Published September 20, 2012 | By Amelia Whitehead and Filipa Carreira

Since the violence of 2010, Kyrgyzstan has made significant strides towards reestablishing stability within its borders. In October 2010, the country held its first free and fair parliamentary elections, resulting in the formation of a coalition government. However, the current peace remains fragile. Ethnic tensions, exacerbated by the recent violence, continue to fester. Osh constitutes to be a key transit point in the Central Asian drug trade, linking heroin producers in Afghanistan to buyers across Europe. Religious freedoms have been sharply curtailed, due in part to concerns over radical Islamist groups. Kyrgyzstan was the most-improved nation in the 2012 Failed States Index.

Published August 22, 2012 | By Amelia Whitehead

The Central African Republic faces a number of obstacles to its development. Fighting between the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) and government forces continues, causing the number of displaced persons in the region to swell. The United States and the European Union have increasingly recognized the threat posed by the LRA to central African stability, and in December 2011 agreed to provide the Bozize government with additional assistance in combating the rebels. The signing of peace accords with various rebel groups in 2011 significantly decreased the level of violence in the country; however, the country’s growth rates continue to lag due to the lack of basic infrastructure.

Published August 8, 2012 | By Amelia Whitehead

Since 2011, Chad’s political and economic situation has progressed significantly. The improvement in Chadian-Sudanese relations has led to a fall in the number of refugees and internally displaced persons, as fighting in the Darfur region has decreased in conjunction with the cessation of Chadian funding for the various rebel groups operating in the area. However, though oil extraction has granted the government more than US$754 billion in additional revenues, investment in poverty-alleviation projects remains low. Rising militancy and instability in nearby countries such as Nigeria and Mali could also spill over into Chad, threatening its current relative stability.

Published July 20, 2012 | By Natalie Shemwell and Amelia Whitehead

Comprised of over 7,000 islands, the Philippines is home to a diverse population speaking more than 87 different languages. The archipelago, first claimed by the Spanish in 1542, has since experienced numerous internal and external threats to its stability. The 1898 Treaty of Paris, which marked the end of the Spanish-American War, granted the United States control over the Philippines; however, American forces subsequently faced an armed insurgency aimed at resisting U.S. military rule. Endemic corruption, periodic shifts towards authoritarianism, and widespread poverty have plagued the country since it gained its independence in 1946.
 
Terrorism emanating from a small number of islands in the south of the country continues to constitute a significant security risk. Despite the government’s attempts at eliminating the problem, groups such as Jemaah Islamiyah and Abu Sayyaf continue to operate from isolated islands. A cease-fire between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) was signed in 2008; however, in October 2011, government forces carried out air strikes in MILF-controlled territories in response to a surge in violence in the region. President Benigno Aquino III’s ascendancy to the presidency in June 2010 has marked the transition to a period of relative political stability.

Published June 18, 2012 | By J. Messner, N. Haken, K. Hendry, P. Taft, K. Lawrence, T. Anderson, R. Jaeger, N. Manning, F. Umaña, A. Whitehead

The Failed States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Failed States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

Published June 18, 2012 | By T. Anderson, R. Jaeger, F. Umaña, N. Manning, A. Whitehead.

1. Somalia As the situation in Somalia continued to deteriorate in 2011, the country remains at the top of the Failed States Index for the fifth year in succession. Ten out of twelve of Somalia’s indicators scores were above 9.0 on a scale of 10. Indeed, the Refugees and IDPs as well as the Security Apparatus indicator scores remain at the highest possible level of 10.0. The absence of a permanent national government for twenty years was aggravated in 2011 by an upsurge of violence, massive human rights abuses and natural disasters. Worsened social conditions have added to political instability which led to mass displacement and impoverishment. Somalia also continues to be a relentless headache for international shipping, with the unrelenting activities of Somali pirates deep into the Indian Ocean. Despite attempts by external actors such as the African Union and neighboring Kenya to intervene in the conflict, terrorist activity by al-Shabaab and general unabating lawlessness has hampered such efforts.
—Raphaël Jaeger