Published December 10, 2012 | By Nate Haken, Filipa Carreira, Elizaveta Egorova, Rachel Hersh

Not every explosion in northern Nigeria stems from the radicalism of Boko Haram. Nor is every outbreak of violence in the Niger Delta the result of militants fighting over oil revenues. Rather, violence in its different forms is an expression of a broader and deeper fabric of social, economic, political, and security challenges. Given the wrong set of underlying conditions, collective violence can spark seemingly out of nowhere, whether or not there is a formal paramilitary group active in the region. Even when such organizations do not exist, in an area with past and current episodes of insecurity, latent structures may still be there, to be crystallized at a moments notice--in the event of a political contest, land dispute, turf warfare, or chieftaincy tussle.  Violence can sometimes be self-organizing.  Just add water.

The government’s amnesty program in the Niger Delta has been partially successful. Attacks by militants on oil facilities and state assets have been much reduced. However, since 2009, organized insurgency in the Niger Delta has morphed into a situation of general lawlessness — abductions, murders, gang violence, intra-communal violence, land disputes, mob justice, and political thuggery. Meanwhile, in the North, ethnic and sectarian violence has polarized communities causing some to migrate into religious enclaves out of fear. During the period of May-October 2012, there were bombings in Kaduna and large scale communal violence in Plateau. In addition to the shifting patterns of violence in the North and the South, there were also devastating floods — Nigeria’s worst in 40 years — which further exacerbated pressure on the state’s ability to manage conflict risk.

Published November 8, 2012 | By Kendall Lawrence, Nate Haken, Patricia Taft, Nóra Loncsár

On April 26, 2012, the International Criminal Court convicted Liberia’s former president Charles Taylor for his role in the commission of crimes against humanity during the war in Sierra Leone in the 1990s. For Sierra Leone, this brought a dark chapter to a close — and for Liberia as well.

From 1989 to 1990, Charles Taylor and Prince Johnson fought to overthrow then-president Samuel Doe. After Johnson captured and killed Doe (sipping a Budweiser as he chopped off his ears), he and Taylor fought a bloody war for control of Monrovia. Taylor eventually took power, but the country was plunged into a civil war that lasted until 2003 when peacekeepers were deployed and Taylor was exiled to Nigeria.

Researchers from The Fund for Peace (FFP) and Liberia Democracy Watch (LDW) were present in Gbarnga, Taylor’s erstwhile base of operations, for a conflict assessment workshop on the day of the conviction. Riot police and UNMIL forces were deployed en masse, standing by in the event of protest. However, time had apparently passed Taylor by. People went about their businesses. “It’s over,” one person said.

Published June 27, 2012 | By Nate Haken, Natalie Manning, Megan Turner, Amelia Whitehead

As Goodluck Jonathan begins his new term as President of Nigeria, he faces many challenges. Even as a fragile peace takes hold in the Niger Delta, gang violence and criminality continue unabated. In the North, Boko Haram, an Islamist terrorist group, continues to wreak havoc. Though the government has taken some steps towards strengthening the democratic process, instances of corruption and vote rigging have been reported at the state and local levels over the past seven months. The Nigerian government, civil society, and other stakeholders must take steps to address these governance and security issues, or risk further instability in the future.

This report compiles the incidents and issues documented by civil society representatives in the UNLocK Nigeria early warning network from October 2011 to April 2012, with a particular focus on the state and local government area levels of Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Delta and Kaduna.

Incidents and issues summarized here include election irregularities surrounding gubernatorial elections, such as political corruption and intimidation, as well as social and economic pressures relating to land competition, group grievance and violent crime. These incidents and issues are categorized according to the Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST) framework, which allows for a holistic evaluation of the pressures on society and the state that could increase the risk of instability.

Published June 11, 2012 | By K. Lawrence, N. Haken, P. Taft, T. Anderson, S. Levine

The year 2011 was an illuminating period with respect to pressures and resilience in Liberia. Early in the year, Liberia experienced significant social pressures from abroad as neighboring Cote d’Ivoire descended into a major political crisis sending thousands of refugees into Nimba and Grand Gedeh counties. Then, internally, Liberia experienced heightened political pressure as the election season peaked in November. Despite this dangerous confluence of conflict drivers and triggers, there were no major outbreaks of violence during the year. Liberia was able to weather external shocks and internal pressure, reinforcing the notion that the country has come a long way since 2004. This report takes a look at Nimba and Montserrado counties within the broader national context, in terms of pressures and resilience throughout 2011 and beyond. It draws on data generated by local civil society networks, from automated content analysis data (from a sample of 28,634 news articles), and a qualitative review of the data, informed by field visits and desktop research.

Published January 11, 2012 | By Joelle Burbank, Nate Haken, Erin Crandell, Julie Andrus

Incumbent president and recent Nobel laureate Ellen Johnson Sirleaf was declared the winner of the runoff election held on November 8th, 2011. After asserting that the October 8th election was not as fair as the United Nations and other international bodies declared it to be, opposition leader Winston Tubman and his supporters boycotted the run-off election, resulting in a turnout that was only about 37% of the voting age population, and almost half of the turnout in the October 8th election.

This is the second election held in Liberia after years of civil war, and this is the first to be overseen by an independent Liberian election board. While international observers declared the election to be free and fair, there were multiple reports gathered during the June to November period of intimidation of political opponents, election irregularities and government corruption. In this atmosphere, the boycott further undermines the perceived legitimacy of the government in the eyes of the local population.

Published October 28, 2011 | By Nate Haken, Tierney Anderson, Julie Andrus, Erin Crandell

Nigeria’s election in April 2011 represented a huge step forward with respect to democratization. However, there was significant resistance on the part of vested interests, which led to an escalation of many conflict risk factors at the local and national levels in the subsequent five months. Nigerian stakeholders in government, civil society, and private sectors must not rest on their laurels after this relatively successful election. Doing so would risk losing all that has been gained.

