Published December 31, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford

The Republic of the Congo is still recovering from a civil war that devastated the country in the late 1990s. The country has made significant improvements and most militia groups have disbanded. While the government has made attempts at reconciliation, the peace remains extremely fragile. Many parts of the country remain extremely underdeveloped, and the inhabitants of those regions often lack adequate public services. Consistent economic growth from the expansion of the oil sector is encouraging. If the government is able to maintain peace within the country and maintain economic expansion, the country will be able to address its infrastructure and health concerns. A continuing area for concern rests in the government’s commitment to free and fair elections. Given the discontent following elections in 2009, a test of stability will come following elections in 2012.

Published December 24, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford and Raphaël Jaeger

For a long time a bastion of stability in a turbulent region, Cameroon is showing signs of deterioration. A lack of anticorruption reforms and free elections have undermined the legitimacy of the increasingly authoritarian government, particularly as the regime’s popularity is being adversely affected by unfavorable economic conditions. The opposition’s failure to be more integrated into the country’s politics has threatened severe political fragmentation. Outside pressures also pose a risk, as neighboring conflicts have the potential to spill over into Cameroon. On the economic front, establishing a stable macroeconomic framework, diversifying the economy, and building infrastructure remain key priorities in order to counter the effects of the economic downturn that is destabilizing the country.

Published December 15, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford

Timor-Leste, one of the world’s youngest nations, remains extremely fragile. Economic pressures currently present a challenge to the country’s stability, as high rates of unemployment and oil dependence indicate that current growth is likely to be unsustainable. Timor-Leste relies heavily on international assistance, especially to feed its population, and is unlikely to become self-reliant in the near future. A key area for economic improvement is building domestic production facilities in order to generate more jobs. Diversification of the economy will also be important, as profits from Timor-Leste’s oil industry will not be able to solve the country’s problems. While political tensions have improved in the past year, polarization could quickly reverse progress made thus far. Focus on strengthening institutions and the rule of law will continue to be sorely needed.

Published December 12, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford and Raphaël Jaeger

Political instability, natural disasters, lack of necessary resources, international dependence, and poor economic policies are key factors preventing Bangladesh from realizing its economic potential. Corruption and impunity among the police and civil services inspire fear and instability throughout the country. Although such pressures are still apparent and present, the country is attempting to reduce their effects with a focus on more educational services and economic reforms. The consolidation of the democratically elected government for another year is a positive development for the country’s stability. Political factionalization seems to be a pressure that will not dissipate quickly, but the government’s recent efforts and the international community’s support will hopefully keep the country on its gradual incline towards social, economic, and political improvement.

Published November 12, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford

In 2010, Parliament approved a package of wide-ranging constitutional reforms aimed at transferring key powers of the President to the Prime Minister. Improvements in indicators for group grievance and state legitimacy, although marginal, reflect these efforts. Massive floods in 2010 killed an estimated 2,000 people and affected more than 20 million. High water from monsoon rains in August and September 2011 have displaced an additional 1.8 million people and affected more than 5.4 million people in Sindh and Balochistan Provinces. Aided by U.S. funding, the Pakistani intelligence and security forces are fighting Taliban groups in remote sections of north-western Pakistan on the border with Afghanistan. Former President Musharraf declared rule by martial law in 2007, and this is yet to be rescinded by current President Zardari. Tensions with India over disputed territory in Kashmir often elicit concerns over war between two nuclear powers. High inflation, unemployment, and a youth bulge threaten future economic growth.

Published November 12, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford

The Central African Republic remains one of the least stable countries in the world, with spillover from neighboring conflicts likely to continue to destabilize the area. The country’s economy has stagnated under poor policies since independence. A history of coups d’etat has destabilized the government and allowed the rest of the country to fall into disorder. The government is unable to exert any substantive control over the more remote provinces and poor infrastructure prevents effective rule within the areas the government does control. A truce between the government and rebel forces in June 2008 led to the establishment of a more inclusive coalition government in January 2009. However, the postponement by almost a year of elections originally scheduled for early 2010 has undermined trust in the government and highlighted problems with the country’s political polarization.

Published October 31, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford

The D.R. Congo continues to struggle, with poverty remaining widespread throughout the country and violence and instability continuing in the east. In addition to a lack of capacity, the Congolese security forces lack credibility due to their widespread human rights abuses. There is a need for the government to better hold accountable members of the security forces and to punish those who are committing human rights abuses. Fighting corruption, ending impunity of the security forces and creating a more capable and professional military are also key priorities. The need for increasing the capacity and legitimacy of government security forces has become increasingly urgent.

