Published November 12, 2011 | By Annie Janus

Côte d’Ivoire has experienced significant destabilization as a result of the post-election crisis during 2010. Incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo’s refusal to cede power rekindled the country’s long-standing political, religious, and ethnic tensions. After approximately five months of fighting, Gbagbo agreed to transfer power to the internationally recognized president-elect, Alassane Ouattara. The political crisis has caused the country to return to a worsening trend after having improved in 2009 and 2010. With weakening governance and inflamed social tensions, the crisis has left the country vulnerable to a resurgence of violence. Concentrated efforts to improve governance, strengthen institutions, and invoke reconciliation processes will be needed to remediate the fragile condition of Côte d’Ivoire.

Published November 12, 2011 | By Kendall Lawrence

Afghanistan has ranked in the top ten on the Failed States Index for the past five years. The country faces many security challenges, including attacks on local and foreign security forces and widespread violence perpetrated by insurgent groups. Insurgents (often linked to the Taliban) and illegally armed groups continue to undermine efforts to forge a functioning government capable of providing access to basic necessities and public services. Pervasive political corruption and the prominence of drug lords seriously challenge state legitimacy. The government’s inability to control regions in which drug lords operate has made it difficult to combat the country’s robust drug trade and the growing black market. Until Afghanistan has the capacity to suppress its many security challenges, improved stability is unlikely.

Published November 12, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford

The Central African Republic remains one of the least stable countries in the world, with spillover from neighboring conflicts likely to continue to destabilize the area. The country’s economy has stagnated under poor policies since independence. A history of coups d’etat has destabilized the government and allowed the rest of the country to fall into disorder. The government is unable to exert any substantive control over the more remote provinces and poor infrastructure prevents effective rule within the areas the government does control. A truce between the government and rebel forces in June 2008 led to the establishment of a more inclusive coalition government in January 2009. However, the postponement by almost a year of elections originally scheduled for early 2010 has undermined trust in the government and highlighted problems with the country’s political polarization.

Published October 31, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford

The D.R. Congo continues to struggle, with poverty remaining widespread throughout the country and violence and instability continuing in the east. In addition to a lack of capacity, the Congolese security forces lack credibility due to their widespread human rights abuses. There is a need for the government to better hold accountable members of the security forces and to punish those who are committing human rights abuses. Fighting corruption, ending impunity of the security forces and creating a more capable and professional military are also key priorities. The need for increasing the capacity and legitimacy of government security forces has become increasingly urgent.

Published October 31, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford

Instability and violence continue to define Sudan. The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), signed in January 2005, granted a referendum on independence for Southern Sudan. The southern half of the country voted to secede from the north in January 2011 and Southern Sudan became an independent country on 9 July 2011. Initially, it was hoped that this may reduce sectarian violence between the Muslim-dominated North and the generally Christian and animist South, though new clashes are being reported, especially around the disputed town of Abyei. The discovery of oil in southern Sudan in 2005 exacerbated an already complex secession crisis and it remains to be seen how peaceful the planned separation will be. Violence also continues in Darfur, a region in western Sudan, sending refugees into central Sudan and also neighboring states, giving the conflict a regional dimension. Leaders in the North and the South will have to exercise restraint and restrict the use of violence by fringe rebel groups if the fragile peace is to be consolidated.

Published October 31, 2011 | By Colston Reid

Chad is currently threatened by regional and domestic instability. Rebel forces remain a destabilizing force in the country, though cross-border attacks between Sudanese and Chadian militias have decreased following a peace agreement between the two countries. Around half a million refugees and IDPs remain in the eastern region of Chad. The humanitarian crisis has been exacerbated by continued pressure on food and water supplies in the region. Although Chad’s oil revenues have the potential to contribute to poverty reduction, they are just as likely to be siphoned off by corrupt officials, perpetuating the Deby government’s illegitimacy and lack of accountability. The UN’s MINURCAT mission that was stationed in Chad (and the Central African Republic) withdrew from the country at the end of 2010, at the request of the Chadian government.

Published October 31, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford

Following the devastating earthquake in January 2010, Haiti’s situation has deteriorated rapidly, with complete dependence on international humanitarian relief and the significant presence of foreign peacekeepers. Haiti faces great challenges in rebuilding, a task further complicated by the country’s previously weak institutions and widespread extreme poverty. Haiti’s security forces are woefully unprepared to take over policing duties, and serious reforms will need to be implemented. Haiti’s government will find itself having to demonstrate its commitment to the rebuilding process. Similarly, efforts to stem political instability and factionalism to create a government capable of guiding the country through the disaster recovery will be crucial. Michel Martelly was elected president in May 2011, replacing René Préval who presided over the initial post-earthquake recovery effort.

