Published October 9, 2012 | By Elizaveta Egorova and Felipe Umaña

Recently, Georgia has demonstrated significant socio-economic and political gains. After a severe economic crisis and the war with Russia in 2008, Georgia has moved towards ample recovery and has shown signs of stability. The country’s foreign policy relations and the overall political image internationally have also improved. Relations with the U.S. (particularly through NATO) and the European Union have likewise grown as the government under Mikheil Saakashvili has increased diplomacy with the West. However, the somewhat unexpected 2012 victory of Bidzina Ivanishvili’s Georgia Dream party in legislative elections may lead to increased political divisions ahead.

Published August 22, 2012 | By Felipe Umaña

An important transition began in 2011 when the Iraqi government took greater control of the country following the withdrawal of the coalition forces. However, the continuation of sectarian violence has slowed any substantial reform, and preexisting prejudices instill distrust amongst several ethnic groups. Furthermore, the damaged oil infrastructure and continued disputes over the administration of oil fields between Baghdad and the Kurdish authorities are obstacles to the increase of oil revenues. The almost decade-long war has stymied virtually all forms of development. Other challenges include widespread corruption, low foreign investment, and a severely damaged transportation infrastructure.

Published August 23, 2012 | By Felipe Umaña

The Straits of Malacca consist of a narrow but lengthy waterway that extends more than 500 miles from the eastern limits of the Andaman Sea to the South China Sea in Southeast Asia. Straddling the sea route between the Indonesian island of Sumatra, the Thai-Malay Peninsula, and the small city-state of Singapore, the Straits of Malacca are known globally for their economic, political, environmental, and strategic importance. The Straits themselves link the Indian Ocean to some of Asia’s most powerful economies, as well as many other trade-influential countries, like the United States, Germany, and Russia.

More than 60,000 vessels traverse the critical chokepoint per year, carrying more than a third of global trade. Due to the amount of traffic, the region is also home to some of the busiest ports in the world, particularly in Singapore. The Straits attract foreign investment with the amount of commerce and trade it supports. The Straits are also the focal point of legal and political issues, such as the sovereignty of territorial waters and the responsibility to secure the waterway. Likewise, the waterway is a source of environmental concern for the littoral countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. The maintenance of the environment is important to all three states in order to not deter tourism or development projects in the area, both of which can in turn influence the economic and political sectors directly. Finally, the Straits are crucial for worldwide communication and resource exchange, making them internationally significant.

Published August 8, 2012 | By Felipe Umaña

Sudan has been characterized by war and instability for over two decades and has twice been ranked at the top of the Failed States Index, in 2006 and 2007. Despite being very resource-rich, Sudan has experienced significant internal security challenges under the leadership of Omar al-Bashir, who himself became the first sitting leader of a country to be indicted by the International Criminal Court.

The outcome of a 2011 independence referendum split the former Sudan into two countries, creating the new nation of South Sudan after years of internal disagreements. Even after the secession of South Sudan, hostilities remain between both countries, with a return to violence a constant threat. The situation with South Sudan continues to add pressure to both countries, specifically in terms of a growing refugee population, weak and unpredictable economies, and inadequate and damaged infrastructure. This is compounded by ongoing conflict in the Darfur region of the country, where human rights abuses are endemic. Sudan’s economic situation will likely worsen given that most of its former oil fields now lie on the South Sudanese side of the border. Despite a slight improving trend from 2007 to 2011, Sudan’s myriad problems will continue to heavily overshadow any improvements.

Published July 20, 2012 | By Felipe Umaña

After decades of kleptocracy under the rule of despot Mobutu Sese Seko, Zaïre (now the Democratic Republic of Congo) descended into conflict when invading forces in the east, led by Laurent Kabila and backed by Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda, overthrew Mobutu. The conflict nevertheless has continued largely unabated, dragging in most of the country’s neighbors in a conflict of changing alliances. Kabila was assassinated in 2001 and was succeeded by his son Joseph, who immediately called for multilateral peace talks to end the conflict. Despite the signing of peace accords in 2003, fighting continues in the east of the country where the prevalence of rape and displacement remains a serious concern. The country’s first multi-party elections since independence in 1960 saw Joseph Kabila officially win with 70% of the vote despite reports of irregularities.

Incumbent President Kabila won re-election at the November 2011 general polls. Although international observers contested the results, Kabila was sworn in the month after. The fragility of the state government led to instability and to a lack of capacity in the second-largest country in Africa, where poverty remains widespread in spite of immense economic resources. In the eastern provinces, human rights abuses by the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) were reported. The country is also still host to the largest UN peacekeeping mission in the world, MONUSCO, with over 19,000 uniformed peacekeepers.

