May 3, 2011
By Kenneth C. Brill and Nate Haken
The Fund for Peace Commentary

Compared to past Nigerian elections, this one was relatively free and fair. Now the hard work begins for President Goodluck Jonathan. In the North, post election violence has killed over 100 people and displaced thousands. But the real worry, in many ways, is the situation in the South. Indeed, whether Nigeria slides inexorably towards state failure or joins the world’s emerging powers will be determined in the Niger Delta, the heart of the nation’s oil economy. Nigeria’s oil exports matter to Nigeria—they account for more than 80% of government revenue. Nigeria, as an oil producer matters to the world—it is the fourth largest exporter worldwide. The absence of sustainable development and security in the Niger Delta could impact the price of gas at the pump and the pace of the global economic recovery.

President Jonathan comes from the Niger Delta Region. In the run-up to the election, that region of the country was growing increasingly restive, with attacks by militants and criminal elements, as well as political violence and crackdowns by the security forces and vigilante groups. It is possible that these problems will abate, now that the election is past. It is also possible that high expectations for change will be disappointed, leading to another round of escalation. What is needed now is a redoubling of coordinated efforts and patience for those efforts to take effect.

Over the last year, The Fund for Peace has been working in the Niger Delta with local organizations to assess the social, economic and political pressures that undermine sustainable security. It is clear from our work that people in the region are increasingly dissatisfied with its underdevelopment, criminality, corruption, poverty, and communal tensions – and with the many failed efforts to address these problems. They hope that Goodluck Jonathan will take new initiatives to address their problems. But if they do not see progress, we expect the region will experience increasing lawlessness and decreasing oil exports – the trump card the region’s militants know they hold. If the militants play this trump card, the U.S. will see an increase in gas prices.

Addressing these complex problems will require integrated efforts to tackle infrastructure, security, economy, and governance problems. Without security there will be no economic growth. Without development there will be no security. Without good governance, roads needed for development won’t be built. Without security, anti-corruption efforts can be destabilizing. Dealing with one issue separate from the others is a recipe for failure.

One example of an initiative to address the security situation that has been disappointing due to its lack of integration is the much touted Amnesty Program. In 2009, the government announced that militants who lay down their guns and came out of the bush would be granted amnesty from prosecution, given jobs training, and an allowance. This program bought some time. This time was not well spent. Implementation of the program was hampered by issues of eligibility and undermined by corruption that diverted funds intended for the amnesty program.

The bottom line is that if the economy is not producing jobs, the jobs training becomes a formality ex-militants undergo in order to collect their allowance. Eventually the allowances will stop and the ex-militants will go back to the bush, which some have begun to do.

If this situation is allowed to drift, Nigeria will pay with increased violence and we will pay at the gas pump. The U.S. and the international community must partner with and press the Nigerian government to deal with all facets of the Niger Delta’s problems: improve the implementation of the amnesty program; increase investment in infrastructure and public services; and professionalize the security forces, holding them accountable for human rights violations. Civil society should be more proactive about bringing cases of corruption to the courts. It will take the combined efforts of many actors with conflicting interests and good reason to distrust each other to address the political, security, and development issues facing the Niger Delta and Nigeria as a whole. It will take hard work and commitment to make the Niger Delta a better place to live and a stronger foundation for Nigerian prosperity – and a more reliable source of oil. It will take more than good luck to succeed.

Ken Brill is the President of the Fund for Peace and was twice a U.S. ambassador. Nate Haken is a Senior Associate of the Fund for Peace who has worked in a variety of African countries.