Published July 20, 2012 | By Erin Crandell

The Ba’ath Party has dominated Syrian politics since its ascent to power in 1968. President Bashar al-Assad, who succeeded his father in 2000, has consolidated political and military power in the hands of the Alawite minority. Ethnic tensions between the ruling Alawites and the country’s Sunni majority have existed for generations, manifesting themselves in the 1989 Hama massacre. Syria was swept up in the Arab Spring beginning in late January, when activists began holding widespread protests against the ruling Ba’ath Party. In response to the protests, Assad briefly attempted to institute reforms similar to those attempted in the early 2000s; however, after decades of emergency rule and one-party politics, the reforms were seen as inadequate. April 2011 marked the beginning of what has been over a year of bloodshed perpetrated by government forces against the opposition movement.

Syria skyrocketed up the Failed States Index from 48th place in 2011 to 23rd in 2012, the fourth-largest year-on-year worsening in the history of the Index. As the overall situation deteriorates the country is likely to continue rising. In total, nine of the twelve indicators worsened significantly. Civilian protestors and army defectors fighting under the banner of the “Free Syria Army” have engaged the government in clashes nationwide, leading to a high number of civilian casualties. Extreme human rights abuses committed by both sides have caused a stream of refugees to flee into neighboring countries, further destabilizing the region.

Published July 20, 2012 | By Natalie Shemwell and Amelia Whitehead

Comprised of over 7,000 islands, the Philippines is home to a diverse population speaking more than 87 different languages. The archipelago, first claimed by the Spanish in 1542, has since experienced numerous internal and external threats to its stability. The 1898 Treaty of Paris, which marked the end of the Spanish-American War, granted the United States control over the Philippines; however, American forces subsequently faced an armed insurgency aimed at resisting U.S. military rule. Endemic corruption, periodic shifts towards authoritarianism, and widespread poverty have plagued the country since it gained its independence in 1946.
 
Terrorism emanating from a small number of islands in the south of the country continues to constitute a significant security risk. Despite the government’s attempts at eliminating the problem, groups such as Jemaah Islamiyah and Abu Sayyaf continue to operate from isolated islands. A cease-fire between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) was signed in 2008; however, in October 2011, government forces carried out air strikes in MILF-controlled territories in response to a surge in violence in the region. President Benigno Aquino III’s ascendancy to the presidency in June 2010 has marked the transition to a period of relative political stability.

Published July 20, 2012 | By Felipe Umaña

Although Malaysia is comprised of a diverse group of ethnicities and regional identities, its political system has remained relatively stable since its independence. The predominance of a single political party was reversed in 2004 with the opposition successfully stripping the National Front Coalition of its two thirds majority (leaving it with a current simple majority). While a constitutional monarchy, the federal nature of the legislative system allows significant authorities to be delegated to local states although revenue collection and other key responsibilities remain under the control of the central government.

The country has seen a lot of economic growth over the last decade and has a growing semiconductor industry. Refugee and immigration issues, as well as rising illicit drug use, remain important policy issues in 2012.

Published July 19, 2012 | By Felipe Umaña

Before the 2011 revolution and civil war, Libya was a beacon of success on the African continent, albeit a paradoxical one. In 2009, for instance, Libya boasted the highest human development index score in Africa, and was also amongst the five best performers in terms of GDP per capita. And yet, the country’s eastern region saw — and continues to see — little economic development. The rule of law and the state’s legitimacy declined markedly during dictator Muammar Gaddafi’s near 42-year rule, while Gaddafi’s unorthodox and frequently bizarre antics won the country international pariah status for many years, in part due to the regime’s links to global terrorism.

The 2011 violence left Libya with much to rebuild, in terms of both physical infrastructure and the social, economic, and political fabric of the nation. Numerous buildings and roads, as well as key oil facilities, sustained heavy damage as a result of the struggle between pro-Gaddafi forces and the National Transitional Council (NTC) rebels.