Published July 20, 2012 | By Felipe Umaña

Afghanistan has been continuously ravaged by war since the 1980s, after a Soviet-led invasion left the country severely impoverished and bereft of a legitimate government. The vacuum that existed after the Soviet withdrawal saw warring tribes and the Taliban vying for control over the country. Since then, Afghanistan has seen little development as the central government has focused its energies on combating its enemies. Poverty-stricken and without adequate access to healthcare, Afghanis have, for the most part, abandoned hope in the government’s efforts to reform the nation. Traditional tribal politics have superseded the central government’s initiatives.

Many anti-Taliban forces in Afghanistan are anticipating the 2014 NATO withdrawal, merging efforts to ensure a united coalition against powerful pressure groups like the Taliban. As one of the world’s poorest states, Afghanistan also faces a very low level of security and stability, which are a detriment to all facets of society. Afghanistan faces a myriad of economic, political, and social challenges that it needs to address before the country can begin to see positive growth and development. A growing drug trade and widespread violence belittle the country’s frail legal system and continue to put pressure on government authority.

Published July 20, 2012 | By Felipe Umaña

Although Malaysia is comprised of a diverse group of ethnicities and regional identities, its political system has remained relatively stable since its independence. The predominance of a single political party was reversed in 2004 with the opposition successfully stripping the National Front Coalition of its two thirds majority (leaving it with a current simple majority). While a constitutional monarchy, the federal nature of the legislative system allows significant authorities to be delegated to local states although revenue collection and other key responsibilities remain under the control of the central government.

The country has seen a lot of economic growth over the last decade and has a growing semiconductor industry. Refugee and immigration issues, as well as rising illicit drug use, remain important policy issues in 2012.

Published July 19, 2012 | By Felipe Umaña

Before the 2011 revolution and civil war, Libya was a beacon of success on the African continent, albeit a paradoxical one. In 2009, for instance, Libya boasted the highest human development index score in Africa, and was also amongst the five best performers in terms of GDP per capita. And yet, the country’s eastern region saw — and continues to see — little economic development. The rule of law and the state’s legitimacy declined markedly during dictator Muammar Gaddafi’s near 42-year rule, while Gaddafi’s unorthodox and frequently bizarre antics won the country international pariah status for many years, in part due to the regime’s links to global terrorism.

The 2011 violence left Libya with much to rebuild, in terms of both physical infrastructure and the social, economic, and political fabric of the nation. Numerous buildings and roads, as well as key oil facilities, sustained heavy damage as a result of the struggle between pro-Gaddafi forces and the National Transitional Council (NTC) rebels.

The 16.2 point worsening between 2011-2012 was the largest year-on-year change for a country in the 8-year history of the Failed States Index, underscoring the seriousness of the situation in Libya. Post-war Libya faces myriad threats to its future development, not least of which is the existence a youthful population clamoring for jobs and increased economic growth despite the country’s current state of disarray.

Published June 18, 2012 | By J. Messner, N. Haken, K. Hendry, P. Taft, K. Lawrence, T. Anderson, R. Jaeger, N. Manning, F. Umaña, A. Whitehead

The Failed States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Failed States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

Published June 18, 2012 | By T. Anderson, R. Jaeger, F. Umaña, N. Manning, A. Whitehead.

1. Somalia As the situation in Somalia continued to deteriorate in 2011, the country remains at the top of the Failed States Index for the fifth year in succession. Ten out of twelve of Somalia’s indicators scores were above 9.0 on a scale of 10. Indeed, the Refugees and IDPs as well as the Security Apparatus indicator scores remain at the highest possible level of 10.0. The absence of a permanent national government for twenty years was aggravated in 2011 by an upsurge of violence, massive human rights abuses and natural disasters. Worsened social conditions have added to political instability which led to mass displacement and impoverishment. Somalia also continues to be a relentless headache for international shipping, with the unrelenting activities of Somali pirates deep into the Indian Ocean. Despite attempts by external actors such as the African Union and neighboring Kenya to intervene in the conflict, terrorist activity by al-Shabaab and general unabating lawlessness has hampered such efforts.
—Raphaël Jaeger

Published June 18, 2012 | By Felipe Umaña

The year 2011 was a difficult one for Japan. On March 11, the 9.0-magnitude T?hoku earthquake struck the northeastern coast of Japan, triggering a powerful tsunami that left destruction in its wake as it traveled over five miles inland. Numerous landslides occurred in the countryside and several large-scale nuclear meltdowns were reported in a number of nuclear facilities that were found to be unprepared for the strength of the waves. In the resulting calamity, the government of Japan was forced to declare a state of emergency and focus its first response teams on the afflicted northeastern areas.

