Published December 10, 2012 | By Nate Haken, Filipa Carreira, Elizaveta Egorova, Rachel Hersh

Not every explosion in northern Nigeria stems from the radicalism of Boko Haram. Nor is every outbreak of violence in the Niger Delta the result of militants fighting over oil revenues. Rather, violence in its different forms is an expression of a broader and deeper fabric of social, economic, political, and security challenges. Given the wrong set of underlying conditions, collective violence can spark seemingly out of nowhere, whether or not there is a formal paramilitary group active in the region. Even when such organizations do not exist, in an area with past and current episodes of insecurity, latent structures may still be there, to be crystallized at a moments notice--in the event of a political contest, land dispute, turf warfare, or chieftaincy tussle.  Violence can sometimes be self-organizing.  Just add water.

The government’s amnesty program in the Niger Delta has been partially successful. Attacks by militants on oil facilities and state assets have been much reduced. However, since 2009, organized insurgency in the Niger Delta has morphed into a situation of general lawlessness — abductions, murders, gang violence, intra-communal violence, land disputes, mob justice, and political thuggery. Meanwhile, in the North, ethnic and sectarian violence has polarized communities causing some to migrate into religious enclaves out of fear. During the period of May-October 2012, there were bombings in Kaduna and large scale communal violence in Plateau. In addition to the shifting patterns of violence in the North and the South, there were also devastating floods — Nigeria’s worst in 40 years — which further exacerbated pressure on the state’s ability to manage conflict risk.

Published October 9, 2012 | By Elizaveta Egorova and Filipa Carreira

Azerbaijan significantly improved its overall score in 2012, improving by 2.2 points and moving from 68th to 63rd on the Failed States Index. Azerbaijan has made some recent gains in social-economic policies, and military capacity. Despite significant gains in other areas, the unresolved conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh will continue to handicap further development.

Published September 30, 2012 | By Erin Crandell and Filipa Carreira

Like many ex-Soviet bloc states, Armenia’s development has been crippled by endemic and systemic corruption. Organized crime, linked to human trafficking, drug trafficking and smuggling of weapons materials, continues. The country’s poor record of State Legitimacy dates back to 2008 when President Serge Sargsian, invoking a state of emergency, used brutal force to quell post election violence. Human Rights violations on the part of the state and security forces continue today. The ripple effect of the European Union’s economic crisis aggravated the national economy and provoked a decline in foreign investment and remittances.

Published September 20, 2012 | By Amelia Whitehead and Filipa Carreira

Since the violence of 2010, Kyrgyzstan has made significant strides towards reestablishing stability within its borders. In October 2010, the country held its first free and fair parliamentary elections, resulting in the formation of a coalition government. However, the current peace remains fragile. Ethnic tensions, exacerbated by the recent violence, continue to fester. Osh constitutes to be a key transit point in the Central Asian drug trade, linking heroin producers in Afghanistan to buyers across Europe. Religious freedoms have been sharply curtailed, due in part to concerns over radical Islamist groups. Kyrgyzstan was the most-improved nation in the 2012 Failed States Index.