Published February 15, 2012 | By Ed Nagle

Not long after the dawn of the nuclear age, few experts were optimistic that the spread of nuclear weapons could be contained. In 1963 it was anticipated that fifteen to twenty nations would likely come to possess nuclear weapons, let alone nuclear power, by the 1970s.1 It is easy to lose sight of this in contemporary discussions on nuclear proliferation. Yet at present we are faced with renewed pressure from state and non-state actors who desire to acquire nuclear arms. The apparent success of North Korea and potential success of Iran have created new regional pressures that have the potential to greatly increase the number of nuclear weapons states to a point not unlike President John F. Kennedy’s grim prediction in 1963. The years since the end of the Cold War have seen not only a transformation of the security environment, but also an evolution in the means and motives for procuring nuclear arms.

Published December 24, 2011 | By Ed Nagle

Despite improvements in recent years, political and social stability remain tentative at best in Sri Lanka. Much of northern and eastern Sri Lanka has been devastated as a result of a civil war spanning nearly three decades (1983-2011). The final year of the civil war saw hundreds of thousands of Tamil refugees internally displaced. 2011 has revealed many positive indicators for future resettlement, with one of the largest refugee camp population dropping from over 200,000 to less than 35,000. Overall economic growth has been substantial in recent years despite the global recession but economic development remains uneven. Social tensions and the potential for further violence remain high as a renewed political process unfolds.

Published November 30, 2011 | By Ed Nagle and Raphaël Jaeger

While Kenya has made positive strides towards political stability and corruption reduction, both issues continue to be threats to its nascent democracy. Single party rule from 1963 to 2002 has only recently been replaced by a multi-party system and broad-based coalitions. Following inter-tribal political violence in the wake of the 2007 national elections, Kenya successfully passed a new constitution in 2010. Its passage marks a tremendous opportunity for Kenya. In particular, it is targeted at reducing the control of the provincial governments and shifting that authority to individual counties in the hopes of reducing corruption. Adding a second chamber to parliament and a bill of rights are also very positive steps but political affiliations and voting patterns remain strongly tied to tribal identities.

Published November 23, 2011 | By Tierney Anderson and Ed Nagle

Corruption and inequality is rampant throughout Guinea. Despite having at least 25% of the world’s known bauxite reserves (aluminum ore), substantial high quality iron ore, gold and uranium, Guinea remains one of the poorest, least developed countries in the world. After over 50 years of repression and dictatorship, Guinea held its first widely recognized free presidential elections in late 2010, which were absent of major violence. However, there are continuing political and ethnic tensions over the upcoming December legislative elections. Infrastructure and government institutions have historically been, and currently remain, woefully underdeveloped and are a major challenge for the new administration. The newly elected president, Alpha Condé, has taken steps to reform the mining code (Guinea’s major source of revenue) to prevent and punish corruption and reform the security sector. President Condé has also promised to rebuild Guinea’s transportation infrastructure and improve access to electricity and potable water.

Published November 12, 2011 | By Ed Nagle

Despite the power-sharing agreement between ZANU-PF and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), Zimbabwe remains a highly unstable country, suffering from government repression, rigged elections, and poor economic performance. The power-sharing agreement has been undermined by arrests and intimidation of opposition leaders. The failure to fully implement the power-sharing agreement, and satisfactorily devolving power to Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai and the MDC, severely undermines the government’s credibility. ZANU-PF also continues to use the state security apparatus as a political tool to harass opposition voices. The creation of a friendlier business environment, capable of luring émigrés home and attracting foreign investment will be necessary to help improve the economy.

Published October 14, 2011 | By Ryan Costello and Ed Nagle

Revelations from the 2004 exposure of the A. Q. Khan network have highlighted the importance of this region in global nonproliferation efforts. While terrorism is by no means constrained to the Afghanistan/Pakistan border, the confluence of intent, knowledge and materials is found in this region. It remains uncertain if all nodes of the Khan network have been identified. Other leading Pakistani scient ist s have demonstrated a willingness to share nuclear knowledge if not material capabilities. The diversity of suppliers in quantity, location and specialty has made confirmation tentative at best. Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program is extensive and ongoing. The infrastructure that enabled Khan’s prolonged success remains in place. In addition, the intentions of individual members of Pakistan’s intelligence and military leadership have been called into question as a result of revelations regarding Bin Laden’s death.