Published October 21, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford

Despite the aggressive efforts of the international community and the United Nations, the situation in Somalia continues to deteriorate and the country remains at the very top of the Failed States Index. The absence of a permanent national government for almost twenty years has led to ongoing civil violence, economic hardship, poor social conditions, and the displacement of several million Somali citizens. It has become increasingly difficult for international agencies to provide aid to Somalia in light of the recent troubles with piracy and hostility towards foreigners. An upsurge of civil violence in the southern part of the nation has created further destabilization and threatens any potential improvements to Somalia’s condition. Marginal progress in 2010 is unlikely to be sustained unless the Transitional Federal Government manages to assert authority over powerful militant groups.

Published July 8, 2011 | By J. J. Messner, Nate Haken, Joelle Burbank and Kendall Lawrence

As a result of the January 2011 referendum for independence, South Sudan formally declared its autonomy from the Republic of Sudan on July 9. Amid the celebration, there is growing recognition that from the start, the world’s newest country is guaranteed to face enormous pressures both from within its territory and from across the border. Testing its legitimacy, the Government of South Sudan will face the challenge of accommodating minority groups struggling for representation and power within the new structure. At the same time, the state will need to establish control over the entire territory without violating the human rights of those groups which are loathe to integrate politically and militarily. Border skirmishes between the SPLA and northern forces are likely, which could implicate affinity groups that straddle both countries, further complicating the internal pressures cited above.  Disputes with the Republic of Sudan over oil revenues could prove combustible, with implications for development and security in South Sudan. These political and security issues will occur in the context of ethnic tensions, poverty, drought, disease, population displacement, rudimentary infrastructure, and inadequate essential service delivery.  It will take much work and support for the Republic of South Sudan to succeed.

Published July 6, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford

Georgia’s substantial score improvement in 2011 is encouraging for future reforms in the country. Successful political reforms and significant economic recovery boosted the state’s legitimacy. The country is improving across the board, demonstrating a steady recovery from political and economic setbacks in 2008 and 2009, and increasing its ability to attract foreign investment. However, the country still faces a number of challenges, including separatist movements, corruption, widespread poverty, shaky relations with Russia, and a large number of IDPs. Political tensions also remain a concern, as elites become increasingly split between supporters and opponents of President Saakashvili. The quality of the next elections will be crucial to determining Georgia’s continued improvement.

Published June 21, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford

Despite progress made by the RAMSI operation, the Solomon Islands continue to be plagued by weak political institutions and an underperforming economy, made worse by widespread corruption. These factors are undermining further reconciliation and peaceful development. The impending collapse of the logging industry, a key source of export revenue, could potentially trigger unrest and a renewal of conflict. Many Solomon Islanders also remain homeless after landslides and a tsunami. Continued Australian support, commitment to the Solomon Islands Government – RAMSI Partnership Framework, and continued success with the truth and reconciliation commission will contribute to any improvements of the situation.

Published May 20, 2011 | By Alessandra Wasserstrom

After having enjoyed a generally stable growth rate and a steady flow of European Union development funds during much of the previous decade, 2010 saw the Greek economy fall into a tailspin. The government has begun to institute strict austerity measures, in order to meet obligations to its creditors. This has led to an inevitable backlash from a hostile public, reluctant to incur the effects of public spending cuts. Greece has witnessed sporadic violent protests in response to the austerity program. Throughout 2010, Greece was beset with widespread strikes, protests and even some riots that have lasted multiple days at a time and have seriously disrupted daily life. Greece will likely continue to face ongoing economic — and as a result, social and political — instability for some time to come.

Published May 17, 2011 | By Kristen Blandford

Uruguay continues to be one of the more prosperous countries in South America, with solid economic growth, responsible economic and political policies, and a well-consolidated democracy. Progress continues to be made in the political arena as leaders have stuck to their promises to investigate human rights abuses committed during the country’s military dictatorship, further contributing to national unity and reconciliation. Major reforms in 2010 moved to improve the poor conditions in Uruguay’s prisons. However, Uruguay faces challenges with stabilizing its external debt and relatively high inflation rates. Reforms to address gender, sexual and racial discrimination and to relieve a backlogged judiciary are needed to further consolidate the country’s democracy. Despite these areas for improvement, Uruguay looks set to maintain economic, social, and political stability.

Published May 17, 2011 | By Alessandra Wasserstrom

Due to Tunisia’s strong economic connections to Europe, it has been hit hard by the economic recessions that has affected multiple European countries. This has created high unemployment and rising food prices and ultimately deep dissatisfaction and unrest amongst the people. This discontent came to the fore when protests erupted in December 2010, ultimately leading to the ouster of long-standing president, Zine Ben Ali. The resignation of Ben Ali has left a power vacuum as the Tunisian people struggle to find an appropriate form of governance to fill the gaping leadership hole while searching for a solution of their economic woes. Regional instability — not least the ongoing conflict across the border in Libya — will also continue to undermine Tunisia’s transition.