President Rafael Correa’s staunch socialist policies have put a strain on the country both economically and politically. Correa has angered both actors inside and outside the country, which has led to widespread protests throughout his two terms. Elected to his second term in 2009, Correa declared Ecuador’s default on billions of dollars in loans, adding to the countries economic pressures. Correa also extended his power via a referendum, undermining the legitimacy of the government. Tension between aggrieved unions and social groups and Correa supporters has steadily been rising, compounding the effects of continued uneven economic development. Correa faced an attempted coup in September 2010 and declared a state of emergency during this time.

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Indicator Scores

	Position													Total Score
2011	62 (177)	5.9	6.4	6.9	7.1	7.7	6.3	7.5	7.2	5.7	7.0	8.2	6.3	82.2
2010	69 (177)	6.3	6.1	6.4	7.5	8.0	6.7	7.4	7.0	5.8	6.6	7.8	6.1	81.7
2009	69 (177)	6.5	6.3	6.3	7.3	8.0	6.4	7.0	6.8	6.0	6.8	7.8	6.0	81.2
2008	68 (177)	6.2	6.0	6.5	7.3	7.8	5.9	7.1	6.8	6.4	6.7	7.9	5.7	80.3
2007	73 (177)	6.2	6.0	6.7	7.1	8.0	5.3	7.5	6.8	6.6	6.6	7.6	5.5	79.9

Core Five State Institutions

	Leadership	Military	Police	Judiciary	Civil Service
2011	weak	moderate	weak	weak	moderate

Basic Information

Context

Ecuador has struggled to get on track both politically and economically due to instability riddled throughout its history. In 1960, President Jose Maria Velasco Ibarra was ousted by the military for his leftist policy and rhetoric. Two military juntas and multiple military coups followed over the next 20 years. During this period, conservative economic and social policy was enacted. By the early 1980s the country was transitioning to a democracy but suffered great economic turmoil due to the sharp drop in oil prices. The country was hit with a huge economic crisis in throughout the 1990s as it became unable to pay back large loans. Another military coup in 2000 ousted the democratically elected President Jamil Muhuad. In 2007, free and fair elections were called in which social democrat Rafael Correa was elected. He has enacted many socialist policies since his elections, leading to significant opposition and an attempted coup in September, 2010.

Social Indicators

Ecuador suffered from a very damaging flood in 2009, which contributed both to internal displacement as well as issues with resettlement. Certain groups within Ecuador remain dissatisfied with their political situation, resulting in a the coup attempt in late 2010

Recent Improvements and Pressures

• Demographic Pressures decreased due to the recovery from intense flooding in 2009.
• Ecuador continues to have a refugee situation coming from the border that they share with Colombia due to the ongoing conflict between the Colombian government and the FARC.
• Ecuador faces many aggrieved groups as demonstrated by the attempted coup, orchestrated by dissatisfied police officers of Quito.
• Due to the economic instability, skilled workers continue to leave the country in large numbers.

Economic Indicators

Ecuador relies on the U.S. Dollar as its currency. Ecuador has benefited from American efforts to stimulate growth, allowing for more exports. Ecuador continues to have very polarized development between the rural areas, primarily populated by indigenous tribes, and urban districts

Recent Improvements and Pressures

• The Economic Decline score improved as GDP grew 3.7%, and estimates for growth in 2011 landed at 6.3%
• Lessened oil output even though the government nationalized all of its oil and natural gas production sites.

Political/Military Indicators

The Ecuadorean state has for a long time struggled to hold legitimacy in the eyes of the population, often due to the tendency for open displays of corruption and cronyism. President Correa has significantly delegitimized his government through the extension of his presidential term and continued support of traditional elites.

Recent Improvements and Pressures

• President Correa called a State of Emergency in September after police officers used tear-gas against him and appeared to attempt a coup. This incident contributed to the undermining of the state’s legitimacy.
• Public services remain mediocre as the country continues to be economically uneven.
• External intervention has decreased due to more border control on the Colombian-Ecuadorian border.

Latest Update: 2011-05-12 Alessandra Wasserstrom

Image: UNC

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