Published November 30, 2011 | By Annie Janus and Raphaël Jaeger

Despite several notable improvements, many deep-seated issues continue to threaten Nigeria’s stability. Significant efforts to prevent fraud in the 2011 election nevertheless failed to prevent the eruption of post-election violence, which also plagued the 2003 and 2007 elections. Moreover, the 2011 elections exacerbated north-south religious and ethnic tensions, leaving the state vulnerable to further internal conflict. Inadequate healthcare, uneven distribution of wealth, and corruption also continue to undermine state capacity. President Goodluck Jonathan has promulgated his anti-corruption commitment, but the pervasiveness of corruption in Nigeria will make this a difficult task. Since most inter-communal conflicts are rooted in struggles for food, jobs, and land, economic reforms will be needed to mitigate these sources of instability.

Published November 30, 2011 | By Annie Janus and Tierney Anderson

Niger has faced severe drought and famine on multiple occasions, notably in 1974, 1995, 2005 and 2010. In the past such events often coincided with political upheaval, and 2010 was no different. After extending his term past constitutional limits, the then-president was overthrown in a military coup in February 2010. Although progress remains highly tenuous, there have been some positive signs: The military committee immediately acknowledged the ongoing famine, utilized food stores and embraced international aid and assistance. A new constitution was approved and internationally supervised free and fair elections were held in March of 2011. Despite democratic progress, northern Niger remains locked in a low level insurgency, whose local tribesman are affiliated with Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.

Published November 14, 2011 | By Annie Janus and Raphaël Jaeger

Yemen’s performance has worsened for the 5th consecutive year. The situation has especially worsened recently, as the country has experienced significant turmoil since January 2011, when anti-government protestors began. Despite a violent response from the government, the protests have not abated. The situation has further deteriorated with divisions among tribal leaders in their support of President Saleh, resulting in clashes between the opposition and Saleh’s supporters. On 21 October 2011, the UN Security Council Resolution 2014 urged President Saleh to step down after human rights violations and the excessive use of force by the authorities against protesters supported by sections of the army. President Saleh has promised to step down, but has yet to do so. The instability is giving greater opportunity for human traffickers and smugglers while 400,000 refugees and IDPs are reported in Yemen. The country is also facing external intervention pressures, as the United States has recently intensified its covert war against the Yemen-based al Qaeda branch. Even when this period of turmoil calms, Yemen will still require long-term socio-political reforms and reconciliation efforts.

Published November 12, 2011 | By Annie Janus

Côte d’Ivoire has experienced significant destabilization as a result of the post-election crisis during 2010. Incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo’s refusal to cede power rekindled the country’s long-standing political, religious, and ethnic tensions. After approximately five months of fighting, Gbagbo agreed to transfer power to the internationally recognized president-elect, Alassane Ouattara. The political crisis has caused the country to return to a worsening trend after having improved in 2009 and 2010. With weakening governance and inflamed social tensions, the crisis has left the country vulnerable to a resurgence of violence. Concentrated efforts to improve governance, strengthen institutions, and invoke reconciliation processes will be needed to remediate the fragile condition of Côte d’Ivoire.

Published August 19, 2011 | By Annie Janus

The world is facing its second food crisis in three years. In 2008, soaring food prices led to widespread famine, political instability, and violent riots from Bangladesh to Egypt. Recently, food prices have resurged, placing pressure on many countries as they reached record highs earlier this year.

The sharp increase in food prices presents many far-reaching threats. In addition to humanitarian concerns, hunger is an instant source of instability. Due to the intense pressure spiked food prices have placed on many countries, food riots have recently erupted Algeria, Jordan, and Tunisia. Unless the situation improves, the international community is at risk of the widespread protests, land grabbing, and political upheavals that plagued the 2007-08 food crisis.

Published September 1, 2011 | By Annie Janus and Kendall Lawrence

Al Shabaab, a hard-line militia group, controls most of southern Somalia and, until recently, a large swath of Mogadishu. Though the exact origins of al-Shabaab are unknown, most scholars believe that the group started as a military faction of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), which took over Mogadishu and large parts of the south after intense factionalized fighting in 2006. Al-Shabaab has waged an insurgency against Somalia's transitional federal government (TFG) and its Ethiopian supporters over the past five years. The full name of the group is Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (HSM) meaning ‘Movement of Striving Youth.’ The fighters are a mix of local and foreign youth, attracted to the group by its claims to be the defenders of Somali dignity from outside invaders while it also calls for a broader global jihad.

Publication CR-11-18-UL
Published June 22, 2011
By Nate Haken, Annie Janus

Nigeria’s national and state elections, held in April of this year were rightly praised as the freest and fairest of Nigeria’s history. But that success was not necessarily tangible to everyone on the ground. As reported by local civil society organizations in the UNLocK early warning network, there were significant problems before, during, and after the elections, including ballot box snatching, vote buying, and a lot of political violence. These ongoing problems need to be recognized and addressed for this successful election to be consolidated as a turning point for democracy in Nigeria.

Published June 20, 2011
Publication CR-11-14-FS
Report available in PDF and Flash formats

The Failed States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Failed States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

June 20, 2011
By Kristen Blandford, Annie Janus and Kendall Lawrence
The Failed States Index

1. Somalia

On this year’s Failed States Index, Somalia scored as the worst offender for Refugees and IDPs, Economic Decline, Human rights and Security Apparatus. The absence of a permanent national government for almost twenty years has led to ongoing civil violence, economic hardship, poor social conditions, and the displacement of several million Somali citizens. It has become increasingly difficult for international agencies to provide aid to Somalia in light of the recent troubles with piracy and hostility towards foreigners. An upsurge of civil violence in the southern part of the nation has created further destabilization and threatens any potential improvements to Somalia’s condition.

June 20, 2011
By Annie Janus
The Failed States Index

With much of the world’s attention turned to the Arab Spring, Kyrgyzstan’s 2010 revolution seems to have been forgotten. Nevertheless, Kyrgyzstan’s politically tumultuous year has seen it worsen significantly in the Failed States Index, moving from 45th position to a more serious 31st, and into the Alert category.

Kyrgyzstan’s worsening in this year’s index reflects dramatic reversals in several scores that tend to indicate the state’s susceptibility to internal conflict, and as such, these worsening scores are largely are result of the 2010 revolutions.