Published June 20, 2011
Publication CR-11-14-FS
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The Failed States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Failed States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

June 20, 2011
By J. J. Messner and Melody Knight
The Failed States Index

From the earthquake in Haiti to the volcano in Iceland, 2010 was a big year for natural disasters. Over a quarter million people were killed last year, and millions displaced, as a result of blizzards, droughts, earthquakes, floods, heat waves, landslides, and super typhoons, making it the deadliest year in more than a generation. These disasters claimed the lives of over 290,000 people in 2010, compared with just 11,000 in 2009, according to Munich Re.

Though conflict and poverty tend to be the domain of countries at the worst end of the Failed States Index, natural disasters are non-discriminating, terrorizing the “rich” and “poor” alike. But their actual effect can be particularly damaging for developing states. Poor infrastructure and urban crowding maximize fatalities and disrupt the ability to provide service to survivors. Displacement can also exacerbate existing tensions between groups and strains on supplies.

Publication CR-11-08-UL
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The period of August—December 2010 was a very political season in Uganda, with the NRM (National Resistance Movement) primaries in August, the nomination of presidential candidates in October, followed by the beginning of the campaigns for the February 2011 elections. Thus, as could be expected, there was a sharp increase in reports coming from the UNLocK participants relating to political factors. Whereas in the previous five months there were relatively few reports relating to state legitimacy, this issue, particularly incidents of corruption and election irregularities, were reported frequently by participants from August to December. There were fears expressed about the potential for election violence, especially considering the 2009 and 2010 riots in Kampala, which some felt could be reignited in the heat of the contest. However, although there were a few reports of violence and intimidation, this was less of an issue in the run-up to the election than many had anticipated, especially as compared with previous Ugandan elections.