Published October 31, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford

Instability and violence continue to define Sudan. The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), signed in January 2005, granted a referendum on independence for Southern Sudan. The southern half of the country voted to secede from the north in January 2011 and Southern Sudan became an independent country on 9 July 2011. Initially, it was hoped that this may reduce sectarian violence between the Muslim-dominated North and the generally Christian and animist South, though new clashes are being reported, especially around the disputed town of Abyei. The discovery of oil in southern Sudan in 2005 exacerbated an already complex secession crisis and it remains to be seen how peaceful the planned separation will be. Violence also continues in Darfur, a region in western Sudan, sending refugees into central Sudan and also neighboring states, giving the conflict a regional dimension. Leaders in the North and the South will have to exercise restraint and restrict the use of violence by fringe rebel groups if the fragile peace is to be consolidated.

Published October 31, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford

Following the devastating earthquake in January 2010, Haiti’s situation has deteriorated rapidly, with complete dependence on international humanitarian relief and the significant presence of foreign peacekeepers. Haiti faces great challenges in rebuilding, a task further complicated by the country’s previously weak institutions and widespread extreme poverty. Haiti’s security forces are woefully unprepared to take over policing duties, and serious reforms will need to be implemented. Haiti’s government will find itself having to demonstrate its commitment to the rebuilding process. Similarly, efforts to stem political instability and factionalism to create a government capable of guiding the country through the disaster recovery will be crucial. Michel Martelly was elected president in May 2011, replacing René Préval who presided over the initial post-earthquake recovery effort.

Published October 21, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford

Despite the aggressive efforts of the international community and the United Nations, the situation in Somalia continues to deteriorate and the country remains at the very top of the Failed States Index. The absence of a permanent national government for almost twenty years has led to ongoing civil violence, economic hardship, poor social conditions, and the displacement of several million Somali citizens. It has become increasingly difficult for international agencies to provide aid to Somalia in light of the recent troubles with piracy and hostility towards foreigners. An upsurge of civil violence in the southern part of the nation has created further destabilization and threatens any potential improvements to Somalia’s condition. Marginal progress in 2010 is unlikely to be sustained unless the Transitional Federal Government manages to assert authority over powerful militant groups.

Published July 6, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford

Georgia’s substantial score improvement in 2011 is encouraging for future reforms in the country. Successful political reforms and significant economic recovery boosted the state’s legitimacy. The country is improving across the board, demonstrating a steady recovery from political and economic setbacks in 2008 and 2009, and increasing its ability to attract foreign investment. However, the country still faces a number of challenges, including separatist movements, corruption, widespread poverty, shaky relations with Russia, and a large number of IDPs. Political tensions also remain a concern, as elites become increasingly split between supporters and opponents of President Saakashvili. The quality of the next elections will be crucial to determining Georgia’s continued improvement.

Published June 21, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford

Despite progress made by the RAMSI operation, the Solomon Islands continue to be plagued by weak political institutions and an underperforming economy, made worse by widespread corruption. These factors are undermining further reconciliation and peaceful development. The impending collapse of the logging industry, a key source of export revenue, could potentially trigger unrest and a renewal of conflict. Many Solomon Islanders also remain homeless after landslides and a tsunami. Continued Australian support, commitment to the Solomon Islands Government – RAMSI Partnership Framework, and continued success with the truth and reconciliation commission will contribute to any improvements of the situation.

Published June 20, 2011
Publication CR-11-14-FS
Report available in PDF and Flash formats

The Failed States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Failed States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

June 20, 2011
By Kristen Blandford, Annie Janus and Kendall Lawrence
The Failed States Index

1. Somalia

On this year’s Failed States Index, Somalia scored as the worst offender for Refugees and IDPs, Economic Decline, Human rights and Security Apparatus. The absence of a permanent national government for almost twenty years has led to ongoing civil violence, economic hardship, poor social conditions, and the displacement of several million Somali citizens. It has become increasingly difficult for international agencies to provide aid to Somalia in light of the recent troubles with piracy and hostility towards foreigners. An upsurge of civil violence in the southern part of the nation has created further destabilization and threatens any potential improvements to Somalia’s condition.

Published May 17, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford

Uruguay continues to be one of the more prosperous countries in South America, with solid economic growth, responsible economic and political policies, and a well-consolidated democracy. Progress continues to be made in the political arena as leaders have stuck to their promises to investigate human rights abuses committed during the country’s military dictatorship, further contributing to national unity and reconciliation. Major reforms in 2010 moved to improve the poor conditions in Uruguay’s prisons. However, Uruguay faces challenges with stabilizing its external debt and relatively high inflation rates. Reforms to address gender, sexual and racial discrimination and to relieve a backlogged judiciary are needed to further consolidate the country’s democracy. Despite these areas for improvement, Uruguay looks set to maintain economic, social, and political stability.