January 19, 2011
By Kenneth C. Brill
The Fund for Peace Commentary

It is fair to say that developments in Tunisia over the last week surprised virtually all observers and we at The Fund for Peace count ourselves among those who would not have predicted the timing of the middle class revolt against the Tunisian regime. Nonetheless, Tunisia’s ranking of 122 (out of 177 states reviewed), which put it in the “warning zone,” in The Fund for Peace’s Failed States Index was based on the very factors that produced the “surprising” events of last weekend.

Tunisia’s scores on several key indicators used to produce the Failed States Index indicated problems for the regime. For example, Tunisia’s scores for uneven development and human rights problems have been consistently high (i.e., above seven on a scale of ten) for the last several years. While not quite as severe, its scores for the legitimacy of state institutions in general and the security apparatus in particular were above six. The score for the rise of factionalized elites was right at six.

Taken together, these scores on indicators of state performance of key functions and acceptance by those governed indicated the Tunisian regime had significant issues that were contributing to the fragility of the state. As a result, Tunisia was put in the Failed States Index’s warning category, where it has been since the Failed States Index began in 2005.

Thus, the surprise is about when events in Tunisia came to a head for the regime, not that the regime had problems and was fragile.