Conflict Prevention and
Recovery Program

Clear analysis of shifting internal dynamics, especially in areas of conflict, is difficult in today's fast-paced world. Will Indonesia stabilize? Is Russia heading for state collapse? Will Montenegro be the next Kosovo? Is Zimbabwe about to implode?

Whether trying to make decisions about business investments or military intervention in a country, decide on the best use of limited organizational resources among competing alternatives, or anticipate and assess the potential for conflict, there is a need to know what is happening on the ground and to evaluate that information in a systematic and coherent way.

The Fund for Peace analytical model of internal conflict and state collapse enables analysts and decision-makers to have a broader and deeper understanding of the complicated interaction within a given society and to measure progress over time. It provides the concrete conceptual and analytical skills needed for an integrated and practical approach. It also offers a methodology to anticipate, assess and manage conflict situations. And it develops analysts' capacity for both conflict early warning and assessment of recovery for informed decision-making.

The model provides a common methodology, indicators and measures of breakdown and recovery, operational guidelines, and warnings about unanticipated events that can disrupt a peace process or cause instability. The methodology includes four principal components:

• The conceptual framework, which tracks a conflict through five stages
• Twelve top indicators of internal conflict and state collapse
• Suggested measures, or data, to evaluate those indicators
• A definable standard of determining "sustainable security" in a country at risk

These components promote unity of effort, interagency coordination, clarity of mission and measures of effectiveness for achieving the central objective of creating "sustainable security." This can be the basis for developing a military "exit strategy," a business "entry strategy" or a governmental or multinational "reconstruction strategy."

The FFP model may be used at any point in the life cycle of a conflict -- before, during, and after violence -- and by any organization involved in intervention. It may be used in complex organizations -- multinational alliances (e.g., NATO), international organizations (e.g., the Organization of African Unity), or interagency task forces (e.g. Military Force on Bosnia or Kosovo) -- to better coordinate various actors involved in a common mission to compare different situations within a region. It helps to build stronger assessment skills that are essential to decision-makers in an age of globalization and information overload.

The Fund for Peace offers software development, staff training, and individual country assessments using its copyrighted, original methodology. For more information about the model and other analytical tools, please contact:

Pauline H. Baker
The Fund for Peace
1701 K Street, NW
Washington, DC 20006
e-mail: pbaker@fundforpeace.org