Published December 12, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford and Raphaël Jaeger

Political instability, natural disasters, lack of necessary resources, international dependence, and poor economic policies are key factors preventing Bangladesh from realizing its economic potential. Corruption and impunity among the police and civil services inspire fear and instability throughout the country. Although such pressures are still apparent and present, the country is attempting to reduce their effects with a focus on more educational services and economic reforms. The consolidation of the democratically elected government for another year is a positive development for the country’s stability. Political factionalization seems to be a pressure that will not dissipate quickly, but the government’s recent efforts and the international community’s support will hopefully keep the country on its gradual incline towards social, economic, and political improvement.

Published December 11, 2011 | By Jonas Vaicikonis

The flight of North Koreans into China and the existence of massive political prisoner camps attest to deep dissatisfaction among the population. Kim Jong-Il is said to be ailing, though the reports are not confirmed, and most of the party elite are of an older generation. The eventual transition of power will be an important test for the authoritarian regime. Recent tensions over the sinking of a South Korean naval vessel by a North Korean torpedo, and increased international sanctions that could follow, could further strain the economy and the regime. Kim Jong Il is expected to officially designate his son Kim Jong-Un as his successor in 2012.

Published December 5, 2011 | By Amangeldi Djumanaliev

Liberia’s incumbent President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf is the first and only female head of state in Africa since November 2005. With a solid background in the realm of international development and governance, she has pledged to curb corruption and advance both public sector and economic reforms. In 2011, she was jointly awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. In November 2011, she won re-election after the candidate for the CDC boycotted the second round of the poll claiming irregularities although all the monitoring groups declared the election free, fair and transparent. The government has since emphasized the importance of reconciliation by involving her political rivals in the government and by launching an independent inquiry into election-related violence. In 2006, a Truth and Reconciliation Commission was established to address the causes and crimes of the civil war. Among her latest initiatives are an Executive Order making education free and compulsory for all elementary school aged children, signing a Freedom of Information Bill into law, and attempts to suppress corruption. President Sirleaf has also vowed to reduce the national debt and decrease dependence on foreign aid. Thus far the new government has shown itself to be capable of improving the nation’s condition; however, it remains to be seen if a political transition can be made smoothly.

Published November 30, 2011 | By Amangeldi Djumanaliev and Raphaël Jaeger

Situated in a relatively volatile region of East Africa, sandwiched next to Rwanda and the restive eastern provinces of D. R. Congo, Burundi continues to be one of the world’s poorest countries. Since independence from Belgium, Burundi has been beset by ethnic conflict between the Tutsi minority (which owned most of the land and controlled the army and much of the economy) and the Hutu majority. The country has been characterized by repeated ethnic conflict, military coups, assassinations, and low-intensity civil wars. In May 2008, the government signed a ceasefire with the last active rebel group, formally ending the civil war. Recent arrests of journalists and opposition party members, and harassment of civil society have added to current concerns. The al Shabaab terrorist group has made threats to conduct terrorist attacks against Burundi in retaliation to Bujumbura’s decision to send 4,000 peacekeeping troops to Somalia.

Published November 30, 2011 | By Annie Janus and Raphaël Jaeger

Despite several notable improvements, many deep-seated issues continue to threaten Nigeria’s stability. Significant efforts to prevent fraud in the 2011 election nevertheless failed to prevent the eruption of post-election violence, which also plagued the 2003 and 2007 elections. Moreover, the 2011 elections exacerbated north-south religious and ethnic tensions, leaving the state vulnerable to further internal conflict. Inadequate healthcare, uneven distribution of wealth, and corruption also continue to undermine state capacity. President Goodluck Jonathan has promulgated his anti-corruption commitment, but the pervasiveness of corruption in Nigeria will make this a difficult task. Since most inter-communal conflicts are rooted in struggles for food, jobs, and land, economic reforms will be needed to mitigate these sources of instability.

