Published November 8, 2012 | By Kendall Lawrence, Nate Haken, Patricia Taft, Nóra Loncsár

On April 26, 2012, the International Criminal Court convicted Liberia’s former president Charles Taylor for his role in the commission of crimes against humanity during the war in Sierra Leone in the 1990s. For Sierra Leone, this brought a dark chapter to a close — and for Liberia as well.

From 1989 to 1990, Charles Taylor and Prince Johnson fought to overthrow then-president Samuel Doe. After Johnson captured and killed Doe (sipping a Budweiser as he chopped off his ears), he and Taylor fought a bloody war for control of Monrovia. Taylor eventually took power, but the country was plunged into a civil war that lasted until 2003 when peacekeepers were deployed and Taylor was exiled to Nigeria.

Researchers from The Fund for Peace (FFP) and Liberia Democracy Watch (LDW) were present in Gbarnga, Taylor’s erstwhile base of operations, for a conflict assessment workshop on the day of the conviction. Riot police and UNMIL forces were deployed en masse, standing by in the event of protest. However, time had apparently passed Taylor by. People went about their businesses. “It’s over,” one person said.

Published June 18, 2012 | By J. Messner, N. Haken, K. Hendry, P. Taft, K. Lawrence, T. Anderson, R. Jaeger, N. Manning, F. Umaña, A. Whitehead

The Failed States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Failed States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

Published June 18, 2012 | By Kendall Lawrence

Holding the title as the world’s newest nation, South Sudan gained its independence on July 9, 2011. With only a half year of data belonging to the new country, it was scored but not ranked on this year’s Failed States Index (FSI). Had it been ranked, it would have come in 4th on the index, just better than its parent to the north, Sudan.

It represents only the third occasion that the Fund for Peace has divided a country for the purpose of analysis. Most recently, Serbia has been divided twice since the beginning of the FSI: in 2007, Serbia and Montenegro were analyzed separately after the previous union was dissolved. More recently in 2011, Kosovo was removed from analysis on Serbia (though Kosovo is not analyzed as part of the Failed States Index as it is not a UN-recognized state). As countries split, pressures will shift, historically reducing, though that may not be the case with Sudan and South Sudan. Despite the split, active conflict between the neighboring states has continued.

South Sudan’s contemporary history as a nation is short and is focused primarily on its separation from the north. This year, more than any other, the scores of the two nations are intertwined. Because the split happened halfway through the year, the consequences and reactions are reflected clearly. It is important to look at where there are differences in the scores of the two countries. South Sudan has inherited many social and political problems from the older nation.

Published June 11, 2012 | By K. Lawrence, N. Haken, P. Taft, T. Anderson, S. Levine

The year 2011 was an illuminating period with respect to pressures and resilience in Liberia. Early in the year, Liberia experienced significant social pressures from abroad as neighboring Cote d’Ivoire descended into a major political crisis sending thousands of refugees into Nimba and Grand Gedeh counties. Then, internally, Liberia experienced heightened political pressure as the election season peaked in November. Despite this dangerous confluence of conflict drivers and triggers, there were no major outbreaks of violence during the year. Liberia was able to weather external shocks and internal pressure, reinforcing the notion that the country has come a long way since 2004. This report takes a look at Nimba and Montserrado counties within the broader national context, in terms of pressures and resilience throughout 2011 and beyond. It draws on data generated by local civil society networks, from automated content analysis data (from a sample of 28,634 news articles), and a qualitative review of the data, informed by field visits and desktop research.

Published December 24, 2011 | By Kendall Lawrence

Though Sierra Leone ranked 30th in the 2011 Failed States Index, the country has made significant progress since ranking 6th in the 2005 Index. Continuing improvements rely on the country’s political and social stability. The new government is focusing on creating new jobs, curbing corruption, and continuing development projects in the country. Still rebuilding from the destructive decade long civil war, high tensions threaten to dissolve any progress that has been made. The Demobilization, Disarmament, and Reintegration program created at the end of the war continues to run, but the reintegration step has fallen short. The 2012 elections are crucial for monitoring progress in Sierra Leone.

Published December 24, 2011 | By Kendall Lawrence

Independent from Ethiopia for only two decades, the country continues to have a contentious relationship with its neighbors. Regional aggression has served to distract from the delayed implementation of democratic reforms promised by the government. The country received international condemnation for its provocation of Djibouti by fortifying their shared border, though some progress was made during 2010. UN sanctions imposed in late 2009 for alleged funding of Somali rebels bode ill for the already underdeveloped economy. The country has no independent media, few civil liberties, no political opposition, and regularly denies foreign aid. The country also suffers from chronic food insecurity and has one of the lowest rates of development in the world. Stability in Eritrea is unlikely unless the government commits to serious political and economic reforms. In the last decade Eritrea has become one of the world's most closed nations often called the “African North Korea.”

Published November 12, 2011 | By Kendall Lawrence

Afghanistan has ranked in the top ten on the Failed States Index for the past five years. The country faces many security challenges, including attacks on local and foreign security forces and widespread violence perpetrated by insurgent groups. Insurgents (often linked to the Taliban) and illegally armed groups continue to undermine efforts to forge a functioning government capable of providing access to basic necessities and public services. Pervasive political corruption and the prominence of drug lords seriously challenge state legitimacy. The government’s inability to control regions in which drug lords operate has made it difficult to combat the country’s robust drug trade and the growing black market. Until Afghanistan has the capacity to suppress its many security challenges, improved stability is unlikely.

