The CAST methodology presents a framework for early warning and assessment of societies at risk of internal conflict and state collapse. The model can be used to enable the international community to take preventive action to stem conflict, prepare for peacekeeping and stability missions, assess conditions for sustainable security and provide metrics or measures of effectiveness for post-conflict reconstruction. For an example of how the methodology has been used, please see our Iraq reports.
The steps of the methodology are the following:
| 1.
| Pre-Assessment Steps
| 2.
| Rating the Twelve Indicators
| 3.
| Assessing the Core Five
| 4.
| Identifying STINGS
| 5.
| Building a Conflict Map
| | | | | | | | 1 | Pre-Assessment Steps
To prepare for Conflict Assessment:
- Collect relevant conflict data
- Develop a complete chronology of events
- Choose key dates for Trend Point assessment
| | | | | 2 | Rating the Twelve Indicators
The "What's Going On?" Step. Click on an indicator to see some examples of measures that may be included in the analysis of that indicator. These are neither exclusive nor exhaustive. You can add more measures, as appropriate.
Social Indicators
 1. Mounting Demographic Pressures
2. Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally Displaced Persons creating
Complex Humanitarian Emergencies
3. Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Group Paranoia
4. Chronic and Sustained Human Flight
Economic Indicators
5. Uneven Economic Development along Group Lines
6. Sharp and/or Severe Economic Decline
Political Indicators
7. Criminalization and/or Delegitimization of the State
8. Progressive Deterioration of Public Services
9. Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of Law and Widespread
Violation of Human Rights
10. Security Apparatus Operates as a "State Within a State"
11. Rise of Factionalized Elites
12. Intervention of Other States or External Political Actors
Indicators measure the key social, economic, political and military conditions within a state at a given date.
Basic Steps:
- Rate each indicator on scale of 0 (low intensity) to 10 (high intensity)
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- Total ratings to get trend points
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- Build aggregate and individual indicator trend lines
| | | | | 3 | Assessing the Core Five
The "What Have We Got to Work With?" Step. Core Five assessment helps determine the capacity of core institutions to manage the situation at hand or a state's "capacity to cope".
For sustainable security, a state should have the following Core Five:
- A competent domestic police force and corrections system
- An efficient and functioning civil service or professional bureaucracy
- An independent judicial system that works under the rule of law
- A professional and disciplined military accountable to a legitimate civilian government
- A strong executive/legislative leadership capable of national governance
| | | | | 4 | Identifying STINGS
The "What Else is Relevant?" Step. STINGS are the unanticipated factors that act as catalysts to accelerate or decelerate the immediate risk of conflict
STINGS is an acronym used here to describe:
- Surprises (e.g., currency collapse)
- Triggers (e.g., assassinations, coup d'etats)
- Idiosyncrasies (e.g., non-contiguous territory, a deference to authority)
- National Temperaments (e.g., cultural or religious perspectives)
- Spoilers (e.g., disgruntled followers, excluded parties)
| | | | | 5 | Building a Conflict Map
The "What's the Big Picture?" Step. Plotting the course of the conflict for each significant date allows one to visually depict the potential for the conflict to turn violent or to be resolved.
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- Total ratings to get trend points
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| | | | | | Copyright (C) 2006 The Fund for Peace
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