Published November 30, 2011 | By Annie Janus and Tierney Anderson

Niger has faced severe drought and famine on multiple occasions, notably in 1974, 1995, 2005 and 2010. In the past such events often coincided with political upheaval, and 2010 was no different. After extending his term past constitutional limits, the then-president was overthrown in a military coup in February 2010. Although progress remains highly tenuous, there have been some positive signs: The military committee immediately acknowledged the ongoing famine, utilized food stores and embraced international aid and assistance. A new constitution was approved and internationally supervised free and fair elections were held in March of 2011. Despite democratic progress, northern Niger remains locked in a low level insurgency, whose local tribesman are affiliated with Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.

Published November 30, 2011 | By Ed Nagle and Raphaël Jaeger

While Kenya has made positive strides towards political stability and corruption reduction, both issues continue to be threats to its nascent democracy. Single party rule from 1963 to 2002 has only recently been replaced by a multi-party system and broad-based coalitions. Following inter-tribal political violence in the wake of the 2007 national elections, Kenya successfully passed a new constitution in 2010. Its passage marks a tremendous opportunity for Kenya. In particular, it is targeted at reducing the control of the provincial governments and shifting that authority to individual counties in the hopes of reducing corruption. Adding a second chamber to parliament and a bill of rights are also very positive steps but political affiliations and voting patterns remain strongly tied to tribal identities.

Published November 30, 2011 | By Colston Reid

Ethiopia enjoys the status of one of the most stable countries in Africa. Headed by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, his government has won support from the west for working to curb their reliance on foreign aid. However, opposition protesters content that the regime is intolerant to dissent. Ethiopia has one of the fastest growing non-oil based economies in Africa, nonetheless it is still heavily dependent on agriculture which is often affected by drought. Tensions with Eritrea persist since it broke away from Ethiopia is 1993. Neither side acknowledges the border established during the peace talks. As a key U.S. ally in the region, Ethiopian troops participated in joint operations during 2006 to oust Islamists militants in control of Southern Somalia. Their formal presence in the country ended in 2009.

Published November 30, 2011 | By Michael Berman and Raphaël Jaeger

After five decades of totalitarian military rule, the junta was dissolved in 2011 following a general election. Though the military continues to dominate politics, the civilian government has nevertheless rapidly implemented a series of reforms including the right to form trade unions, the release of some 6,000 political prisoners as well as easing media censorship and allowing the National League for Democracy party to participate the upcoming elections. The U.S. secretary of State’s visit to Naypyidaw in December 2011 was aimed to encourage President Thein Sein to deepen the reform process in Myanmar that has been approved to chair the ASEAN summit in 2014. Heavy government control of the state has arrested economic growth. Despite being resource rich, a lack of foreign investment, high inflation and deficits continue to restrict production. During 2010, Myanmar was devastated by Cyclone Nargis, which killed over 130,000 and displaced many more. Ethnic minorities continue to emigrate out of Myanmar and corruption pervades all levels of society, leading to a critical divide between elites, the working class, and minorities.

Published November 30, 2011 | By Jenna Torosian

Guinea-Bissau continues to struggle with political stability linked largely to the military. After the 2009 elections — that were deemed free and fair — mutinous soldiers detained the Prime Minster and Army Chief of Staff. The drug trade has increased, leading to more destabilization in the fragile country. Corruption is pervasive and rule of law is crumbling. International community members are pulling aid and restricting trade and travel to Guinea-Bissau. Assets in the U.S. and Europe belonging to high ranking government officials have been frozen because of their alleged direct links to the illegal narcotics trade. The country is still rebuilding from the civil war, and though some progress is being made in reconstruction, the country’s recovery will likely be long and difficult. Uncertainty is set to continue as the President Sanha struggles to manage the fragile balance of power with the military until the 2012 parliamentary elections.

