Threat Convergence:
Possible New Pathways to WMD Proliferation?

Experts agree that the three biggest security threats facing the world today are Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) proliferation, global terrorism and the problem of weak, failing or fragile states. A fourth is now emerging: threat convergence.

To address this emerging threat, The Fund for Peace has begun a multi-year project entitled, "Threat Convergence," to bring together leading experts in three security fields - WMD proliferation, terrorism, and weak and failing states - to assess the intersections among the three major threats that may open up new pathways to WMD proliferation.

As used in this project, the term "threat convergence" refers to the dangers emerging from new dynamics that tie failing states and terrorism to WMD proliferation. No longer bound by the rules of a system of states, criminal and illicit networks flourish in the facilitative environments of ungoverned spaces, cultural enclaves in strong states, and in weak and failing states. These networks of criminals and traffickers, and the volatile settings that enable their activities, create an entirely different world from that which was originally envisioned by the crafters of WMD policies and institutions.

The project calls for an expert planning meeting, a series of national and international conferences, a collaborative research project drawing on expertise from the three fields, a major publication and a dissemination strategy targeting policymakers. The project builds on The Fund for Peace's expertise in the field of weak and failing states, as well as our contacts with scholars and practitioners in the associated security fields of WMD proliferation and terrorism studies, and partnerships with other relevant organizations. A fresh body of research and thought must be crafted to capture the threats emerging from the three most dangerous remains of the past century, namely:

1. the prevalence of states incapable of securing their territories or effectively governing their citizens;
2. the danger of further WMD (chemical, biological and nuclear) genies being let out of the bottle through widening access to technology, materials and know-how; and
3. a growing number of terrorist actors committed to the defeat of their adversaries through the use of catastrophic acts to achieve their political aims.

To meet these challenges, the intended outcomes of the project are to:

• Foster research collaboration among the experts in the three fields;
• Produce fresh approaches on illicit transnational networks and linkages among them;
• Make specific policy recommendations to thwart the threat of WMD proliferation through such networks; and
• Present the findings and recommendations to policy makers and engage them in developing new approaches to nonproliferation strategies.

The project was launched at a high-level working group of experts from the three fields in April 2006. A larger conference will be held in the fall of 2006, followed by a collaborative research project.

For more information contact:
Patricia Taft
ptaft@fundforpeace.org
Phone: 202-223-7940 x203