Published August 22, 2012 | By Natalie Manning

Despite some gains made after the 2011 revolution, such as a successful transition of government, new President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi faces many challenges. Ousted President Ali Abdullah Saleh still yields considerable power in the country, and President Hadi has been unable to purge many of Saleh’s loyalists who hold top positions in the government and military. The South remains unsettled due to the presence of a militant insurgency. In addition, the extreme terrain in Yemen makes it the ideal haven for rebels and al-Qaeda militants, with several terrorist bomb attacks occurring in Yemen in early 2012. Many Yemeni are still very poor, there is a high illiteracy rate and rampant government corruption.

Published August 22, 2012 | By Natalie Manning

Haiti’s existing challenges were exacerbated by the 2010 earthquake that killed over 200,000 people and displaced a million more. The rebuilding of infrastructure has barely begun, and a cholera outbreak has added to Haiti’s woes. The country remains the poorest in the Western hemisphere and is heavily reliant on aid for survival. Haiti will need to diversify its economy to become self-sustaining, including focusing on developing the rural areas and reviving agriculture to reduce its reliance on imported food.

Published June 27, 2012 | By Nate Haken, Natalie Manning, Megan Turner, Amelia Whitehead

As Goodluck Jonathan begins his new term as President of Nigeria, he faces many challenges. Even as a fragile peace takes hold in the Niger Delta, gang violence and criminality continue unabated. In the North, Boko Haram, an Islamist terrorist group, continues to wreak havoc. Though the government has taken some steps towards strengthening the democratic process, instances of corruption and vote rigging have been reported at the state and local levels over the past seven months. The Nigerian government, civil society, and other stakeholders must take steps to address these governance and security issues, or risk further instability in the future.

This report compiles the incidents and issues documented by civil society representatives in the UNLocK Nigeria early warning network from October 2011 to April 2012, with a particular focus on the state and local government area levels of Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Delta and Kaduna.

Incidents and issues summarized here include election irregularities surrounding gubernatorial elections, such as political corruption and intimidation, as well as social and economic pressures relating to land competition, group grievance and violent crime. These incidents and issues are categorized according to the Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST) framework, which allows for a holistic evaluation of the pressures on society and the state that could increase the risk of instability.

Published June 18, 2012 | By J. Messner, N. Haken, K. Hendry, P. Taft, K. Lawrence, T. Anderson, R. Jaeger, N. Manning, F. Umaña, A. Whitehead

The Failed States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Failed States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

Published June 18, 2012 | By T. Anderson, R. Jaeger, F. Umaña, N. Manning, A. Whitehead.

1. Somalia As the situation in Somalia continued to deteriorate in 2011, the country remains at the top of the Failed States Index for the fifth year in succession. Ten out of twelve of Somalia’s indicators scores were above 9.0 on a scale of 10. Indeed, the Refugees and IDPs as well as the Security Apparatus indicator scores remain at the highest possible level of 10.0. The absence of a permanent national government for twenty years was aggravated in 2011 by an upsurge of violence, massive human rights abuses and natural disasters. Worsened social conditions have added to political instability which led to mass displacement and impoverishment. Somalia also continues to be a relentless headache for international shipping, with the unrelenting activities of Somali pirates deep into the Indian Ocean. Despite attempts by external actors such as the African Union and neighboring Kenya to intervene in the conflict, terrorist activity by al-Shabaab and general unabating lawlessness has hampered such efforts.
—Raphaël Jaeger

Published June 18, 2012 | By Natalie Manning

The Arab Spring was one of the biggest stories of 2011, and many of its effects have been registered in the 2012 Failed States Index — Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia and Yemen all saw their scores seriously worsen. For some, the tension has eased, at least for now. For others, conflict and instability continues.

The Arab Spring hit Syria in April 2011 with demonstrations in the southern town of Dara’a against the government’s heavy handed response to students who had spray painted anti-government slogans. The uprising quickly spread and President Bashar al-Assad’s security forces brutally cracked down on the population. By late 2011, the opposition had transformed from a peaceful movement into an armed insurrection. An estimated 13,000 people have died since the conflict began, and thousands more have been displaced as the country spirals further towards civil war.

Until 2012, Syria’s ranking on the Failed States Index had been steadily improving, moving up 19 places since 2005. However, in 2012, Syria was the third most worsened country, slipping 8.6 points, a change that ranks it as the fourth-most significant decline in the history of the Index. Syria’s performance so far this year also puts it at risk of continued decline in the 2013 Index, as a significant uptick in violence has already been witnessed in the first half of 2012.