Published November 24, 2011 | By Raphaël Jaeger

Since its independence from France in 1960, Madagascar has been frequently subject to disputed elections, social unrest and coups. On March 2009, after several weeks of tensions and riots, the mayor of the capital city Antananarivo, Andry Rajoelina toppled President Marc Ravalomanana in an army-backed coup that put the country on the brink of a major humanitarian crisis. Power was then handed to a military directorate amid violent street protests. International non-emergency aid has since been frozen although a Peace Road Map was signed in September 2011, with elections scheduled for March 2012. The unrest has also had a harmful effect on the economy in a country where 77% of the population live on less than $1 per day. After several previous flouted agreements and cancelled ballots, the High Transition Authority (HTA) urgently needs to increase its capacity and legitimacy by consolidating democracy to end the country's protracted leadership battle while 80% of the population lives without access to basic public services.

Published November 23, 2011 | By Tierney Anderson and Ed Nagle

Corruption and inequality is rampant throughout Guinea. Despite having at least 25% of the world’s known bauxite reserves (aluminum ore), substantial high quality iron ore, gold and uranium, Guinea remains one of the poorest, least developed countries in the world. After over 50 years of repression and dictatorship, Guinea held its first widely recognized free presidential elections in late 2010, which were absent of major violence. However, there are continuing political and ethnic tensions over the upcoming December legislative elections. Infrastructure and government institutions have historically been, and currently remain, woefully underdeveloped and are a major challenge for the new administration. The newly elected president, Alpha Condé, has taken steps to reform the mining code (Guinea’s major source of revenue) to prevent and punish corruption and reform the security sector. President Condé has also promised to rebuild Guinea’s transportation infrastructure and improve access to electricity and potable water.

Published November 14, 2011 | By Annie Janus and Raphaël Jaeger

Yemen’s performance has worsened for the 5th consecutive year. The situation has especially worsened recently, as the country has experienced significant turmoil since January 2011, when anti-government protestors began. Despite a violent response from the government, the protests have not abated. The situation has further deteriorated with divisions among tribal leaders in their support of President Saleh, resulting in clashes between the opposition and Saleh’s supporters. On 21 October 2011, the UN Security Council Resolution 2014 urged President Saleh to step down after human rights violations and the excessive use of force by the authorities against protesters supported by sections of the army. President Saleh has promised to step down, but has yet to do so. The instability is giving greater opportunity for human traffickers and smugglers while 400,000 refugees and IDPs are reported in Yemen. The country is also facing external intervention pressures, as the United States has recently intensified its covert war against the Yemen-based al Qaeda branch. Even when this period of turmoil calms, Yemen will still require long-term socio-political reforms and reconciliation efforts.

Published November 12, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford

In 2010, Parliament approved a package of wide-ranging constitutional reforms aimed at transferring key powers of the President to the Prime Minister. Improvements in indicators for group grievance and state legitimacy, although marginal, reflect these efforts. Massive floods in 2010 killed an estimated 2,000 people and affected more than 20 million. High water from monsoon rains in August and September 2011 have displaced an additional 1.8 million people and affected more than 5.4 million people in Sindh and Balochistan Provinces. Aided by U.S. funding, the Pakistani intelligence and security forces are fighting Taliban groups in remote sections of north-western Pakistan on the border with Afghanistan. Former President Musharraf declared rule by martial law in 2007, and this is yet to be rescinded by current President Zardari. Tensions with India over disputed territory in Kashmir often elicit concerns over war between two nuclear powers. High inflation, unemployment, and a youth bulge threaten future economic growth.

Published November 12, 2011 | By Ed Nagle

Despite the power-sharing agreement between ZANU-PF and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), Zimbabwe remains a highly unstable country, suffering from government repression, rigged elections, and poor economic performance. The power-sharing agreement has been undermined by arrests and intimidation of opposition leaders. The failure to fully implement the power-sharing agreement, and satisfactorily devolving power to Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai and the MDC, severely undermines the government’s credibility. ZANU-PF also continues to use the state security apparatus as a political tool to harass opposition voices. The creation of a friendlier business environment, capable of luring émigrés home and attracting foreign investment will be necessary to help improve the economy.