Published October 14, 2011 | By Kendall Lawrence

The Haqqani Network is an insurgent group that operates from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) region of Pakistan. The group has been active mainly in the southeast of Afghanistan—in Paktia, Paktika, Khost, Ghazni Wardak and, occasionally, Kabul provinces. For the past two years, the group has focused on gaining support and control of Kurram Agency, a province of Pakistan not far from Kabul, which is mostly beyond the scope of U.S. drone activity. It is led by Siraj Haqqani, the son of the network’s founder, the famous anti-Soviet fighter and former CIA asset, Jalaluddin Haqqani. The Network falls under the larger umbrella of the Taliban, although they maintain their own command and control structures.

Published September 1, 2011 | By Annie Janus and Kendall Lawrence

Al Shabaab, a hard-line militia group, controls most of southern Somalia and, until recently, a large swath of Mogadishu. Though the exact origins of al-Shabaab are unknown, most scholars believe that the group started as a military faction of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), which took over Mogadishu and large parts of the south after intense factionalized fighting in 2006. Al-Shabaab has waged an insurgency against Somalia's transitional federal government (TFG) and its Ethiopian supporters over the past five years. The full name of the group is Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (HSM) meaning ‘Movement of Striving Youth.’ The fighters are a mix of local and foreign youth, attracted to the group by its claims to be the defenders of Somali dignity from outside invaders while it also calls for a broader global jihad.

Published July 8, 2011 | By J. J. Messner, Nate Haken, Joelle Burbank and Kendall Lawrence

As a result of the January 2011 referendum for independence, South Sudan formally declared its autonomy from the Republic of Sudan on July 9. Amid the celebration, there is growing recognition that from the start, the world’s newest country is guaranteed to face enormous pressures both from within its territory and from across the border. Testing its legitimacy, the Government of South Sudan will face the challenge of accommodating minority groups struggling for representation and power within the new structure. At the same time, the state will need to establish control over the entire territory without violating the human rights of those groups which are loathe to integrate politically and militarily. Border skirmishes between the SPLA and northern forces are likely, which could implicate affinity groups that straddle both countries, further complicating the internal pressures cited above.  Disputes with the Republic of Sudan over oil revenues could prove combustible, with implications for development and security in South Sudan. These political and security issues will occur in the context of ethnic tensions, poverty, drought, disease, population displacement, rudimentary infrastructure, and inadequate essential service delivery.  It will take much work and support for the Republic of South Sudan to succeed.

Publication CR-11-19-UL
Published June 30, 2011
By Nate Haken, Kendall Lawrence

Despite a relatively smooth election in February—not violent by historical standards—stability in Uganda appeared a little shaky during the period of January-April 2011. Although there were reports of some irregularities and the use of state funds to shore up the incumbency, overall the election itself was considered reasonably free, if less than fair. Opposition candidates refused to concede defeat. Then, after a failed attempt to inspire popular protest against the election results, the opposition successfully mobilized a massive campaign of protests in multiple cities against rising food and fuel prices. This was seen as a demonstration of popular discontent with the effectiveness of government. These protests went on for days and frequently became violent. Several people were shot dead and hundreds were reportedly arrested during these protests.

Published June 20, 2011
Publication CR-11-14-FS
Report available in PDF and Flash formats

The Failed States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Failed States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

June 20, 2011
By Kristen Blandford, Annie Janus and Kendall Lawrence
The Failed States Index

1. Somalia

On this year’s Failed States Index, Somalia scored as the worst offender for Refugees and IDPs, Economic Decline, Human rights and Security Apparatus. The absence of a permanent national government for almost twenty years has led to ongoing civil violence, economic hardship, poor social conditions, and the displacement of several million Somali citizens. It has become increasingly difficult for international agencies to provide aid to Somalia in light of the recent troubles with piracy and hostility towards foreigners. An upsurge of civil violence in the southern part of the nation has created further destabilization and threatens any potential improvements to Somalia’s condition.

Published May 20, 2011 | By Kendall Lawrence

Conventional weapons continue to proliferate around the globe at an astonishing rate, representing a threat to civilian populations. The term, ‘conventional weapons’ generally refers to weapons that are in wide use and are not weapons of mass destruction, such as nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons. They include small arms and light weapons, sea and land mines, as well as (non-nuclear) bombs, shells, rockets, missiles and cluster munitions. Their use during war is governed by the Geneva Conventions and other agreements and conventions. Conventional weapons are widely used in conflict around the globe. They are used by both state and non-state actors, though trade is tracked on the state level.
Conventional weapons are a topic of discussion on many levels on the international field. Examining the trends in international arms transfers helps to create a broader understanding of the scope and effect of conventional weapons.

This fact sheet provides a basic overview of the trade in conventional weapons.

Publication CR-11-08-UL
Report available in PDF and Flash formats

The period of August—December 2010 was a very political season in Uganda, with the NRM (National Resistance Movement) primaries in August, the nomination of presidential candidates in October, followed by the beginning of the campaigns for the February 2011 elections. Thus, as could be expected, there was a sharp increase in reports coming from the UNLocK participants relating to political factors. Whereas in the previous five months there were relatively few reports relating to state legitimacy, this issue, particularly incidents of corruption and election irregularities, were reported frequently by participants from August to December. There were fears expressed about the potential for election violence, especially considering the 2009 and 2010 riots in Kampala, which some felt could be reignited in the heat of the contest. However, although there were a few reports of violence and intimidation, this was less of an issue in the run-up to the election than many had anticipated, especially as compared with previous Ugandan elections.