February 11, 2011
By Heidi Ann Davis
The Fund for Peace Commentary

As the Egyptian government of Hosni Mubarak falls, it is remarkable that the outpouring of popular anger on the streets of Cairo that led to his ouster actually began 2,109 km away in Tunisia.

On 28 December 2010, a 26-year-old sat down in front of the municipal building in Sidi Bouzid, Tunisia, doused himself with a liter and half of gasoline and lit himself on fire. Five years from now, it is doubtful that people will remember the name of Mohamed Bouazizi, but they will remember he started a revolution, not only in his own country, but in Egypt as well. The story of a desperate college graduate committing suicide in such a public and particularly gruesome manner for losing his vegetable cart is now one for the history books.

It is not the first time that the act of one person changed the course of a country, nor will it be the last. Public outrage over Mohamed Bouazizi’s death galvanized the youth of Tunisia into action, staging massive protests over the rate of unemployment, the cost of food, and the oppressive 23-year regime of then President Ben Ali. The 24-hour news channels snapped to attention and the world pulled out the atlas to find Tunisia on the map. Less than a month later, it was all over. Ben Ali appeared on national television and told the world he was stepping down. To the casual observer, it would seem that Tunisia’s demand for a change in leadership came from nowhere.

It didn’t.

Since its creation in 2005, The Failed States Index has listed Tunisia as a country on the brink of crisis. It consistently scored poorly in the categories of uneven development, violation of human rights and the rule of law, the legitimacy of state institutions, the role of its security apparatus, and social cohesion. Taken together, Tunisia’s scores in this year’s Failed States Index reflected a state that was experiencing problems with a government that was losing legitimacy in the eyes of the people. With that combination of pressures, tensions are inevitable and upheaval becomes increasingly likely—even if its exact timing remains unpredictable.

The success that the people of Tunisia had in peacefully bringing down a dictator inspired youth all over North Africa and the Middle East to do the same. Protests broke out in Algeria, Jordan, Sudan, Yemen, and, as we have all seen for 24-hours a day over the last 3 weeks, Egypt. All countries listed as either warning or alert states in the Failed States Index.

Egypt’s revolution took a little longer as President Mubarak, despite thousands of protesters maintaining a constant and active presence in Cairo’s Tahrir Square, stubbornly clung to power over a country that was clearly tired of his rule. Unfortunately, Egypt’s path to regime change was not without bloodshed. As the protests continued day after day, reports came of police violence, the arrests of reporters and activists, and the restriction of media access to the public. Again, the world scratched its head in confusion. Wasn’t this the world’s oldest civilization? We think of Egypt as the land of pyramids and the birth of the written language. How did this happen?

Like in the case of Tunisia, the Failed States Index has consistently demonstrated that Egypt experienced severe pressures under several key indicators, including the uneven distribution of wealth, the legitimacy or state institutions, the performance of the security apparatus, and violation of human rights and the rule of law. The country regularly scored poorly in terms of demographic pressures and group grievances, and social cohesion. Egypt has been listed year after year on the Failed States Index in the “warning” category, having consistently found itself on the brink of being designated the more serious “alert” status. Though, this is due in no small part to that fact that the performance of many of Egypt’s peers was often so bad that it gave the illusion that Egypt was less fragile because it “ranked” better than many others. Indeed, under some specific indicators, such as massive movement of refugees or internally displace people, even Haiti scored better than Egypt.

The combination of pressures revealed in the FSI for Egypt was a clear sign of the troubles ahead. Today’s welcomed resignation of Mubarak, will lead to tomorrow’s experts trying to predict the next Egypt or Tunisia. Who will be next? How many dominos will topple over? How many places on the map will suddenly come into view to dominate the next news cycle? The question we should be asking is not, “which country will jump onto the world stage next?” The real question is, how many warning signs have we been ignoring for too long?