Published July 19, 2012 | By Raphaël Jaeger

Somalia has been suffering from the absence of a permanent and effective central government since President Barre was overthrown in 1991. Years of violence and natural disasters have led to the deaths of over 1 million people as well as the effective division of the country into three regions: the self-declared Republic of Somaliland, the semi-autonomous state of Puntland, and south and central Somalia where the Transition Federal Government is based. Terrorist organization al-Shabaab now controls significant amounts of territory, seized following the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops in 2009. The long-standing absence of authority has led to frequent pirate attacks on merchant vessels off the Somali coast.

Continuing insecurity, violations of human rights and restrictions imposed on aid agencies by rebels has aggravated the dire situation of the population. In 2011, 4 million people were deemed food insecure while tens of thousands fled to neighboring countries due to the worst drought in six decades. In September, the first airlift of UN aid in five years arrived in the capital, Mogadishu. As an upsurge of attacks created further destabilization, Kenyan troops entered Somalia in October to combat rebels they accused of having orchestrated several kidnappings of foreigners on Kenyan soil. The United States has also begun a campaign of drone flights over Somalia as part of the fight against Islamist militants.

Published June 18, 2012 | By J. Messner, N. Haken, K. Hendry, P. Taft, K. Lawrence, T. Anderson, R. Jaeger, N. Manning, F. Umaña, A. Whitehead

The Failed States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Failed States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

Published June 18, 2012 | By T. Anderson, R. Jaeger, F. Umaña, N. Manning, A. Whitehead.

1. Somalia As the situation in Somalia continued to deteriorate in 2011, the country remains at the top of the Failed States Index for the fifth year in succession. Ten out of twelve of Somalia’s indicators scores were above 9.0 on a scale of 10. Indeed, the Refugees and IDPs as well as the Security Apparatus indicator scores remain at the highest possible level of 10.0. The absence of a permanent national government for twenty years was aggravated in 2011 by an upsurge of violence, massive human rights abuses and natural disasters. Worsened social conditions have added to political instability which led to mass displacement and impoverishment. Somalia also continues to be a relentless headache for international shipping, with the unrelenting activities of Somali pirates deep into the Indian Ocean. Despite attempts by external actors such as the African Union and neighboring Kenya to intervene in the conflict, terrorist activity by al-Shabaab and general unabating lawlessness has hampered such efforts.
—Raphaël Jaeger

Published May 1, 2012 | By Raphaël Jaeger

The National League for Democracy’s landslide victory in the latest by-elections is a strong sign that Myanmar’s long-standing junta has finally outlived even its own perceptions of state health and functionality.

Nevertheless, after decades of ruling the country with an iron fist and allowing state institutions to become barely functional rubble, it is hard not to question the future viability of the country and its institutions.

Can Myanmar escape the trappings of a failed state and withstand the social, economic and political pressures it faces to avoid implosion?

A failed state cannot or will not fulfil its obligations under the social contract to provide essential services and security to the population, which can lead to instability and conflict. In the case of Myanmar, there is limited institutional and technical capacity to implement some of the reform measures being adopted.

Other symptoms of a vulnerable state are the loss of physical control of territory, or the loss of a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. Additionally, most weak and fragile states exhibit disharmonies between communities as there are no formal processes for the airing of grievances.

In spite of the ceasefires with most of Myanmar’s ethnic insurgencies, no peace agreements have been signed and many speculate that the recent ‘peace’ is only skin deep. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of Kachin people were reportedly displaced in recent months and some speculate that it is ‘business as usual’ within the country despite the purported governmental reforms.

Published December 24, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford and Raphaël Jaeger

For a long time a bastion of stability in a turbulent region, Cameroon is showing signs of deterioration. A lack of anticorruption reforms and free elections have undermined the legitimacy of the increasingly authoritarian government, particularly as the regime’s popularity is being adversely affected by unfavorable economic conditions. The opposition’s failure to be more integrated into the country’s politics has threatened severe political fragmentation. Outside pressures also pose a risk, as neighboring conflicts have the potential to spill over into Cameroon. On the economic front, establishing a stable macroeconomic framework, diversifying the economy, and building infrastructure remain key priorities in order to counter the effects of the economic downturn that is destabilizing the country.

Published December 14, 2011 | By Alessandra Wasserstrom and Raphaël Jaeger

Due to Nepal’s relatively recent transition to a democratic government, it continues to experience teething troubles in its minority coalition government. In 2010, it faced many problems resulting from both physical and rhetorical clashes with the Maoist minority but has since resolved those issues. Significant progress has been made recently, notably with the election of a new prime minister and the completion of an agreement concerning former Maoist rebels. Nepal continues to experience severe problems with food security, as large portions of its rural population are stricken with both high unemployment rates and lack of food availability leading to increased migration to urban areas. Recently, the government has begun to address this problem, although improvements are slow. Moreover, Nepal has a very high rate of corruption among government officials, further delegitimizing the government and not allowing for essential aid and funds to reach those most in need.

Published December 12, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford and Raphaël Jaeger

Political instability, natural disasters, lack of necessary resources, international dependence, and poor economic policies are key factors preventing Bangladesh from realizing its economic potential. Corruption and impunity among the police and civil services inspire fear and instability throughout the country. Although such pressures are still apparent and present, the country is attempting to reduce their effects with a focus on more educational services and economic reforms. The consolidation of the democratically elected government for another year is a positive development for the country’s stability. Political factionalization seems to be a pressure that will not dissipate quickly, but the government’s recent efforts and the international community’s support will hopefully keep the country on its gradual incline towards social, economic, and political improvement.

