Serbia has made significant progress in recent years, as it has seriously pursued social, economic, and political reforms in order to continue its progress towards eligibility for E.U. membership. However, there remain areas of concern which have the potential to reverse Serbia’s progress toward stability. In order to sustain economic development, the country will need to address unemployment problems while managing its external debt and pursue tax reform. In addition, political polarization, corruption and the impunity of organized criminal groups could threaten the country’s institutional strength. The issue of Kosovo’s independence — and its acceptance or not by Serbia —will continue to influence Serbia’s international legitimacy and regional stability. Serbia’s transition will rest on its ability to maintain momentum for reforms.

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Indicator Scores

	Position													Total Score
2011	97 (177)	5.3	6.4	7.5	5.0	6.5	5.7	6.5	4.9	5.3	6.5	8.0	6.8	74.4
2010	86 (177)	5.6	6.9	7.8	5.3	6.9	6.2	6.8	5.2	5.6	6.5	8.0	7.0	77.8
2009	78 (177)	5.8	7.3	7.9	5.5	7.4	5.9	7.3	5.2	5.8	6.3	7.9	6.9	79.2
2008	70 (177)	6.0	7.3	7.9	5.5	7.5	6.5	7.4	5.0	6.1	6.3	8.0	6.6	80.1
2007	66 (177)	6.0	8.0	7.7	5.5	7.7	6.5	7.5	5.0	6.1	6.3	8.0	6.8	81.1

Core Five State Institutions

	Leadership	Military	Police	Judiciary	Civil Service
2011	weak	moderate	weak	weak	moderate

Basic Information

Context

A former province of the Yugoslav Republic, the dissolution of this state after the Cold War launched the region into a bloody conflict marred by ethnic cleansing until the signing of the Dayton Peace Accords in 1995. In 1997, the KLA insurgency began in the Kosovo province, leading then president Slobodan Milosevic to unleash a brutal military and police campaign which resulted in many atrocities committed against civilians. Mass protests following a fraudulent election in 2002 forced Milosevic to concede defeat. The Serbia-Montenegro joint state dissolved in 2006 after Montenegro declared its independence. Kosovo declared its independence in early 2008, which Serbia has not formally recognized. Some progress has been made on prosecuting former officials for war crimes, but the influence of organized crime groups remains a concern. Serbia submitted a formal application to join the E.U. in late 2009.

Social Indicators

Serbia is prone to earthquakes and desertification, which complicated agricultural yields during the years of conflict. Thousands of refugees and IDPs still remain in Serbia years after displacement.

Recent Improvements and Pressures

• Serbia’s Demographic Pressures score improved reflecting increased investment in the agricultural sector.
• The Refugees and IDPs score decreased as IDPs and refugees remaining in Kosovo no longer contributed to Serbia’s score.
• The Group Grievances score decreased as the government cooperatively engaged Croatia and Bosnia in reconciliation efforts.
• The Human Flight score declined due to Serbia’s continued progress towards eligibility for E.U. membership.

Economic Indicators

Following years of mismanagement and damage sustained during NATO airstrikes, Serbia’s economy has recovered significantly. The government has instituted widespread economic reforms following its bid for E.U. membership, including stabilization measures, liberalization and market reforms, and policies to increase exports.

Recent Improvements and Pressures

• The Uneven Development score declined as the government increased public spending for unemployment, pensions and salaries to offset stagnation after the global financial crisis.
• Serbia’s Poverty and Decline score improved due to export expansion and a friendly environment for foreign direct investment.

Political/Military Indicators

Serbia’s government has made significant progress in instituting political reforms. However, political polarization, intimidation by criminal organizations, and corruption remain obstacles to the country’s democratic consolidation. While the country has been working toward reconciliation with its neighbors, it has failed to capture wanted war criminals Ratko Mladic and Goran Hadzic, and discrimination towards minorities, including Roma and Albanians, remains a concern.

Recent Improvements and Pressures

• The Legitimacy of the State score improved 0.3 points as the country made progress toward E.U. membership.
• Serbia’s Public Services score improved as the country increased infrastructural investment in rural areas.
• The Human Rights score improved due to the continued prosecution of former officials and military officers for war crimes, while the government condemned atrocities committed in Bosnia and Croatia during the war.
• The Security Apparatus score remained at 6.5. The effectiveness of the police is inconsistent, and impunity continues to be a problem, though police internal investigation seems to be improving.
• The External Intervention score decreased as public spending to offset economic stress increased external debt.

Latest Update: 2011-05-13 Kristen Blandford

Image: Stock

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