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Indicators enable an analyst to assess the risk of
collapse or violence in a state at any given moment during its
progression through the model. Collectively, they provide a
snapshot of the condition of a state at one moment in time.
Succeeding snapshots can be used to assess historical trends,
i.e., whether conditions are getting better or worse.
Social Indicators
- Mounting demographic pressures.
- Massive movement of refugees or internally displaced
persons creating complex humanitarian emergencies.
- Legacy of vengeance-seeking group grievance or group paranoia.
- Chronic and sustained human flight.
Economic Indicators
- Uneven economic development along group lines.
- Sharp and/or severe economic decline.
Political/Military Indicators
- Criminalization and/or delegitimization of the state.
- Progressive deterioration of public services.
- Suspension or arbitrary application of the rule of
law and widespread violation of human rights.
- Security apparatus operates as a "state within a state".
- Rise of factionalized elites.
- Intervention of other states or external political actors.
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