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In a recent report, The Fund for Peace (FfP) urges the formation
of a government of national unity in Iraq to derail the current
trends toward civil war.
From April 2004 to April 2005, all twelve indicators of conflict
have remained in alert. Over the last two years, paradoxically,
the risk of civil war increased when pivotal benchmarks were
achieved in the democratization process. A two-year trendline
that links indicators with key events shows heightened risk
when the Interim Governing Council was established in
June 2003, Saddam Hussein was captured in March 2004, and
sovereignty was transferred to the interim government in June 2004.
Dr. Pauline H. Baker, author of the report, states,
"We examine whether three major political expectations were
fulfilled, we review the lessons learned from this experience
for the upcoming elections later this year, and we provide
a strategic recommendation that is essential if the insurgency
is to be subdued and the trend toward civil conflict is to be averted."
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