Published October 12, 2012 | By Erin Crandell

Turkey has managed to weather both the economic crisis in neighboring Europe and the political instability coming from the Middle East. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development (A.K.) Party swept the parliamentary elections in June 2011 and have continued to loosen the secularism of Atatürk’s Republic. The Erdogan government has also begun to move towards a stronger diplomatic presence in Middle Eastern affairs which has seen some diplomatic clashes and a more strained relations with Israel and a rapidly escalating conflict with neighboring Syria. Turkey has taken a strong stance against the Assad regime of Syria, providing safe haven to Syrian refugees and increasing engaging in heated rhetoric with its neighbor, as well as beefing up its military presence on the border.

Published September 30, 2012 | By Erin Crandell and Filipa Carreira

Like many ex-Soviet bloc states, Armenia’s development has been crippled by endemic and systemic corruption. Organized crime, linked to human trafficking, drug trafficking and smuggling of weapons materials, continues. The country’s poor record of State Legitimacy dates back to 2008 when President Serge Sargsian, invoking a state of emergency, used brutal force to quell post election violence. Human Rights violations on the part of the state and security forces continue today. The ripple effect of the European Union’s economic crisis aggravated the national economy and provoked a decline in foreign investment and remittances.

Published July 20, 2012 | By Erin Crandell

The Ba’ath Party has dominated Syrian politics since its ascent to power in 1968. President Bashar al-Assad, who succeeded his father in 2000, has consolidated political and military power in the hands of the Alawite minority. Ethnic tensions between the ruling Alawites and the country’s Sunni majority have existed for generations, manifesting themselves in the 1989 Hama massacre. Syria was swept up in the Arab Spring beginning in late January, when activists began holding widespread protests against the ruling Ba’ath Party. In response to the protests, Assad briefly attempted to institute reforms similar to those attempted in the early 2000s; however, after decades of emergency rule and one-party politics, the reforms were seen as inadequate. April 2011 marked the beginning of what has been over a year of bloodshed perpetrated by government forces against the opposition movement.

Syria skyrocketed up the Failed States Index from 48th place in 2011 to 23rd in 2012, the fourth-largest year-on-year worsening in the history of the Index. As the overall situation deteriorates the country is likely to continue rising. In total, nine of the twelve indicators worsened significantly. Civilian protestors and army defectors fighting under the banner of the “Free Syria Army” have engaged the government in clashes nationwide, leading to a high number of civilian casualties. Extreme human rights abuses committed by both sides have caused a stream of refugees to flee into neighboring countries, further destabilizing the region.

Published January 11, 2012 | By Joelle Burbank, Nate Haken, Erin Crandell, Julie Andrus

Incumbent president and recent Nobel laureate Ellen Johnson Sirleaf was declared the winner of the runoff election held on November 8th, 2011. After asserting that the October 8th election was not as fair as the United Nations and other international bodies declared it to be, opposition leader Winston Tubman and his supporters boycotted the run-off election, resulting in a turnout that was only about 37% of the voting age population, and almost half of the turnout in the October 8th election.

This is the second election held in Liberia after years of civil war, and this is the first to be overseen by an independent Liberian election board. While international observers declared the election to be free and fair, there were multiple reports gathered during the June to November period of intimidation of political opponents, election irregularities and government corruption. In this atmosphere, the boycott further undermines the perceived legitimacy of the government in the eyes of the local population.

Published October 28, 2011 | By Nate Haken, Tierney Anderson, Julie Andrus, Erin Crandell

Nigeria’s election in April 2011 represented a huge step forward with respect to democratization. However, there was significant resistance on the part of vested interests, which led to an escalation of many conflict risk factors at the local and national levels in the subsequent five months. Nigerian stakeholders in government, civil society, and private sectors must not rest on their laurels after this relatively successful election. Doing so would risk losing all that has been gained.

This report compiles the incidents and issues documented by civil society representatives in the UNLocK Nigeria early warning network from April -September 2011, with a particular focus on the state and local government area levels of Akwa Ibom, Rivers, Bayelsa, and Kaduna. There is a two month period of overlap between this report and the last, which covered December 2010-May 2011. The reason for this overlap is that UNLocK participants met in September for a workshop, adding considerably to the data compiled on events in April and May. Rather than archive that newly collected data, we wanted to include it in this report for a fuller picture of the landscape as perceived by the early warning network.

Published October 4, 2011
By Nate Haken, Tierney Anderson, Julie Andrus, Erin Crandell
Publication CUUGR1125
Report available in PDF and Flash formats

In February, Ugandans reelected President Museveni to a fifth term in office by a landslide. A few weeks after the election, massive protests over the government’s management of the economy broke out in cities across the country and sometimes turned violent. Since then, the protests have subsided, but food prices remain high and segments of the population still feel politically disenfranchised. This context poses a challenge to continued progress for democracy and human rights in Uganda.

This report is a summary of incidents and issues from May to August 2011, with a special focus on pastoral conflict in Karamoja and land conflict in Acholi, as reported by a network of local civil society representatives who have been using FFP’s Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST) since 2008. The project engages local civil society for better conflict assessment, early warning, and prevention.