This report compiles the incidents and issues documented by civil society representatives in the UNLocK Nigeria early warning network from April -September 2011, with a particular focus on the state and local government area levels of Akwa Ibom, Rivers, Bayelsa, and Kaduna. There is a two month period of overlap between this report and the last, which covered December 2010-May 2011. The reason for this overlap is that UNLocK participants met in September for a workshop, adding considerably to the data compiled on events in April and May. Rather than archive that newly collected data, we wanted to include it in this report for a fuller picture of the landscape as perceived by the early warning network.

Published October 4, 2011
By Nate Haken, Tierney Anderson, Julie Andrus, Erin Crandell
Publication CUUGR1125
Report available in PDF and Flash formats

In February, Ugandans reelected President Museveni to a fifth term in office by a landslide. A few weeks after the election, massive protests over the government’s management of the economy broke out in cities across the country and sometimes turned violent. Since then, the protests have subsided, but food prices remain high and segments of the population still feel politically disenfranchised. This context poses a challenge to continued progress for democracy and human rights in Uganda.

This report is a summary of incidents and issues from May to August 2011, with a special focus on pastoral conflict in Karamoja and land conflict in Acholi, as reported by a network of local civil society representatives who have been using FFP’s Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST) since 2008. The project engages local civil society for better conflict assessment, early warning, and prevention.

Published August 16, 2011 | By Joelle Burbank, Nate Haken, Colston Reid

For the second time since the end of their devastating civil war, Liberian voters will go to the polls to democratically elect their president. The general election, scheduled for October 2011, will decide the presidency, all seats in the House of Representatives, and half the seats in the Senate. Although Liberia has come a long way since the end of the civil war, many challenges remain, including corruption, weak public services, and crime. Liberia has also been affected by external factors such as spillover from the recent violence in neighboring Cote d’Ivoire. Many people, both in Liberia and abroad, see the upcoming elections as an important test of Liberia’s progress towards democracy and stability.

This report is a summary of incidents and issues from February to May 2011, as reported by a network of local civil society representatives in Liberia who have been trained in conflict assessment. The project engages local civil society for better conflict assessment, early warning, and prevention.

Publication CR-11-19-UL
Published June 30, 2011
By Nate Haken, Kendall Lawrence

Despite a relatively smooth election in February—not violent by historical standards—stability in Uganda appeared a little shaky during the period of January-April 2011. Although there were reports of some irregularities and the use of state funds to shore up the incumbency, overall the election itself was considered reasonably free, if less than fair. Opposition candidates refused to concede defeat. Then, after a failed attempt to inspire popular protest against the election results, the opposition successfully mobilized a massive campaign of protests in multiple cities against rising food and fuel prices. This was seen as a demonstration of popular discontent with the effectiveness of government. These protests went on for days and frequently became violent. Several people were shot dead and hundreds were reportedly arrested during these protests.

Publication CR-11-18-UL
Published June 22, 2011
By Nate Haken, Annie Janus

Nigeria’s national and state elections, held in April of this year were rightly praised as the freest and fairest of Nigeria’s history. But that success was not necessarily tangible to everyone on the ground. As reported by local civil society organizations in the UNLocK early warning network, there were significant problems before, during, and after the elections, including ballot box snatching, vote buying, and a lot of political violence. These ongoing problems need to be recognized and addressed for this successful election to be consolidated as a turning point for democracy in Nigeria.

Publication CR-11-08-UL
Report available in PDF and Flash formats

The period of August—December 2010 was a very political season in Uganda, with the NRM (National Resistance Movement) primaries in August, the nomination of presidential candidates in October, followed by the beginning of the campaigns for the February 2011 elections. Thus, as could be expected, there was a sharp increase in reports coming from the UNLocK participants relating to political factors. Whereas in the previous five months there were relatively few reports relating to state legitimacy, this issue, particularly incidents of corruption and election irregularities, were reported frequently by participants from August to December. There were fears expressed about the potential for election violence, especially considering the 2009 and 2010 riots in Kampala, which some felt could be reignited in the heat of the contest. However, although there were a few reports of violence and intimidation, this was less of an issue in the run-up to the election than many had anticipated, especially as compared with previous Ugandan elections.

Publication CR-11-13-UL
Report available in PDF and Flash formats

Elections are important for the renewal of the social contract between the people and their government.  But that process of renewal can be rocky, as was vividly illustrated in Côte d’Ivoire in late 2010.  In light of how difficult elections can be, the Fund for Peace has been working with civil society in Nigeria, Liberia, and Uganda for improved local capacity in communication and conducting situational assessments in the run-up to 2011 elections.  The Ugandan election took place on February 18, the Liberian election is scheduled for October, and the Nigerian election is scheduled for April, 2011. This report, the latest in a series of reports on Liberia, analyses events in the country during 2010 and examines some of the challenges that face Liberia in the lead-up to the 2011 presidential elections.

Publication CR-11-09-UL
Report available in PDF and Flash formats

During the period covered by this report (August-November 2010) the election season was getting under way. This report compiles the incidents and issues documented by civil society in the UNLocK Nigeria early warning network, with a particular focus on the state and local levels in the Niger Delta region. According to these incident reports, candidates reportedly engaged in intimidation against their opponents. Candidates and their family member were kidnapped or killed. Criminal and vigilante elements were reportedly co-opted or recruited for political reasons. Officials were accused of corruption. The government’s rebel amnesty program continued to falter due in part to ambiguity and controversy over who is eligible to participate. Floods destroyed homes and poverty.