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The Fund for Peace (FfP) is pleased to release its report Iraq
as a Failed State: Report #1. This is the first in a series of
six month reports by the FfP that will measure the effectiveness
of US policies in the country in building sustainable security.
The report concludes that the US invasion had an effect that went
far beyond its original goal of regime change. It precipitated the
final collapse of a state that had been deteriorating for years.
This complete collapse, which surprised the administration,
constitutes the gravest strategic miscalculation of the war.
Measuring progress since the invasion using twelve top conflict
indicators, the FfP found that four have worsened since the war,
three remained at about the same acutely high levels of tension,
one improved substantially - though it could backslide - and four
improved marginally.
The fundamental pre-war planning flaw was in not understanding how
states fail, how far Iraq had deteriorated in this regard, and
what would likely follow a military invasion. The security
meltdown over the first six months of the occupation is a
continuation of the persistent breakdown. Now it is responsibility
of the US to rebuild that state. The current strategy - to
fast-track the political transition - will not work because it
measures success solely on the speed with which the ancien regime
is replaced. It does not take into account the need to build the
institutions through which elected leaders must govern.
It will take a minimum of two years, perhaps more, to get through
the basics of reconstituting state institutions. But it can be
done if a strategic redirection is made. Three immediate policy
recommended are made concerning the economic package passed by
Congress, the need for creating a wider Iraqi leadership pool, and
the necessity to neutralize security threats from private
militias.
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