May 3, 2011
By Kenneth C. Brill and Nate Haken
The Fund for Peace Commentary

Compared to past Nigerian elections, this one was relatively free and fair. Now the hard work begins for President Goodluck Jonathan. In the North, post election violence has killed over 100 people and displaced thousands. But the real worry, in many ways, is the situation in the South. Indeed, whether Nigeria slides inexorably towards state failure or joins the world’s emerging powers will be determined in the Niger Delta, the heart of the nation’s oil economy. Nigeria’s oil exports matter to Nigeria—they account for more than 80% of government revenue. Nigeria, as an oil producer matters to the world—it is the fourth largest exporter worldwide. The absence of sustainable development and security in the Niger Delta could impact the price of gas at the pump and the pace of the global economic recovery.

February 25, 2011
By Kenneth C. Brill
The Fund for Peace Commentary

In June 2010, Mohammed ElBaradei told a meeting of Egyptian reformers and lawyers that Egypt’s negative ranking (in the lowest quartile) in The Fund for Peace’s “Failed States Index” was a “disaster” that demanded the urgent attention of the Egyptian people. With President Mubarak’s departure, those involved in the ongoing transition process in Cairo and, indeed, all the Egyptian people now have a chance to provide that urgent attention.

In the wake of the Tahrir Square demonstrations, many promises have been made, principally to address the democratization and human rights demands of the demonstrators and the public more broadly. This is a good start. However, a careful look at the reasons Egypt ranked so poorly on the “Failed States Index” suggests there are other important areas that must be addressed if Egypt is to move from failing to successful state status.

February 17, 2011
By Kenneth C. Brill and Nate Haken
The Fund for Peace Commentary

Elections are intended as a renewal of the social contract between the people and their government. But they can also violate that contract. In Africa, the 2011 election calendar is packed, adding to the hopes and fears of people across the content. So while the international spotlight is currently focused on the drama playing out in Egypt, a larger drama may be about to unfold elsewhere on the continent.

This is the year of the African election, with national-level elections scheduled in sixteen countries between January and December. Apart from Egypt, Central African Republic, Nigeria, Liberia, Djibouti, Benin, Niger, Madagascar, Chad, Cape Verde, Gambia, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Uganda all have national level elections this year. Some may be contested with force, not just ballots; others will be peaceful and possibly transformative. While democracy requires much more than a single election, good elections support democracy, development and security. Bad elections, including those whose results are overturned, can destabilize entire regions.

January 19, 2011
By Kenneth C. Brill
The Fund for Peace Commentary

It is fair to say that developments in Tunisia over the last week surprised virtually all observers and we at The Fund for Peace count ourselves among those who would not have predicted the timing of the middle class revolt against the Tunisian regime. Nonetheless, Tunisia’s ranking of 122 (out of 177 states reviewed), which put it in the “warning zone,” in The Fund for Peace’s Failed States Index was based on the very factors that produced the “surprising” events of last weekend.