But now, with potential instability in neighbouring Sudan to the north, rising food and fuel prices, ethnic tensions domestically, and concerns of backsliding in the areas of democracy and human rights, this next term, Museveni may be confronted with his greatest challenge yet in terms of his fight to maintain stability while promoting economic development and prosperity for the people of Uganda.

Certainly, stability in Uganda is very important to the world, which, in turn, provides Uganda with a great deal of development and military assistance. But recent trends suggest that, over the long term, incidents of civil unrest may come with more frequency and more severity unless the government of Uganda can be more effective in bringing on board those segments of the population that seem to feel marginalized by the political process. Unfortunately, in the last few months, the approach that Museveni has taken in terms of dealing with those who would dissent has been to shut them up.

These last six months – from January to June – have been a rollercoaster in Uganda. First, there was the election. Given ethnic politics domestically, and revolutions to the north in Tunisia and Egypt – which opposition leaders were invoking as models of what could come to pass in Uganda – many were concerned that the elections might turn ugly. To their credit, the security forces were very careful not to enflame these tensions during the election. Perhaps they were conscious of the potential for instability, in light of the 2009 riots held by supporters of the Buganda kingdom, and the subsequent riots that took place in 2010, when the Buganda royal tombs were burned down. Perhaps they were concerned about the ethnic tone to some of the campaigns, and did not want to give anyone an excuse to incite violence. In any event, after the election passed without any major incident, everyone breathed a sigh of relief.

This relief proved premature. Opposition leaders tried to mobilize a protest against what they claimed was a stolen election. The population was not interested in taking up that cause. But when the losing presidential candidates suggested that people protest the rising price of food and fuel, people came out by the thousands in multiple cities, both in the south and in the north.

Historically, the rising price of food has been a catalyst for instability in many countries with high poverty and population growth around the world – especially in 2008, before the global recession hit, bringing down fuel prices. There were food riots and other forms of civil unrest in North, Central, and South Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, South Asia, and the Asia-Pacific region. In Cameroon, dozens were killed in protests. In Haiti, five were killed, including a UN peacekeeper. In Egypt, six were killed in breadlines, and the situation became so dire that then-president Hosni Mubarak ordered the army to get to work baking bread. The global recession put downward pressure on food prices, but now the global economy is recovering and prices are coming back up with a vengeance.

Given this precedent of civil unrest being tied to food prices around the world, it is no surprise that it proved to be to a combustible issue in Uganda, where food prices were reportedly about a third more expensive during this period than they were at the same time last year. People came out by the thousands to protest. By all accounts, the security forces used excessive force. Several people were killed. Many were arrested. Eventually, the protests subsided, but the tensions and uncertainties exposed in these last few months have not gone away.

Nationally, the price of food and fuel is likely to be a long-term problem, as the global economy recovers and Uganda’s population continues to grow at the world’s 6th-highest rate of 3.3 per cent, adding to the demand on food. This problem will be even more severe in years of drought. Furthermore, land conflict continues to be a perpetual issue in the Acholi sub-region of Uganda, where communities are still recovering since the Lord’s Resistance Army left in 2005. Cattle rustling, ambushes, and shootings are still common in the underdeveloped Karamoja region.

In such an environment, good governance is especially important if stability is to be sustainable. If people feel represented by the government – if they feel that they have ownership in the decision-making processes, and that their voices are heard – they will be more likely to pull together and confront the challenges constructively. Recent events suggest that, at least in the short term, polarization within Ugandan society is very high. Now is the time for the leadership to begin reaching out to those who feel marginalized, ignored, or repressed. If leadership does not reach out, then the outbreaks of violence that occurred in 2009, 2010, and 2011 will only become more frequent and more severe.

The Nile River flows from Uganda through the two Sudans and into Egypt. Egypt just had a revolution. Sudan is trying to avoid a descent into war. Uganda may be the region’s best chance for long-term peace and prosperity. Let’s hope she takes it.

Image: J. J. Messner