Because of the extensive damage, the T?hoku earthquake and its associated disasters have quickly become the world’s single most expensive natural disaster incident in history, with costs estimated to be over USD $200 billion. Although Japan has implemented a large-scale and successful rebuilding program, the nation’s full recovery will take some time due to the severity of the destruction.

The impact of the earthquake was felt sharply in Japan’s Failed States Index score for 2011, with the country registering the second-largest year-on-year “worsening” in the history of the Index. The country’s Demographic Pressures indicator score dropped by 4.7 points in this year’s Index, consistent with the intensity of the temblors and tsunami. Though the main destruction occurred in the northeastern region of Japan and thus affected only a section of the population, the complete decimation of hundreds of thousands of homes and the subsequent uprooting of thousands of men, women, and children from their domiciles heavily deteriorated the previously stable demographic conditions. The increase in population displacement and the rush to accommodate those affected also worsened the country’s Refugee and IDP score, showing an increase of 2.9 points. Similarly, the Poverty and Economic Decline score suffered a 0.5 point uptick due to the economic hardships associated with the natural disaster and its effect on the country’s productivity.

Published April 11, 2012 | By Felipe Umaña

The Tri-Border Area is formed by the junction of three different cities: Puerto Iguazú, Argentina; Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil; and Ciudad del Este, Paraguay. Located in the eastern-central part of the Southern Cone in South America, the triple frontier region is known for its impressive Iguaçu Falls – a group of cataracts that draw over 700,000 tourists each year – and other natural sites throughout the the Iguazú National Park. The region is also notable for being the home of the world’s largest hydroelectric plant, the Itaipu Dam.

Demographically, the area is very ethnically diverse. In addition to the native Paraguayans, Brazilians, and Argentine populations, there are also substantial pockets of people of Chinese, Colombian, Iranian, Italian, Korean, Lebanese, Palestinian, Taiwanese, and Ukrainian descent. The triple frontier boasts a large Arab minority presence of around 10,000 and 75,000 people, mostly from Lebanon and Palestine.

Of the three cities that form the Tri-Border Area, Ciudad del Este is the largest and busiest, serving as the region’s economic center. Its streets are regularly clogged with street merchants, shoppers, cambistas (informal currency exchangers), and others that help fuel its burgeoning economy. In fact, Ciudad del Este has ranked third worldwide in cash transactions, averaging well over US$12 billion annually in the early 2000s.2 Foz do Iguaçu, which boasts some of the region’s most frequented tourist destinations (including Latin America’s largest mosque), is the second largest city. Puerto Iguazú rounds out the trio in terms of population size.

Published March 30, 2012 | By Felipe Umaña

The Congress for the People of Cyrenaica, which was held in eastern Libya’s largest city, Benghazi, attracted international attention after the group demanded greater autonomy from the central government in Tripoli and a reversion to the federal Libya that existed in the 1950s.

Cyrenaica — or Barqa, as it is referred to locally — stretches from the littoral town of Sirte (known famously as the birthplace of Muammar Gaddafi) to the eastern border with Egypt. The globally recognized representative of the Libyan people, the Tripoli-headquartered National Transitional Council (NTC), immediately rejected demands for greater self-government. Believing that more self-government may lead to the division of the Libyan state, the leader of the NTC, Mustafa Abdel Jalil, promised to defend the unity of Libya by force, if necessary.

Political representatives in Cyrenaica have no intention of backing down from their recent calls for more independence from Tripoli. The reasons behind this “final and irreversible” call for Cyrenaican autonomy are plentiful and deserve attention. However, rash actions and force of any kind can transform this issue into a catalyst for civil unrest and pit Tripoli and Benghazi against each other. Any further tensions could easily push this call for greater autonomy into a large-scale division of Libya.

As a country still in political flux, Libya may not be prepared to withstand the consequences of Cyrenaica’s unofficial bid for more self-government. In order for the country to maintain peace and order, both the central government and civic leaders in Cyrenaica will have approach political talks with transparency and open minds. If not, Libya could become Africa’s next Somalia.