The 16.2 point worsening between 2011-2012 was the largest year-on-year change for a country in the 8-year history of the Failed States Index, underscoring the seriousness of the situation in Libya. Post-war Libya faces myriad threats to its future development, not least of which is the existence a youthful population clamoring for jobs and increased economic growth despite the country’s current state of disarray.

Published July 19, 2012 | By Tierney Anderson and Amelia Whitehead

In recent years, Indonesia has been an success story with significant economic growth and political reform. Indonesia successfully survived the global financial crisis by boosting the output of industrial production and exports, resulting in continued GDP growth.

In order to sustain its economic growth and democratic development, Indonesia needs to address some of the key challenges that continues to hinder its progress. These challenges include infrastructure development, unemployment, corruption, violence against religious minorities and education.

Published July 19, 2012 | By Raphaël Jaeger

Somalia has been suffering from the absence of a permanent and effective central government since President Barre was overthrown in 1991. Years of violence and natural disasters have led to the deaths of over 1 million people as well as the effective division of the country into three regions: the self-declared Republic of Somaliland, the semi-autonomous state of Puntland, and south and central Somalia where the Transition Federal Government is based. Terrorist organization al-Shabaab now controls significant amounts of territory, seized following the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops in 2009. The long-standing absence of authority has led to frequent pirate attacks on merchant vessels off the Somali coast.

Continuing insecurity, violations of human rights and restrictions imposed on aid agencies by rebels has aggravated the dire situation of the population. In 2011, 4 million people were deemed food insecure while tens of thousands fled to neighboring countries due to the worst drought in six decades. In September, the first airlift of UN aid in five years arrived in the capital, Mogadishu. As an upsurge of attacks created further destabilization, Kenyan troops entered Somalia in October to combat rebels they accused of having orchestrated several kidnappings of foreigners on Kenyan soil. The United States has also begun a campaign of drone flights over Somalia as part of the fight against Islamist militants.

Published May 15, 2012 | By Samantha Levine

Economic pressures currently present a challenge to the country’s stability. Timor-Leste relies heavily on international assistance, especially to feed its population, and is unlikely to become self-reliant in the near future. A key area for economic improvement is building domestic production facilities in order to tackle the nation’s high rate of unemployment. While political tensions have improved in the past year, political transition after the elections in 2012 will test the country’s stability. Successful elections could result in the full withdrawal of the UN peacekeeping force in Timor-Leste, which would put sole responsibility of governance in the hands of the Timorese for the first time in 13 years. Focus on strengthening institutions and the rule of law will continue to be sorely needed.

Published December 31, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford

The Republic of the Congo is still recovering from a civil war that devastated the country in the late 1990s. The country has made significant improvements and most militia groups have disbanded. While the government has made attempts at reconciliation, the peace remains extremely fragile. Many parts of the country remain extremely underdeveloped, and the inhabitants of those regions often lack adequate public services. Consistent economic growth from the expansion of the oil sector is encouraging. If the government is able to maintain peace within the country and maintain economic expansion, the country will be able to address its infrastructure and health concerns. A continuing area for concern rests in the government’s commitment to free and fair elections. Given the discontent following elections in 2009, a test of stability will come following elections in 2012.

Published December 24, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford and Raphaël Jaeger

For a long time a bastion of stability in a turbulent region, Cameroon is showing signs of deterioration. A lack of anticorruption reforms and free elections have undermined the legitimacy of the increasingly authoritarian government, particularly as the regime’s popularity is being adversely affected by unfavorable economic conditions. The opposition’s failure to be more integrated into the country’s politics has threatened severe political fragmentation. Outside pressures also pose a risk, as neighboring conflicts have the potential to spill over into Cameroon. On the economic front, establishing a stable macroeconomic framework, diversifying the economy, and building infrastructure remain key priorities in order to counter the effects of the economic downturn that is destabilizing the country.

