February 25, 2011
By Kenneth C. Brill
The Fund for Peace Commentary

In June 2010, Mohammed ElBaradei told a meeting of Egyptian reformers and lawyers that Egypt’s negative ranking (in the lowest quartile) in The Fund for Peace’s “Failed States Index” was a “disaster” that demanded the urgent attention of the Egyptian people. With President Mubarak’s departure, those involved in the ongoing transition process in Cairo and, indeed, all the Egyptian people now have a chance to provide that urgent attention.

In the wake of the Tahrir Square demonstrations, many promises have been made, principally to address the democratization and human rights demands of the demonstrators and the public more broadly. This is a good start. However, a careful look at the reasons Egypt ranked so poorly on the “Failed States Index” suggests there are other important areas that must be addressed if Egypt is to move from failing to successful state status.

Many of Egypt’s most important challenges relate to the economy and the delivery of public services. Official corruption has long been pervasive, affecting individuals and the economy as a whole. Corruption skewed economic decision making and contributed to uneven economic development. This uneven development is especially reflected in hunger and malnourishment, which are more widespread in Egypt than is commonly known, and youth unemployment, including among those who are educated. There are related problems with infrastructure, water and sanitation, particularly in rural areas and among the urban poor.

The Mubarak government lost its way and its legitimacy not just by trampling on human rights, but also by allowing corruption and economic policies that favored some, but left many Egyptians at a disadvantage.

Whoever is elected to follow Mubarak will need to pursue policies that support economic growth and ensure the benefits of that growth are widely shared and felt. Tackling corruption will be particularly important in this regard. If not addressed successfully, corruption will have a corrosive effect on Egypt’s economic life and eventually undermine any progress made on the human rights front – as well as on the legitimacy of any post-Mubarak government.

Overthrowing Mubarak with a leaderless revolution was difficult, but the really hard work is just beginning. The Tahrir Square revolution will be a success if it ushers in an era of improved human rights and economic growth that broadly benefits all Egyptians. Major improvements of this sort will not happen overnight. But early steps in the right direction will begin to turn things around, addressing the “disaster” Dr. ElBaradei identified last year and significantly improving Egypt’s ranking in the 2012 “Failed States Index.”