Due to Tunisia’s strong economic connections to Europe, it has been hit hard by the economic recessions that has affected multiple European countries. This has created high unemployment and rising food prices and ultimately deep dissatisfaction and unrest amongst the people. This discontent came to the fore when protests erupted in December 2010, ultimately leading to the ouster of long-standing president, Zine Ben Ali. The resignation of Ben Ali has left a power vacuum as the Tunisian people struggle to find an appropriate form of governance to fill the gaping leadership hole while searching for a solution of their economic woes. Regional instability — not least the ongoing conflict across the border in Libya — will also continue to undermine Tunisia’s transition.

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Indicator Scores

	Position													Total Score
2011	108 (177)	5.5	3.4	5.6	5.2	6.6	5.0	7.2	5.3	7.7	7.0	6.8	4.8	70.1
2010	118 (177)	5.7	3.4	5.4	5.2	7.0	5.0	6.4	5.7	7.5	6.5	6.0	3.7	67.5
2009	121 (177)	5.9	3.2	5.4	5.3	7.2	4.9	6.6	6.1	7.4	6.2	6.0	3.4	67.6
2008	122 (177)	5.6	3.4	5.1	5.1	7.2	4.3	6.6	5.9	7.3	5.9	6.2	3.0	65.6
2007	122 (177)	5.6	3.4	5.1	5.1	7.4	4.3	6.4	5.9	7.3	5.9	6.2	3.0	65.6

Core Five State Institutions

	Leadership	Military	Police	Judiciary	Civil Service
2011	weak	moderate	weak	weak	moderate

Basic Information

Context

The Republic of Tunisia declared its independence from France in 1957. It was then ruled for 31 years by the Neo Destour party, led by Habib Bourguiba. Bourguiba has become known as the “Atatürk of Tunisia” for his effective modernization of the country including economic reform, uprooting Islamic fundamentalists and establishing women’s rights unmatched in the region. Widespread protests in 1983 swept the nation over IMF sanctions that caused both high food costs and unemployment. In 1987, President Bourguiba was declared unfit and Zine Ben Ali took over the presidency. While Tunisia enjoyed economic growth and high quality of life under his rule, his regime was known for its harsh repressive action and fear tactics. When food prices and unemployment soared in 2010 due to the worldwide economic recession, extensive protests once again ousted the president. Currently, the country’s interim government is implementing democratic reforms.

Social Indicators

As Tunisia is an advanced developing country, it has relatively good scores in all of the social indicators as there has been no demographic pressures that have led to extensive displaced people or human flight. Similarly, while there have been significant grievances, they are not specific to one group, hence Tunisia is still performing well in in terms of group grievance ranking.

Recent Improvements and Pressures

• Tunisia’s Demographic Pressures score improved as the water supply improved.
• The Refugees and IDPs score remained relatively low at 3.4. Tunisia, like much of the Mahgreb, is a transit point for many migrants and asylum-seekers from sub-Saharan Africa.
• Group Grievance worsened slightly, indicating the beginnings of the mass protests that were to ensue in the late part of 2010 until mid January 2011.

Economic Indicators

While the Tunisian economy continues to grow at a steady rate, the rate of development in certain sectors remains uneven. Tunisia has very high rates of youth unemployment, putting the country at risk of civil disorder from a significant population of restless, disaffected youth.

Recent Improvements and Pressures

• While Tunisia’s Uneven Development score seems to have improved slightly, widespread youth unemployment remains a problem.
• Tunisia’s diversified economy continued to grow despite the global recession and a slight decrease in tourism.

Political/Military Indicators

Zine Ben Ali’s regime was known for harsh political repression and distinct militaristic repression of civil rights and freedom of speech. Throughout 2010, journalists continued to be intimidated and arrested, and some even disappeared. Other human rights violations occurred throughout the year, including a law that was introduced to parliament that attempted to further limit the voice of the political opposition. Additionally, protests that broke out in late 2010 were met by Ben Ali’s security forces, which eventually responded with violence. Ben Ali was later pressured to resign from office.

Recent Improvements and Pressures

• Tunisia’s Legitimacy of the State score jumped drastically as protestors took to the streets to protest lack of economic opportunity for youth and widespread corruption.
• The Human Rights and Security Apparatus scores worsened drastically due to ongoing government corruption throughout the year in addition to Ben Ali’s force’s violent response to protests.
• The government enacted political repression through both legislative action and actual physical violence during the protests, which worsened the factionalized elite score by 0.8.
• A €194 million EU loan to Tunisia in January 2010 dramatically increased the External Intervention score.

Latest Update: 2011-05-17 Alessandra Wasserstrom

Image: stock

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