Despite the aggressive efforts of the international community and the United Nations, the situation in Somalia continues to deteriorate and the country remains at the very top of the Failed States Index. The absence of a permanent national government for almost twenty years has led to ongoing civil violence, economic hardship, poor social conditions, and the displacement of several million Somali citizens. It has become increasingly difficult for international agencies to provide aid to Somalia in light of the recent troubles with piracy and hostility towards foreigners. An upsurge of civil violence in the southern part of the nation that began in early 2009 has created further destabilization and threatens any potential improvements to Somalia’s poor condition.

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Indicator Scores

	Position													Total Score
2010	1 (177)	9.6	10.0	9.7	8.3	8.0	9.6	10.0	9.6	9.9	10.0	10.0	9.6	114.3
2009	1 (177)	9.8	9.9	9.7	8.5	7.7	9.5	10.0	9.9	9.9	10.0	10.0	9.8	114.7
2008	1 (177)	9.8	9.8	9.5	8.3	7.5	9.4	10.0	10.0	9.9	10.0	10.0	10.0	114.2
2007	3 (177)	9.2	9.8	10.0	9.0	9.1	7.7	10.0	9.5	10.0	9.9	9.7	9.8	113.7
2006	7 (177)	9.0	8.1	8.0	7.0	7.5	8.5	10.0	10.0	9.5	10.0	9.8	8.5	105.9

Core Five State Institutions

	Leadership	Military	Police	Judiciary	Civil Service
2010	Poor	Poor	Poor	Poor	Poor

Basic Information

Context

A nation forged out of former French and British colonies, Somalia experienced over twenty years of dictatorship under Mohamed Siad Barre before collapsing into conflict and anarchy in 1991. Armed opposition movements, which had emerged in the country after Barre’s disastrous campaign in Ogaden in 1977, fought a bloody war for control of the state. The Islamic Courts Union (ICU), formed of supporters of the Islamic courts that sprang up as a substitute for an absent judicial system, rose to prominence in the late 1990s. In 2000, Djibouti facilitated a reconciliation deal in which the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) was established, though it has been unable to assert authority in the country. Concerned about the growing influence of the ICU, Ethiopian forces invaded Somalia in 2006 and dismantled it. The Al-Shabaab movement broke from the remnants of the ICU and has seized large parts of the south. Ethiopia withdrew its troops in 2009 as attacks from militias intensified. The TFG’ s mandate was extended to 2011 in the same year. Somalia looks likely to remain highly unstable for some time to come.

Social Indicators

Somalia’s conflict has displaced an estimated 2 million people since 1991 and destroyed much of the country’s agricultural infrastructure. Clan-based identities have fragmented the population and led to competition between clans.

Recent Improvements and Pressures

• The Demographic Pressures score improved slightly as food security and water supplies improved with adequate rainfall.
• The Refugees and IDPs score increased incrementally to the highest possible score as conflicts in the south worsened in 2009.
• Somalia’s Group Grievance score remained high, reflecting inter-clan violence.
• The Human Flight score declined slightly. Many Somalis cannot afford to leave and have retreated into clan-based groups for security.

Economic Indicators

The absence of a government since 1991 and constant conflict has completely undermined Somalia’s formal economy. Despite these challenges, Somalia’s GDP was estimated at $5.75 billion for 2009. Large exports of livestock, telecommunications and wire transfer businesses to handle remittances contribute significantly to the economy.

Recent Improvements and Pressures

• The Uneven Development score worsened significantly as conflict renewed in the south. As the autonomous Somaliland and Puntland regions develop, disparities between these regions and the rest of Somalia will increase.
• The Poverty and Economic Decline score increased slightly as conflict renewed, undermining economic activity in the south.

Political/Military Indicators

Somalia has not had a central government since 1991, leading to an environment of lawlessness and impunity. Infighting between clans for political and economic power continues to undermine attempts at establishing a unified national identity, despite the country’s relative ethnic and religious homogeneity. The country’s instability and violence has resulted in gross human rights abuses, and has undermined attempts to deliver international aid to those in need.

Recent Improvements and Pressures

• Somalia’s Legitimacy of the State score has remained consistently at 10.0 since 2005, given the absence of a legitimate governing authority.
• The Public Services score improved 0.3 points, as more telecommunications infrastructure was installed in the relatively stable northern regions of Somaliland and Puntland.
• The Human Rights score remained exceedingly high as the anarchic environment allowed for widespread abuses.
• The Factionalized Elites score remained at the highest possible levels as various factions continue to fight for political control.
• The External Intervention score declined slightly as international aid funding to Somalia decreased.

Latest Update: 2010 Kristen Blandford

Image: Milton Grant/UN

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