Published November 30, 2011 | By Amangeldi Djumanaliev and Raphaël Jaeger

Situated in a relatively volatile region of East Africa, sandwiched next to Rwanda and the restive eastern provinces of D. R. Congo, Burundi continues to be one of the world’s poorest countries. Since independence from Belgium, Burundi has been beset by ethnic conflict between the Tutsi minority (which owned most of the land and controlled the army and much of the economy) and the Hutu majority. The country has been characterized by repeated ethnic conflict, military coups, assassinations, and low-intensity civil wars. In May 2008, the government signed a ceasefire with the last active rebel group, formally ending the civil war. Recent arrests of journalists and opposition party members, and harassment of civil society have added to current concerns. The al Shabaab terrorist group has made threats to conduct terrorist attacks against Burundi in retaliation to Bujumbura’s decision to send 4,000 peacekeeping troops to Somalia.

Published November 30, 2011 | By Annie Janus and Raphaël Jaeger

Despite several notable improvements, many deep-seated issues continue to threaten Nigeria’s stability. Significant efforts to prevent fraud in the 2011 election nevertheless failed to prevent the eruption of post-election violence, which also plagued the 2003 and 2007 elections. Moreover, the 2011 elections exacerbated north-south religious and ethnic tensions, leaving the state vulnerable to further internal conflict. Inadequate healthcare, uneven distribution of wealth, and corruption also continue to undermine state capacity. President Goodluck Jonathan has promulgated his anti-corruption commitment, but the pervasiveness of corruption in Nigeria will make this a difficult task. Since most inter-communal conflicts are rooted in struggles for food, jobs, and land, economic reforms will be needed to mitigate these sources of instability.

Published November 30, 2011 | By Ed Nagle and Raphaël Jaeger

While Kenya has made positive strides towards political stability and corruption reduction, both issues continue to be threats to its nascent democracy. Single party rule from 1963 to 2002 has only recently been replaced by a multi-party system and broad-based coalitions. Following inter-tribal political violence in the wake of the 2007 national elections, Kenya successfully passed a new constitution in 2010. Its passage marks a tremendous opportunity for Kenya. In particular, it is targeted at reducing the control of the provincial governments and shifting that authority to individual counties in the hopes of reducing corruption. Adding a second chamber to parliament and a bill of rights are also very positive steps but political affiliations and voting patterns remain strongly tied to tribal identities.

Published November 30, 2011 | By Michael Berman and Raphaël Jaeger

After five decades of totalitarian military rule, the junta was dissolved in 2011 following a general election. Though the military continues to dominate politics, the civilian government has nevertheless rapidly implemented a series of reforms including the right to form trade unions, the release of some 6,000 political prisoners as well as easing media censorship and allowing the National League for Democracy party to participate the upcoming elections. The U.S. secretary of State’s visit to Naypyidaw in December 2011 was aimed to encourage President Thein Sein to deepen the reform process in Myanmar that has been approved to chair the ASEAN summit in 2014. Heavy government control of the state has arrested economic growth. Despite being resource rich, a lack of foreign investment, high inflation and deficits continue to restrict production. During 2010, Myanmar was devastated by Cyclone Nargis, which killed over 130,000 and displaced many more. Ethnic minorities continue to emigrate out of Myanmar and corruption pervades all levels of society, leading to a critical divide between elites, the working class, and minorities.

Published November 24, 2011 | By Raphaël Jaeger

Since its independence from France in 1960, Madagascar has been frequently subject to disputed elections, social unrest and coups. On March 2009, after several weeks of tensions and riots, the mayor of the capital city Antananarivo, Andry Rajoelina toppled President Marc Ravalomanana in an army-backed coup that put the country on the brink of a major humanitarian crisis. Power was then handed to a military directorate amid violent street protests. International non-emergency aid has since been frozen although a Peace Road Map was signed in September 2011, with elections scheduled for March 2012. The unrest has also had a harmful effect on the economy in a country where 77% of the population live on less than $1 per day. After several previous flouted agreements and cancelled ballots, the High Transition Authority (HTA) urgently needs to increase its capacity and legitimacy by consolidating democracy to end the country's protracted leadership battle while 80% of the population lives without access to basic public services.

Published November 14, 2011 | By Annie Janus and Raphaël Jaeger

Yemen’s performance has worsened for the 5th consecutive year. The situation has especially worsened recently, as the country has experienced significant turmoil since January 2011, when anti-government protestors began. Despite a violent response from the government, the protests have not abated. The situation has further deteriorated with divisions among tribal leaders in their support of President Saleh, resulting in clashes between the opposition and Saleh’s supporters. On 21 October 2011, the UN Security Council Resolution 2014 urged President Saleh to step down after human rights violations and the excessive use of force by the authorities against protesters supported by sections of the army. President Saleh has promised to step down, but has yet to do so. The instability is giving greater opportunity for human traffickers and smugglers while 400,000 refugees and IDPs are reported in Yemen. The country is also facing external intervention pressures, as the United States has recently intensified its covert war against the Yemen-based al Qaeda branch. Even when this period of turmoil calms, Yemen will still require long-term socio-political reforms and reconciliation efforts.