Despite slowed growth during the economic downturn and a drop in remittances, Mexico’s economy is slowly recovering. However, inequality and poverty remain high and human rights abuses by security forces remain an issue. Corruption is still a considerable problem. Drug-related killings and organized crime have increased significantly, undermining the country’s institutions. President Calderon’s war against the Mexican drug cartels has seen an intense escalation of violence, resulting in 15,000 deaths in 2010 alone. The government must do more to break the cartels’ hold on the country to restore order and security. Despite some success in this campaign, the situation remains extremely serious.

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Indicator Scores

	Position													Total Score
2011	94 (177)	6.5	4.2	6.1	6.5	7.7	6.0	6.6	5.8	5.9	7.9	5.2	6.7	75.1
2010	96 (177)	6.8	4.1	5.8	6.8	8.0	6.5	6.6	5.8	5.8	7.5	5.5	6.9	76.1
2009	98 (177)	7.0	4.3	5.9	7.0	7.4	6.9	6.6	8.0	5.6	5.2	4.3	6.7	75.5
2008	105 (177)	7.0	4.0	5.8	7.0	8.4	6.0	6.1	5.7	5.1	5.8	4.8	6.5	72.2
2007	102 (177)	6.9	4.0	6.1	7.0	8.4	6.2	6.1	5.7	5.1	6.1	4.8	6.2	72.6

Core Five State Institutions

	Leadership	Military	Police	Judiciary	Civil Service
2011	moderate	moderate	weak	weak	moderate

Basic Information

Context

Mexico proclaimed its independence in 1810 and established a republic in 1824. Following a revolution in the early 20th century, the Institutional Revolutionary Party was established in 1917 and dominated the government for the next 70 years. In the 2000 elections, Vicente Fox from the conservative National Action Party (PAN), became the first modern opposition candidate ever to win the presidency, breaking the one-party system. In 2006, Felipe Calderón, another PAN member, succeeded Fox as president in a closely contested race. He has focused his presidency on reducing poverty and combating organized crime and corruption. In December 2006, President Calderon launched a war against the Mexican drug cartels, whose power has become a serious threat to the security of the state. It has resulted in at least 35,000 related deaths since 2006, and required the deployment of 45,000 troops and 5,000 federal agents throughout the country.

Social Indicators

A large food importer, Mexico has experienced pressure in recent years from increasing food prices. High levels of emigration to the U.S. have played an important role in Mexico’s demographic shifts.

Recent Improvements and Pressures

• Mexico’s Refugees and IDPs score worsened slightly in 2010. Escalating drug-cartel violence has forced many people from their homes in Chihuahua and Tamaulipas.
• The Group Grievance score increased 0.3 points, reflecting the indigenous population’s increasing frustration with widespread patterns of discrimination and poverty.
• The FSI Human Flight score improved for 2011, largely due to decreased and reverse emigration between the U.S. and Mexico following the economic downturn.

Economic Indicators

Mexico’s economy has grown significantly after overcoming years of stagnation, and in 2010 showed recovery from the effects of the global solution. Remittances from émigrés make up a significant portion of the Mexican economy.

Recent Improvements and Pressures

• Mexico’s Uneven Development score improved 0.3 points. Decreases in overall remittances lessened disparities in income between previous recipients and non-recipients. However, income inequality remains very high.
• The Poverty and Decline score decreased 0.5 points, reflecting the country’s 5% growth in GDP.
• Increasing disruptions from drug cartel-related violence could undermine economic recovery in the coming year.

Political/Military Indicators

The 2000 and 2006 presidential elections have set a precedent that has put the country on the path to true multiparty democracy. However, The Mexican government is under increasing pressure to dismantle the drug cartels and restore order. If the government is unable to protect its citizens from the violence, it stands to lose much in the way of legitimacy. Corruption and lack of transparency remain rampant within the government, especially in local governments, the judiciary, and the police force. Serious reforms are needed to repair Mexico’s fragile institutions.

Recent Improvements and Pressures

• The State Legitimacy score remained constant at 7.7, though public tolerance for Caledrón’s strategy is tenuous.
• The Human Rights score worsened slightly, reflecting ongoing abuses committed against citizens
• Mexico’s Security Apparatus score increased due to increasing violence between the Army and the cartels, which has seen civilians caught in the crossfire. Mexico’s police are notoriously corrupt and act with impunity.
• The Factionalized Elites score improved 0.3 points, demonstrating the PAN and PRI’s relative success in cooperating in Mexico’s tense security climate.
• Mexico’s External Intervention score decreased slightly, though U.S. military assistance remains high.

Latest Update: 2011-05-13 Kristen Blandford

Image: J.J. Messner

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