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A schematic diagram of the conceptual framework is depicted
in a downloadable figure. (The figure is available either as
a PDF file, 62k, or
a GIF file, 27k. Both
will open in a new browser window.) This provides a way to monitor a
conflict as it deteriorates, or recovers to a point of
sustainable security. It outlines five stages of
conflict and a major decision point, with the potential role
of the international community indicated at the bottom of
each stage, below the dotted line. It should be noted
that a society may teeter between stages, a fluidity
that is depicted by arrows between the stages.
The process begins in Stage 1, with an analysis of the
root causes of internal conflict, including the historical
background, socio-economic composition, and the
environment that predisposes a society toward fragmentation.
Stage 2 identifies particular recent or precipitating events
that lead a state from fragmentation to friction, such
as discriminatory policies, collapsed empires, coups
d'etat or political assassinations. Preventive action
would be most effective if implemented in this stage or before.
Between Stages 2 and 3 is a critical decision point.
In the movement toward state collapse and internal conflict,
the decision point highlights how local elites are
able to push a state in a violent or non-violent direction
toward transition and transformation. In reality, there
are many decision points in the course of a conflict,
but a major threshold is often reached. At this phase,
decision makers are at a point of no return. What
they do will determine whether the country progresses
violently or non-violently.
Stage 3 is the period of state transition. Once a
country has reached Stage 3, it has been fundamentally altered
and cannot return to the status quo ante. If the transition
is violent, the state may face full scale conflict,
secession, ethnic cleansing and/or disintegration. If the
transition is non-violent, the state may engage in
negotiations, reforms and/or power-sharing. Either way,
the state is in transition toward becoming a new entity or entities.
In Stage 4, the state is transformed. If there was a
violent transformation, it may result in a military victory,
ethnic domination, warlordism or unresolved conflict (e.g. Somalia).
If there was a non-violent transformation, it may result
in elections, peaceful partition, conflict resolution or
new state structures (e.g. South Africa).
Stage 5 represents the outcome, depicted as a continuum
between chaos and constitutionalism. There are many
outcomes that fall within the two poles of this
continuum, including military rule, a one-party state
and a negotiated representative federal system. Reaching
this stage, however, does not mean the end of the process.
The state can move up or down on the continuum in Stage 5,
or it can backslide or relapse to an earlier stage, if the
peace is too fragile or the institutional core too weak to sustain it.
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