Published December 24, 2011 | By Ed Nagle

Despite improvements in recent years, political and social stability remain tentative at best in Sri Lanka. Much of northern and eastern Sri Lanka has been devastated as a result of a civil war spanning nearly three decades (1983-2011). The final year of the civil war saw hundreds of thousands of Tamil refugees internally displaced. 2011 has revealed many positive indicators for future resettlement, with one of the largest refugee camp population dropping from over 200,000 to less than 35,000. Overall economic growth has been substantial in recent years despite the global recession but economic development remains uneven. Social tensions and the potential for further violence remain high as a renewed political process unfolds.

Published December 24, 2011 | By Kendall Lawrence

Though Sierra Leone ranked 30th in the 2011 Failed States Index, the country has made significant progress since ranking 6th in the 2005 Index. Continuing improvements rely on the country’s political and social stability. The new government is focusing on creating new jobs, curbing corruption, and continuing development projects in the country. Still rebuilding from the destructive decade long civil war, high tensions threaten to dissolve any progress that has been made. The Demobilization, Disarmament, and Reintegration program created at the end of the war continues to run, but the reintegration step has fallen short. The 2012 elections are crucial for monitoring progress in Sierra Leone.

Published December 24, 2011 | By Kendall Lawrence

Independent from Ethiopia for only two decades, the country continues to have a contentious relationship with its neighbors. Regional aggression has served to distract from the delayed implementation of democratic reforms promised by the government. The country received international condemnation for its provocation of Djibouti by fortifying their shared border, though some progress was made during 2010. UN sanctions imposed in late 2009 for alleged funding of Somali rebels bode ill for the already underdeveloped economy. The country has no independent media, few civil liberties, no political opposition, and regularly denies foreign aid. The country also suffers from chronic food insecurity and has one of the lowest rates of development in the world. Stability in Eritrea is unlikely unless the government commits to serious political and economic reforms. In the last decade Eritrea has become one of the world's most closed nations often called the “African North Korea.”

Published December 20, 2011 | By Amangeldi Djumanaliev and Tierney Anderson

In recent years, Uganda’s human rights record and anti-corruption initiatives have been applauded, though further implementation of these initiatives is needed. President Yoweri Museveni, in power since 1986, was re-elected to a fourth term in office in 2011 with an overwhelming victory. Opposition candidates staged public protests, including a “Walk-to-Work” campaign, protesting over the rising cost of food, fuel, and government corruption. Government security forces responded with overwhelming force, firing at unarmed civilians and using tear gas to arrest protesters. This heavy-handed response to the protests and subsequent rioting has been criticized domestically and internationally. Meanwhile, the government continues to struggle with both political instability and economic decline. The recent deployment of 100 American military advisors to Uganda could help defeat the Lord’s Resistance Army, finally ending the two decade long war in the North and allowing for the safe return of thousands of IDPs.

Published December 15, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford

Timor-Leste, one of the world’s youngest nations, remains extremely fragile. Economic pressures currently present a challenge to the country’s stability, as high rates of unemployment and oil dependence indicate that current growth is likely to be unsustainable. Timor-Leste relies heavily on international assistance, especially to feed its population, and is unlikely to become self-reliant in the near future. A key area for economic improvement is building domestic production facilities in order to generate more jobs. Diversification of the economy will also be important, as profits from Timor-Leste’s oil industry will not be able to solve the country’s problems. While political tensions have improved in the past year, polarization could quickly reverse progress made thus far. Focus on strengthening institutions and the rule of law will continue to be sorely needed.

Published December 14, 2011 | By Alessandra Wasserstrom and Raphaël Jaeger

Due to Nepal’s relatively recent transition to a democratic government, it continues to experience teething troubles in its minority coalition government. In 2010, it faced many problems resulting from both physical and rhetorical clashes with the Maoist minority but has since resolved those issues. Significant progress has been made recently, notably with the election of a new prime minister and the completion of an agreement concerning former Maoist rebels. Nepal continues to experience severe problems with food security, as large portions of its rural population are stricken with both high unemployment rates and lack of food availability leading to increased migration to urban areas. Recently, the government has begun to address this problem, although improvements are slow. Moreover, Nepal has a very high rate of corruption among government officials, further delegitimizing the government and not allowing for essential aid and funds to reach those most in need.